An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship and Transmission Mechanism Between Inflation and Economic Growth: the Case of Indonesia, 1980-2012

Much as economists seem to be in total agreement that high rates of inflation impede economic growth, there isless consensus about the precise relationship between inflation and economic performance, and the mechanismby which inflation affects economic activity at the macroeconomic level. The cardinal aim of this study washenceforth to find out if a meaningful relationship does exist between inflation and economic growth inIndonesias case and to further ascertain the transmission mechanism by which inflation affects economicgrowth. Most of the analyses herein were done using Econometric Views (Eviews7). A stationarity test wascarried out using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test with the aim of finding out the order of integration ofthe individual series under consideration. GDP and CPI which were used as perfect proxies for economicgrowth and inflation respectively were found to be stationary after first difference. The two variables were alsofound to be Cointegrated and upon running Granger Causality tests under VECM environment, a long-rununidirectional causality from economic growth to inflation was detected. On the basis of the impulse responsefunction (IRF) and the long-run Cointegrating equations, it was also found out that inflation and economicgrowth exhibit an inverse relationship both in the short and long-run. All these events showed that a meaningfulrelationship between economic growth and inflation does exist.The results of the transmission mechanism showed that if inflation increases by 1%, the level of investmentdecreases by 0.091680% whereas total factor productivity (TFP) decreases by 0.003295% hence confirmingthe theoretical and empirical literature postulations that the level of investment and TFP indeed serve astransmission channels from inflation to economic growth.Keyword : Inflation, Economic Growth, Indonesia, Cointegration, Granger Causality, Transmissionmechanism, Level of investment, TFP

Implementasi Program Fun Learning dengan Metode Gerakan Tiga Bahasa dalam Pembelajaran Al-qur’an di Betong Junior Khalifah School Thailand

Tujuan pembelajaran Al-Qur’an sendiri agar anak-anak mampu membaca, menulis, serta mengamalkan nilai-nilai Al-Qur’an dalam kehidupan mereka sehari-hari. Penelitian ini ditujukan untuk mengetahui sejauh mana keberhasilan anak-anak dalam mengingat, memahami, dan mampu mengulang kembali apa yang mereka katakan, sehingga dengan seiring waktu mereka dapat menghafalnya dengan metode gerakan tiga bahasa sesuai dengan bahasa Al-Qur’an yaitu bahasa arab, bahasa yang mereka gunakan sehari-hari yaitu bahasa Thailand, serta untuk menambah kosakata mereka dalam bahasa melayu. Penelitian ini juga di latarbelakangi oleh pembelajaran ataupun aktivitas pembelajaran yang pasif, karena hanya melibatkan apa yang disampaikan oleh guru dalam pembelajarannya. Subjek penelitian ini adalah siswa sekolah dasar kelas 2, 3 dan 4 serta beberapa guru di sekolah tersebut. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah kualitatif. Dari hasil penelitian ini dapat dilihat antusias murid dalam menggunakan metode ini, serta ditemukannya hal lain bahwa dalam pembelajaran pendampingan guru serta pemilihan metode dan media pembelajaran menjadi hal yang sangat penting

Kapasitas Dinas Sosial Dalam Penanggulangan Bencana Erupsi Gunung Sinabung Melalui Pendistribusian Jaminan Hidup Dan Isian Hunian Tetap Masyarakat Desa Berastepu

This study aims to find out and describe how the capacity of the Social Service in overcoming the eruption of Mount Sinabung through the distribution of life insurance and the filling of permanent housing for the people of Berastepu village. The method used is a descriptive method with a qualitative approach through data collection such as interviews, observations, documentation, and literature studies. The results of research in the field, researchers found that the capacity of the Social Service in disaster management of the Mount Sinabung eruption through the distribution of life insurance and the filling of permanent housing for the berastepu village community has not been maximized. The Social Service Office has distributed assistance to the people of Berastepu Village, but there are still problems seen from human resource indicators that have not been maximized where the employee's educational background is not in accordance with the placement of positions, then facilities and infrastructure, especially work rooms that have not provided comfort for employees, and organizational management indicators, especially information collection, have not been maximized where there is a lag in some community data so that  resulting in late distribution of aid

