35 research outputs found
Enhanced bedside mortality prediction combining point-of-care lactate and the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score in patients hospitalised with suspected infection in southeast Asia: a cohort study
Background: Simple, bedside prediction of infection-related mortality in low-resource settings is crucial for triage and resource-utilisation decisions. We aimed to evaluate mortality prediction by combining point-of-care venous lactate with the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score in adult patients admitted to hospital with suspected infection in southeast Asia.
Methods: We performed a cohort study by prospectively enrolling patients aged 18 years or older who had been admitted to hospital within the previous 24 h for suspected infection (with at least three documented systemic manifestations of infection according to the 2012 Surviving Sepsis Campaign) at Sunpasitthiprasong Hospital in Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand (derivation cohort). Venous lactate concentration was determined by a point-of-care device and multiple scores were developed. We then evaluated candidate 28-day mortality prediction models combining qSOFA and the lactate scores. A final model was compared with the qSOFA score, a lactate score, and a modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score for mortality discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Mortality discrimination of the qSOFA-lactate score was then verified in an external, prospectively enrolled, multinational cohort in southeast Asia.
Findings: Between March 1, 2013, and Jan 26, 2017, 5001 patients were enrolled in the derivation cohort; 4980 had point-of-care lactate data available and were eligible for analysis, and 816 died within 28 days of enrolment. The discrimination for 28-day mortality prediction of a qSOFA-lactate score combining the qSOFA score and a lactate score was superior to that of the qSOFA score alone (AUROC 0·78 [95% CI 0·76–0·80] vs 0·68 [0·67–0·70]; p<0·0001) and similar to a modified SOFA score (0·77 [0·75–0·78]; p=0·088). A lactate score alone had superior discrimination compared with the qSOFA score (AUROC 0·76 [95% CI 0·74–0·78]; p<0·0001). 815 patients were enrolled in the external validation cohort and 792 had point-of-care lactate data and were included in the analysis; the qSOFA-lactate score (AUROC 0·77 [95% CI 0·73–0·82]) showed significantly improved 28-day mortality discrimination compared with the qSOFA score alone (0·69 [0·63–0·74]; p<0·0001).
Interpretation: In southeast Asia, rapid, bedside assessments based on point-of-care lactate concentration combined with the qSOFA score can identify patients at risk of sepsis-related mortality with greater accuracy than the qSOFA score alone, and with similar accuracy to a modified SOFA score.
Funding: National Institutes of Health, Wellcome Trust
Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2017
© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Previous attempts to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases have focused only on specific disease conditions, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. In this study, we aimed to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases globally, providing a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis on geographical and time trends from 1990 to 2017. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, we estimated the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality attributable to chronic respiratory diseases through an analysis of deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and years of life lost (YLL) by GBD super-region, from 1990 to 2017, stratified by age and sex. Specific diseases analysed included asthma, COPD, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, pneumoconiosis, and other chronic respiratory diseases. We also assessed the contribution of risk factors (smoking, second-hand smoke, ambient particulate matter and ozone pollution, household air pollution from solid fuels, and occupational risks) to chronic respiratory disease-attributable DALYs. Findings: In 2017, 544·9 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 506·9–584·8) worldwide had a chronic respiratory disease, representing an increase of 39·8% compared with 1990. Chronic respiratory disease prevalence showed wide variability across GBD super-regions, with the highest prevalence among both males and females in high-income regions, and the lowest prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. The age-sex-specific prevalence of each chronic respiratory disease in 2017 was also highly variable geographically. Chronic respiratory diseases were the third leading cause of death in 2017 (7·0% [95% UI 6·8–7·2] of all deaths), behind cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. Deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases numbered 3 914 196 (95% UI 3 790 578–4 044 819) in 2017, an increase of 18·0% since 1990, while total DALYs increased by 13·3%. However, when accounting for ageing and population growth, declines were observed in age-standardised prevalence (14·3% decrease), age-standardised death rates (42·6%), and age-standardised DALY rates (38·2%). In males and