Understanding the national performance of flood forecasting models to guide incident management and investment

The preparation of routine flood guidance statements and formulation of incident management strategies requires national operating agencies to have a firm understanding of the performance of flood forecasting models. Studies of flood forecasting model performance are commonly evaluated on a groupedcatchment or local basis and can lack the analytical consistency required for integration into coherent national assessments. Here, the first nationally consistent analysis of flood forecasting model performance across England and Wales is presented. Application of the assessment framework, accounting for regional and model-type differences, yields a national overview of relative forecasting capability for models in current operational use. To achieve extensive site coverage, information from many existing local performance studies are pooled into a single structure for analysis under a national framework. The performance information spanning a variety of local models is also compared against the area-wide national G2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed model. An integrated national assessment gives an evidence base of model performance useful for guiding strategic planning and investment in flood forecasting models. A concise single-page Performance Summary has been created for each site model that contains performance statistics, forecast hydrographs and catchment properties to aid operational use. A prototype web portal has been developed to make information on forecasting model performance more accessible and understandable for end-users

A systematic review of biomarkers in Takotsubo syndrome : A focus on better understanding the pathophysiology

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Comparison of intramyocellular lipid metabolism in patients with diabetes and male athletes

Contributions D.D., A.H., S.G., S.P. and M.D. conceived the study and together with L.v.L., G.L., F.T. obtained the grant funding. AM executed the patient screening, recruitment, intervention planning, carried out all study investigations under respective specialist supervision (A.H./D.C./D.D. for magnetic resonance spectroscopy, F.T./G.L./D.D. for stable isotope investigation, S.G. for exercise intervention, S.P. for clinical supervision/management of diabetes as required, M.D. for all molecular laboratory analyses, A.M. analysed all data and performed statistical analysis under the supervision of G.H. L.v.L. provided expert advice in athletic physiology. Lipidomic analyses were carried out in P.W. laboratory. Blood/skeletal muscle enrichment analyses were carried out in B.F./F.T.-G.L. laboratories respectively, with practical input from R.G. A.R. and L.C. contributed as overall help to deliver study assessments in a technical role. M.K.H. analysed the food diaries. D.E.N. contributed to manuscript writing. D.D. and M.D. were the PhD supervisors for A.M. whose PhD thesis was based on this work. All authors contributed their respective specialist sections in drafting the manuscript.Peer reviewe

Persistent Long-Term Structural, Functional, and Metabolic Changes After Stress-Induced (Takotsubo) Cardiomyopathy

The HEROIC study was funded by the British Heart Foundation Project Grant no. PG/15/108/31928 (D.K.D.), the Josephine Lansdell British Medical Association 2015 Award (D.K.D.), and the Chief Scientist Office CGA-16-4 Catalytic Grant (D.K.D). D.E.N. is supported by the British Heart Foundation (CH/09/002) and a Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Award (WT103782AIA).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Structural and functional brain changes in acute takotsubo syndrome

Background: Takotsubo syndrome mimics an acute myocardial infarction, typically in the aftermath of mental or physical stress. Objectives: The mechanism by which emotional processing in the context of stress leads to significant cardiac injury is poorly understood, so a full exploration of brain structure and function in takotsubo syndrome patients merits investigation. Methods: Twenty-five acute (<5 days) takotsubo patients and 25 control subjects were recruited into this observational cross-sectional study. Surface-based morphometry was carried out on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) brain scans to extract cortical morphology based on volume, thickness, and surface area with the use of Freesurfer. Cortical morphology general linear models were corrected for age, sex, photoperiod, and total brain volume. Resting-state functional MRI and diffusion tensor tractography images were preprocessed and analyzed with the use of the Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the Brain Diffusion Toolbox and Functional Connectivity Toolbox. Results: There was significantly smaller total white matter and subcortical gray matter volumes in takotsubo (P < 0.001), with smaller total brain surface area but increased total cortical thickness (both P < 0.001). Individual gray matter regions (hippocampus and others) were significantly smaller in takotsubo (P < 0.001); only thalamus and insula were larger (P < 0.001). There was significant hyperfunctional and hypofunctional connectivity in multiple areas, including thalamus-amygdala-insula and basal ganglia (P < 0.05). All structural tractography connections were increased in takotsubo (P < 0.05). Conclusions: The authors showed smaller gray and white matter volumes driven by smaller cortical surface area, but increased cortical thickness and structural tractography connections with bidirectional changes in functional connectivity linked to emotion, language, reasoning, perception, and autonomic control. These are interventional targets in takotsubo patients’ rehabilitation

