Electoral observation missions promote competitive elections in autocracies

As elections have become more frequent across all regimes, Electoral Observation Missions (EOM) have increased their presence around their world. However, it has not always been clear whether EOM have an impact, and what exactly that is. Nasos Roussias and Rubén Ruiz-Rufino addressed this issue, examining elections from more than 100 countries around the world between 1976 and 2009. They show that EOM presence results in improvements of the competitiveness of elections, but only in autocracies, where they reduce margins of victory for incumbents and increase the likelihood that the opposition will take over, whereas they have no traceable impact in democracies

Making the breakthrough into Parliament boosts the electoral success of smaller political parties

Establishing the impact of legislative representation on parties’ subsequent electoral outcomes is very difficult due to how different parliamentary and non-parliamentary parties look. To address this problem, Elias Dinas, Pedro Riera and Nasos Roussias used an element that is quite common in multiparty systems – that is, legal thresholds of representation at the national level- and compared parties that are slightly above and barely below it. Looking at all post-WWII democracies with a national threshold of representation, they show that presence in parliament increases parties’ vote shares in the next election

Staying in the First League: Parliamentary Representation and the Electoral Success of Small Parties

Why are some small parties successful whereas others wither away? Despite the voluminous literature on parties and party families, we have a limited understanding of what explains small party success. Most studies tend to emphasize the role of social cleavages and electoral systems. Instead, we propose a new institutional explanation that treats entering parliament as a key resource for small parties. Parliamentary entrance signals organizational capacity and candidates’ appeal, and reduces uncertainty about parties’ ideological profile. Taking advantage of the discontinuities generated by thresholds of representation, we estimate the causal effect of entering parliament on the future vote shares of small parties. We use a new data set that covers all post-WWII democracies with a national threshold of representation. Results indicate that presence in parliament increases parties’ vote share in the next election. Importantly, entering parliament is more important for parties in new democracies, where party branding is weak and the need for signaling is high

“Tying Incumbents’ Hands”: The Effects of Election Monitoring on Electoral Outcome

Electoral observation missions (EOM) are designed to promote improvements in democratic quality by overseeing elections, but how successful are they? We argue that EOM tie the hands of incumbents, who have to adjust their electoral misconduct strategies, thus opening up political competition and making it more likely that the opposition will do well. Moreover, we propose that monitoring effects are conditioned by regime type, expecting that EOM presence has a stronger impact on electoral competition in autocracies than in democracies. Using a dataset of 580 parliamentary and presidential elections in 108 countries between 1976 and 2009 we find support for our theoretical claims. EOM increase electoral competitiveness in dictatorships by reducing margins of victory for incumbents, but leave competition unaffected in democracies. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that, contrary to previous findings, EOM increase the probability of electoral turnover in dictatorships but have no effect on democracies

Increasingly unequal turnout in Eastern European new democracies: Communist and transitional legacies versus new institutions

The thesis examines whether income inequality in post-Communist Eastern Europe depresses political engagement or increases the potential for conflict and instability. The thesis finds that while overall income inequality is correlated with lower political engagement and political engagement is stratified by income, income inequality does not appear to depress political engagement among the poor in post-Communist Eastern Europe. I use multilevel modeling to examine mass survey data from the survey done by Professors Whitefield and Evans as part of an ESCR-funded project as well the World Values Surveys

Staying in the first league: parliamentary representation and the electoral success of small parties

Why are some small parties successful whereas others wither away? Despite the voluminous literature on parties and party families, we have a limited understanding of what explains small party success. Most studies tend to emphasize the role of social cleavages and electoral systems. Instead, we propose a new institutional explanation that treats entering parliament as a key resource for small parties. Parliamentary entrance signals organizational capacity and candidates’ appeal, and reduces uncertainty about parties’ ideological profile. Taking advantage of the discontinuities generated by thresholds of representation, we estimate the causal effect of entering parliament on the future vote shares of small parties. We use a new data set that covers all post-WWII democracies with a national threshold of representation. Results indicate that presence in parliament increases parties’ vote share in the next election. Importantly, entering parliament is more important for parties in new democracies, where party branding is weak and the need for signaling is high

White coat effect in treated versus untreated hypertensive individuals: A case-control study using ambulatory and home blood pressure monitoring