females, most chronic respiratory disease-attributable deaths and DALYs were due to COPD. In regional analyses, mortality rates from chronic respiratory diseases were greatest in south Asia and lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, also across both sexes. Notably, although absolute prevalence was lower in south Asia than in most other super-regions, YLLs due to chronic respiratory diseases across the subcontinent were the highest in the world. Death rates due to interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis were greater than those due to pneumoconiosis in all super-regions. Smoking was the leading risk factor for chronic respiratory disease-related disability across all regions for men. Among women, household air pollution from solid fuels was the predominant risk factor for chronic respiratory diseases in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, while ambient particulate matter represented the leading risk factor in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, and in the Middle East and north Africa super-region. Interpretation: Our study shows that chronic respiratory diseases remain a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, with growth in absolute numbers but sharp declines in several age-standardised estimators since 1990. Premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases seems to be highest in regions with less-resourced health systems on a per-capita basis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries
Early Management of Community-Acquired Sepsis in a Regional Thai Referral Hospital: a Prospective Observational Study
Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2017Purpose: The epidemiology and management of sepsis is poorly characterized in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: We performed a prospective observational cohort study of adults with community-acquired sepsis in a 1,420-bed regional referral hospital in northeast Thailand. Sepsis was defined as suspected infection plus organ dysfunction. Results: Between March 2013 and February 2014, 932 patients with sepsis were enrolled. Five hundred twelve (55%) were male and the mean age was 54 years. Eighty three percent of patients were transferred from other hospitals. Eighty four percent of patients were first evaluated in the Emergency Department, where median length of stay was 25 minutes. In the first day after presentation to the study hospital, the majority had blood cultures ordered (80%) and received antibiotics (84%). Most patients were admitted to the general medical wards; 15% were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) within the first hospital day. Patients admitted to the ICU had similar demographics and pre-existing co-morbidities but were more critically ill, and were and more likely to receive all measured sepsis management interventions. In-hospital mortality was 9% (87/932) and 28-day mortality was 22% (203/932). The 28-day mortality was significantly higher for patients admitted to the ICU on the first day (45% [63/139] vs. 18% [140/793], p<0.001). Conclusions: Sepsis in a regional referral hospital in rural Thailand, where some resources are limited, is commonly managed on general medical wards despite high rates of respiratory failure and shock. Twenty-eight-day mortality is comparable to some high-resource settings
Presentation, management, and outcomes of sepsis in adults and children admitted to a rural Ugandan hospital: A prospective observational cohort study
<div><p>Objectives</p><p>Limited data are available on sepsis in low-resource settings, particularly outside of urban referral centers. We conducted a prospective observational single-center cohort study in May 2013 to assess the presentation, management and outcomes of adult and pediatric patients admitted with sepsis to a community hospital in rural Uganda.</p><p>Methods</p><p>We consecutively screened all patients admitted to medical wards who met sepsis criteria. We evaluated eligible patients within 24 hours of presentation and 24–48 hours after admission, and followed them until hospital discharge. In addition to chart review, mental status evaluation, peripheral capillary oxygen saturation, and point-of-care venous whole blood lactate and glucose testing were performed.</p><p>Results</p><p>Of 56 eligible patients, we analyzed data on 51 (20 adults and 31 children). Median age was 8 years (IQR 2–23 years). Sepsis accounted for a quarter of all adult and pediatric medical ward admissions during the study period. HIV prevalence among adults was 30%. On enrollment, over half of patients had elevated point-of-care whole blood lactate, few were hypoglycemic or had altered mental status, and one third were hypoxic. Over 80% of patients received at least one antibiotic, all severely hypoxic patients received supplemental oxygen, and half of patients with elevated lactate received fluid resuscitation. The most common causes of sepsis were malaria and pneumonia. In-hospital mortality was 3.9%.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>This study highlights the importance of sepsis among adult and pediatric patients admitted to a rural Ugandan hospital and underscores the need for continued research on sepsis in low resource settings.</p></div