The nature of engineering change in a complex product development cycle

The complex dynamics of modern business mean companies are constantly exposed to rapid and radical change. The way by which a company copes with change, can act as an insight into its propensity for sustainable profitability and hence predicted longevity. In complex product development cycles, engineering change must be managed as efficiently and effectively as possible. This paper presents a case study of one hundred engineering changes, taken over a sixty seven day period, of a complex product development cycle, during the detailed design phase of the project. It establishes the specific engineering change process utilised as a reactive process, which takes a mean of 126 days to complete its impact analysis phase and compliments this with a review of change stimuli and effects. It was found that the stimuli behind change are frequently not understood, with 68.4% reasons being classified as 'other'. The most effected entities were found to be the bill of materials, baseline and structural changes respectively; however it was found that each specific stimulus had a unique effect profile, which differed from the cumulative effect profile for all change stimuli

The influence of remote aerosol forcing from industrialised economies on the future evolution of East and West African rainfall

Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near term (10-40 year) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored. Whilst existing literature links future aerosol declines to a northward shift of Sahel rainfall, existing climate projections rely on RCP scenarios that do not explore the range of air quality drivers. Here we present projections from two emission scenarios that better envelope the range of potential aerosol emissions. More aggressive emission cuts results in northward shifts of the tropical rain-bands whose signal can emerge from expected internal variability on short, 10-20 year, time horizons. We also show for the first time that this northward shift also impacts East Africa, with evidence of delays to both onset and withdrawal of the Short Rains. However, comparisons of rainfall impacts across models suggest that only certain aspects of both the West and East African model responses may be robust, given model uncertainties. This work motivates the need for wider exploration of air quality scenarios in the climate science community to assess the robustness of these projected changes and to provide evidence to underpin climate adaptation in Africa. In particular, revised estimates of emission impacts of legislated measures every 5-10 years would have a value in providing near term climate adaptation information for African stakeholders

COVID-19 Severity Among American Indians and Alaska Natives in 16 States - January 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021

Objective: To compare rates and risk factors of severe COVID-19-related outcomes between American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) and non-Hispanic White people (NHW). Methods: Aggregate Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), COVID-19-related risk factor, hospitalization, and mortality data were obtained from 16 states for January 1, 2020-March 31, 2021. Generalized estimating equation Poisson regression models calculated age-adjusted cumulative incidences, incidence ratios (IR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing AI/AN and NHW persons by age, sex, and county-level SVI status. Results: Race data were missing for 42.7% of COVID-19 cases, 24.7% of hospitalizations, and 10.1% of deaths. Risk of AI/AN COVID-19 mortality was 2.6 times that of NHW persons (IR 2.6, 95% CI: 1.7 – 3.4); risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization among AI/AN persons was 3.5 times that of NHW (IR: 3.5, 95% CI: 2.7 – 4.3). Severe COVID-19 outcomes were significantly higher for AI/AN persons compared to NHW persons across all age and sex groups. There was no statistically significant difference in COVID-19 outcomes by SVI status. Associations between severe COVID-19 outcomes and co-morbid risk factors were inconsistent. Conclusions: Results describe increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes for AI/AN persons compared to NHW persons despite quality issues in public health surveillance data. Data linkages and improved ascertainment reduce race/ethnicity misclassification and improve data quality. COVID-19-related health burdens among AI/AN persons warrant improved access for AI/AN communities to medical countermeasures and healthcare resources

Male Choice in the Stream-Anadromous Stickleback Complex

Studies of mating preferences and pre-mating reproductive isolation have often focused on females, but the potential importance of male preferences is increasingly appreciated. We investigated male behavior in the context of reproductive isolation between divergent anadromous and stream-resident populations of threespine stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus, using size-manipulated females of both ecotypes. Specifically, we asked if male courtship preferences are present, and if they are based on relative body size, non-size aspects of ecotype, or other traits. Because male behaviors were correlated with each other, we conducted a principal components analysis on the correlations and ran subsequent analyses on the principal components. The two male ecotypes differed in overall behavioral frequencies, with stream-resident males exhibiting consistently more vigorous and positive courtship than anadromous males, and an otherwise aggressive behavior playing a more positive role in anadromous than stream-resident courtship. We observed more vigorous courtship toward smaller females by (relatively small) stream-resident males and the reverse pattern for (relatively large) anadromous males. Thus size-assortative male courtship preferences may contribute to reproductive isolation in this system, although preferences are far from absolute. We found little indication of males responding preferentially to females of their own ecotype independent of body size

Establishing a large prospective clinical cohort in people with head and neck cancer as a biomedical resource: head and neck 5000

BACKGROUND: Head and neck cancer is an important cause of ill health. Survival appears to be improving but the reasons for this are unclear. They could include evolving aetiology, modifications in care, improvements in treatment or changes in lifestyle behaviour. Observational studies are required to explore survival trends and identify outcome predictors. METHODS: We are identifying people with a new diagnosis of head and neck cancer. We obtain consent that includes agreement to collect longitudinal data, store samples and record linkage. Prior to treatment we give participants three questionnaires on health and lifestyle, quality of life and sexual history. We collect blood and saliva samples, complete a clinical data capture form and request a formalin fixed tissue sample. At four and twelve months we complete further data capture forms and send participants further quality of life questionnaires. DISCUSSION: This large clinical cohort of people with head and neck cancer brings together clinical data, patient-reported outcomes and biological samples in a single co-ordinated resource for translational and prognostic research

Democratic transitions and Maoist insurgency: The Shining Path of Peru and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist)

This study compares outcomes of two major insurgency movements often noted for their harsh treatment of civilians, the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M) and Peru\u27s Shining Path. Both movements began as small isolated conflicts in the midst of a democratic transition, espoused similar ideologies with little regard for liberal democratic values or institutions, deployed comparably brutal tactics, and rose rapidly to seriously threaten the ruling state. Despite comparable origins, these insurgencies ended very differently. In Peru, the Shining Path was essentially defeated by the state in the years immediately following the 1992 capture of its leader, Abimael Guzmán. Meanwhile, in Nepal, the CPN-M fought to a negotiated entry into electoral politics in 2006 and currently holds major power in parliamentary politics. Why? Within the context of a democratic transition, what explains one Maoist insurgency\u27s decline and the other\u27s rise to power? Using a qualitative comparative historical approach, we provide a systematic examination of social and political forces associated with the outcome of each insurgency