Placebo Adherence and Its Association with Morbidity and Mortality in the Studies of Left Ventricular Dysfunction

A provocative finding from several double-blind clinical trials has been the association between greater adherence to placebo study medication and better health outcomes. We used data from the Studies of Left Ventricular Dysfunction (SOLVD) Treatment Trial (SOLVD-TT) and the SOLVD Prevention Trial (SOLVD-PT) to examine whether such associations could be validated and to examine several sources of bias and potential confounding. Survival analytic methods were used to estimate the association between placebo adherence and several health outcomes, employing a number of modeling techniques to test for the existence of alternative explanations for the association. Higher adherence was defined as having taken ≥75% of prescribed study medication. Higher placebo adherence was associated with improved overall survival in both SOLVD-TT and SOLVD-PT [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.35 to 0.79 and HR = 0.52, 95%CI: 0.38 to 0.71, respectively]. Associations were similar for fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular or coronary heart disease events. Adjustment for both modifiable and non-modifiable cardiac risk factors (including age, gender, diabetes, blood pressure, smoking, weight, alcohol use, and levels of education) had minimal effect on the strength of the association. Little evidence of bias was found as an explanation for this relationship. In these two trials, better adherence to placebo was associated with markedly superior health outcomes, including total in-study mortality and incident cardiovascular events. No important confounders were identified. These data suggest there may exist strong but unrecognized determinants of health outcomes for which placebo adherence is a marker

Collision, Collusion and Coincidence: Pop Art’s Fairground Parallel

This article looks at parallel methods, motivations and modes of consumption between formative British pop art and British fairground art. I focus on two strands, the emergent critical work of the Independent Group and the school of artists based at the Royal College of Art under the nominal leadership of Peter Blake. I use iconographical and iconological methods to compare the content of the art, and then examine how pop art tried to create both a critical and playful distancing from established rules and practices of the artistic canon. I focus on non-institutional cultural groupings and diffuse production and consumption models

Finished Genome of the Fungal Wheat Pathogen Mycosphaerella graminicola Reveals Dispensome Structure, Chromosome Plasticity, and Stealth Pathogenesis.

The plant-pathogenic fungus Mycosphaerella graminicola (asexual stage: Septoria tritici) causes septoria tritici blotch, a disease that greatly reduces the yield and quality of wheat. This disease is economically important in most wheat-growing areas worldwide and threatens global food production. Control of the disease has been hampered by a limited understanding of the genetic and biochemical bases of pathogenicity, including mechanisms of infection and of resistance in the host. Unlike most other plant pathogens, M. graminicola has a long latent period during which it evades host defenses. Although this type of stealth pathogenicity occurs commonly in Mycosphaerella and other Dothideomycetes, the largest class of plant-pathogenic fungi, its genetic basis is not known. To address this problem, the genome of M. graminicolawas sequenced completely. The finished genome contains 21 chromosomes, eight of which could be lost with no visible effect on the fungus and thus are dispensable. This eight-chromosome dispensome is dynamic in field and progeny isolates, is different from the core genome in gene and repeat content, and appears to have originated by ancient horizontal transfer from an unknown donor. Synteny plots of the M. graminicola chromosomes versus those of the only other sequenced Dothideomycete, Stagonospora nodorum, revealed conservation of gene content but not order or orientation, suggesting a high rate of intra-chromosomal rearrangement in one or both species. This observed “mesosynteny” is very different from synteny seen between other organisms. A surprising feature of the M. graminicolagenome compared to other sequenced plant pathogens was that it contained very few genes for enzymes that break down plant cell walls, which was more similar to endophytes than to pathogens. The stealth pathogenesis of M. graminicola probably involves degradation of proteins rather than carbohydrates to evade host defenses during the biotrophic stage of infection and may have evolved from endophytic ancestors