A Portfolio Approach to NLOS and Multipath Mitigation in Dense Urban Areas

Non-line-of-sight (NLOS) reception and multipath interference are major causes of poor GNSS positioning accuracy in dense urban environments. They are commonly grouped together. However, both the mechanisms by which they cause position errors and many of the techniques for mitigating those errors are quite different [1]. For example, correlation-based multipath mitigation has no effect on the errors caused by NLOS reception. University College London (UCL) has investigated the performance of a number of multipath and/or NLOS mitigation techniques in dense urban areas, including C/N0-based solution weighting [2], advanced consistency checking [3], dual-polarization NLOS detection [4] and vector tracking [5]. In this paper, we present a new multipath detection technique based on comparing the measured C/N0 on multiple frequencies and also new dual-polarization results. Meanwhile, other researchers have demonstrated NLOS detection using a panoramic camera [6, 7] or 3D city model [8, 9] and detection of NLOS and multipath using an antenna array [10]. All of these techniques bring some improvement in positioning performance in urban environments, but none of them eliminate the effects of both NLOS reception and multipath interference completely. As the different techniques are largely complementary, best performance is obtained by using several of them in combination, a portfolio approach. This paper comprises three parts. The first presents a feasibility study on a new multipath detection technique using multi-frequency C/N0 measurements. Constructive multipath interference results in an increase in the measured C/N0, whereas destructive multipath interference results in a decrease. As the phase of a reflected signal with respect to its directly received counterpart depends on the wavelength, the multipath interference may be constructive on one frequency and destructive on another. Thus, by comparing the difference in measured C/N0 between two frequencies with what would normally be expected for that signal at that elevation angle, strong multipath interference may be detected. However, the converse is not true because, depending on the path delay, the phase of the multipath interference may also be consistent across the two frequencies. Consistency across three frequencies in the presence of multipath interference is much less likely than consistency across two. Therefore, by comparing C/N0 measured across three (or more) frequencies, the chance of detection is improved substantially, noting that reliability is less critical as part of a portfolio approach to multipath detection than for a stand-alone technique. Experimental results are presented demonstrating the potential of this approach using GPS and GLONASS data collected in Central London. The second part of the paper presents the results of the first multi-constellation test of the dual-polarization NLOS detection technique pioneered at UCL [4]. This separately correlates the right hand circularly polarized (RHCP) and left hand circularly polarized (LHCP) outputs of a dual-polarization antenna and differences the resulting C/N0 measurements, producing a result that is positive for directly received signals and negative for most NLOS signals. Data was collected at six different sites in Central London and NLOS reception of both GPS and GLONASS signals was detected. Position solutions with the NLOS signals removed are compared with the corresponding all-satellite solutions. The final part of the paper addresses the portfolio approach to NLOS and multipath mitigation. Each technique is assessed qualitatively for its ease of implementation and its efficiency at detecting or directly mitigating both NLOS reception and multipath mitigation. A compatibility matrix is then presented showing which techniques may be combined without conflict. Suitable portfolios are then proposed both for professional-grade and for consumer-grade user equipment. References [1] Groves, P. D., Principles of GNSS, inertial, and multi-sensor integrated navigation systems, Second Edition, Artech House, 2013. [2] Jiang, Z., P. Groves, W. Y. Ochieng, S. Feng, C. D. Milner, and P. G. Mattos, “Multi-Constellation GNSS Multipath Mitigation Using Consistency Checking,” Proc. ION GNSS 2011. [3] Jiang, Z., and P. Groves, “GNSS NLOS and Multipath Error Mitigation using Advanced Multi-Constellation Consistency Checking with Height Aiding,” Proc. ION GNSS 2012. [4] Jiang, Z., and P. D. Groves, “NLOS GPS Signal Detection Using A Dual-Polarisation Antenna,” GPS Solutions, 2012, DOI: 10.1007/s10291-012-0305-5. [5] Hsu, L.-T., P. D. Groves, and S.-S. Jan, “Assessment of the Multipath Mitigation Effect of Vector Tracking in an Urban Environment,” Proc ION Pacific PNT, 2013. [6] Marais, J., M. Berbineau, and M. Heddebaut, “Land Mobile GNSS Availability and Multipath Evaluation Tool,” IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, Vol. 54, No. 5, 2005, pp. 1697-1704. [7] Meguro, J., et al., “GPS Multipath Mitigation for Urban Area Using Omnidirectional Infrared Camera,” IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2009, pp. 22-30. [8] Obst, M., S. Bauer, and G. Wanielik, “Urban Multipath Detection and mitigation with Dynamic 3D Maps for Reliable Land Vehicle Localization,” Proc. IEEE/ION PLANS 2012. [9] Peyraud, S., et al., “About Non-Line-Of-Sight Satellite Detection and Exclusion in a 3D Map-Aided Localization Algorithm,” Sensors, Vol. 13, 2013, pp. 829-847. [10] Keshvadi, M. H., A. Broumandan, and G. Lachapelle, “Analysis of GNSS Beamforming and Angle of Arrival Estimation in Multipath Environments," Proc ION ITM, San Diego, CA, January 2011, pp. 427-435

Kapasitas Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah Karo Dalam Penanganan Rumah Relokasi Siosar Tahap I

This study aims to determine and describe how the Karo Regional Disaster Management Agency's Capacity in Handling Siosar Relocation Houses Phase I, with a descriptive method with a qualitative approach that explains the phenomenon in depth through data collection such as interviews, observations, documentation, and literature studies. In this study, we used Horton's theory with indicators of organizational capacity assessment, including human resources, infrastructure, technology and financial resources, strategic leadership, programs and management, network cooperation and relationships with other parties. Through this study, researchers found that the capacity of the Karo Regional Disaster Management Agency in handling Siosar Phase I Relocation Houses was not maximized, judging from the indicators of human resources that were not maximized, where the educational background of employees was not in accordance with position placement, related to infrastructure, technology, and resources. related to the chief executive's strategic leadership not interacting with employees; related to programs and management where lack of knowledge causes errors in writing sub-districts in house certificates in stage I; and related to relationships with other parties that are not good due to a lack of communication and coordination, resulting in a lack of communication