Background: Some studies have shown a significant white coat effect (WCE) (i.e., difference between clinic blood pressure [CBP] and awake ambulatory blood pressure [ABP]) to be present not only in untreated but also in treated hypertensive individuals. This study aims to assess 1) the prevalence and the magnitude of the WCE in treated versus untreated hypertensive persons, and 2) the usefulness of home blood pressure (HBP) versus ABP in the detection of this phenomenon. Methods: A case-control study was conducted in 138 treated hypertensive patients and same number of sex- and age-matched untreated hypertensive subjects who had measurements of CBP (at least three visits), HBP, and ABP. Subjects with a WCE of >20/10 turn Hg (systolic/ diastolic) were classified as clinic reactors. Results: There was a trend for a larger WCE assessed by ABP monitoring in the untreated group (mean difference in systolic WCE, 1.8+/-22.2 mm Hg, 95% CI -2.0 to 5.5; diastolic 1.8+/-11.9 mm Mg, 95% CI -0.2 to 3.8) and for more untreated clinic reactors (27% untreated v 20% treated, odds ratio 1.5, 95% CI 0.9 to 2.7). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of HBP to detect clinic reactors correctly were 56%/62% (treated/untreated), 87%/84%, 52%/59%, and 89%/86%, respectively, with moderate agreement between HBP and ABP (kappa 0.42/0.46). Conclusions: In treated hypertensive patients, WCE seems to be reduced compared with that in untreated hypertensive persons but is not eliminated. In both untreated and treated hypertensive individuals HBP monitoring appears to be useful in the detection of the WCE, but it may not be appropriate as an alternative to the ABP method. (C) 2004 American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd

Estimating the Effect of Elite Communications on Public Opinion Using Instrumental Variables

A central question in the study of democratic polities is the extent to which elite opinion about public policy shapes and potentially manipulates public opinion on those issues. Existing empirical estimates of the effect of elite communication on individual opinion formation are, however, characterized by a number of serious methodological problems, and consequently, there is little in the way of compelling evidence that elites actually influence individual opinions. This paper proposes an identification strategy for estimating the causal effect of elite messages on public support for European integration employing instrumental variable estimation. The paper presents three main empirical results. First, we find that more negative elite messages about European integration do indeed decrease public support for Europe. Our analysis suggests that OLS estimates that ignore the endogeneity, omitted variables, and measurement problems that typically occur in estimating the effects of elite communication are biased, underestimating the magnitude of the effect of elite messages by fifty percent. Second, we find no evidence that this effect of elite messages varies for more politically aware individuals. Third, our estimates are inconsistent with a mainstreaming effect in which political awareness increases support for Europe in those political settings in which elites have a favorable consensus on the benefits of integration. This result is in sharp contrast to the OLS analysis that incorrectly suggests a mainstreaming effect

Treatment-induced changes in ambulatory arterial stiffness index: One-year prospective study and meta-analysis of evidence

The ambulatory arterial stiffness index (AASI) has been introduced as an index of arterial function, predicting cardiovascular events. However, treatment-induced changes in AASI are rather equivocal. This study aims to: (i) present the results of treatment-induced changes in AASI in untreated subjects with elevated blood pressure (BP), subjected to antihypertensive treatment for 1 year and (ii) perform a meta-analysis of studies reporting on treatment-induced change in AASI. A total of 104 subjects (mean age 51.4±10.3 years, 62% males, mean follow-up: 13.6±2.4 months) were analyzed. Despite significant reductions in 24-h ambulatory systolic/diastolic BP, pulse pressure and pulse wave velocity (mean change: -15.9±12/-10.4±7.6 mm Hg, -5.4±6.8 mm Hg, -0.7±1.9 m s -1, respectively, all P<0.05), there was no significant change (Follow up - Baseline) in AASI values (mean change: 0.01±0.17, P=not significant). The treatment-induced change in AASI was correlated with baseline AASI (r=-0.61), baseline 24-h pulse pressure (-0.26), treatment-induced change in 24-h pulse pressure (0.26) and in systolic/diastolic nocturnal dipping (-0.25/-0.40, respectively). Meta-analysis of eight trials (n=990) revealed a marginal decrease in AASI with antihypertensive treatment (pooled change: -0.018 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.033,-0.003)). When the analysis was restricted to data with renin-angiotensin system blockers (n=755, 76% of total), the results did not significantly change (pooled change -0.028 (95% CI -0.048, -0.007)). In conclusion, although AASI is an independent predictor of cardiovascular events, its response to antihypertensive treatment is only marginal and clinically uncertain, which may render its use as a therapeutic target in clinical practice questionable. © 2015 The Japanese Society of Hypertension All rights reserved