The New Operational Hydro-meteorological Ensemble Prediction System at Meteo-France and its representation interface for the French Service for Flood Prediction (SCHAPI)

International audienceThe coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) is developed at Meteo-France for many years. This fully distributed catchment model is used in an operationnal real-time mode since 2005 for producing mid-range ensemble streamflow forecasts based on the 51-member 10-day ECMWF EPS. New improvements have been recently implemented in this forecasting chain. First, the new version of the forecasting chain includes new atmopheric products from the ECWMF (EPS at the resolution of 0,25 over France). Then an improvement of the physics of the ISBA model (a new physical representation of the soil hydraulic conductivity) is now used. And finally, a past discharges assimilation system has been implemented in order to improve the initial states of the ensemble streamflow forecasts. These developpement were first tested in the framework of a Phd thesis, and are now evaluated in real-time conditions. This study aims to assess the improvements obtained by the new version of the forecasting chain. Several experiments were performed ton assess the effects of i) the high resolution atmospheric forcing ii) the new representation of the hydraulic conductivity iii) the data assimilation method and iv) the real-time framework. Tested on a 18-month period of reforecasts, the new chain presents significantly improved ensemble streamflow forecasts compared to the previous version. Finally, this system provides ensemble 10-day streamflow prediction to the French National Service for Flood Prediction (SCHAPI). A collaboration between Meteo-France and SCHAPI led to the development of a new website. This website shows the streamflow predictions for about 200 selected river stations over France (selected regarding their interest for flood warning) , as well as alerts for high flows (two levels of high flows corresponding to the levels of risk of the French flood warning system). It aims at providing to the French hydrological forecaters a real-time tool for mid-range flood awareness

Le nouveau système opérationnel de prévisions d'ensemble hydro-météorologiques à Météo-France, et l'interface utilisateur pour le service français de prévision des crues (SCHAPI)

International audienceThe coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) is developed at Meteo-France for many years. This fully distributed catchment model is used in an operationnal real-time mode since 2005 for producing mid-range ensemble streamflow forecasts based on the 51-member 10-day ECMWF EPS. New improvements have been recently implemented in this forecasting chain. First, the new version of the forecasting chain includes new atmopheric products from the ECWMF (EPS at the resolution of 0,25 ̊ over France). Then an improvement of the physics of the ISBA model (a new physical representation of the soil hydraulic conductivity) is now used. And finally, a past discharges assimilation system has been implemented in order to improve the initial states of the ensemble streamflow forecasts. These developpement were first tested in the framework of a Phd thesis, and are now evaluated in real-time conditions. This study aims to assess the improvements obtained by the new version of the forecasting chain. Several experiments were performed ton assess the effects of i) the high resolution atmospheric forcing ii) the new representation of the hydraulic conductivity iii) the data assimilation method and iv) the real-time framework. Tested on a 18-month period of reforecasts, the new chain presents significantly improved ensemble streamflow forecasts compared to the previous version. Finally, this system provides ensemble 10-day streamflow prediction to the French National Service for Flood Prediction (SCHAPI). A collaboration between Meteo-France and SCHAPI led to the development of a new website. This website shows the streamflow predictions for about 200 selected river stations over France (selected regarding their interest for flood warning) , as well as alerts for high flows (two levels of high flows corresponding to the levels of risk of the French flood warning system). It aims at providing to the French hydrological forecaters a real-time tool for mid-range flood awareness

Impact de l'amélioration du forçage météorologique, du profil de la conductivité hydraulique dans le sol et de l'assimilation de données sur un système opérationnel de prévision hydrologique d'ensemble sur la France

International audienceA Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting System (HEFS) known as SIMPE has been run over France in real time by Météo-France since 2004. The system combines the 51-member, 10-day ECMWF EPS atmospheric forcing at a 1.5° resolution with the ISBA-MODCOU physically-based distributed hydrological model to provide streamflow forecasts over France. The initial conditions for all the HEFS runs are provided by SIM; i.e., the ISBA-MODCOU model forced by the outputs of the mesoscale meteorological analysis system SAFRAN. A previous study introduced and tested two improvements of this system over a past period. These modifications consisted of an improved representation of the profile of hydraulic conductivity and the implementation of a data assimilation subsystem. The purpose of the present study was to test the HEFS and its two modifications in operational mode, with the new higher-resolution ECMWF EPS atmospheric forcing at 0.25° resolution, available in real time on the Météo-France database, and with less observed discharge available for the data assimilation subsystem. The new ISBA physics scheme led to a notable improvement in the discharge simulation in western and northeastern France, where no aquifers were simulated by the MODCOU model. This improvement was not impacted by real-time conditions. Likewise, the improvement resulting from the data assimilation system applied over France was not significantly affected by real-time conditions. The propagation of the data assimilation correction to gauging stations located upstream or downstream of the assimilated stations limited the deterioration of forecasted streamflow due to real-time conditions. Finally, the ECMWF EPS high-resolution atmospheric forcing had a significant impact on the streamflow forecasts for small catchments, which increased with lead time

Multicentre study of laparoscopic or open assessment of the peritoneal cancer index (BIG-RENAPE)

International audienceBackgroundThe peritoneal cancer index (PCI) is a comparative prognostic factor for colorectal peritoneal metastasis (CRPM). The ability of laparoscopy to determine the PCI in consideration of cytoreductive surgery remains undetermined, and this study was designed to compare it with laparotomy. MethodsA prospective multicentre study was conducted for patients with no known CRPM, but at risk of peritoneal disease. Surgery began with laparoscopic exploration followed by open exploration to determine the PCI. Concordance between laparoscopic and open assessment was evaluated for the diagnosis of CRPM and for the PCI. ResultsAmong 50 patients evaluated, CRPM recurrence was found in 29 (58 per cent) and 34 (68 per cent) at laparoscopic and open surgery respectively. Laparoscopy was feasible in 88 per cent (44 of 50) and deemed satisfactory by the surgeon in 52 per cent (26 of 50). Among the 25 evaluable patients with satisfactory laparoscopy, there was concordance of 96 per cent (24 of 25 patients) and 38 per cent (10 of 25) for laparoscopic and open assessment of CRPM and the PCI respectively. Where there were discrepancies, it was laparoscopy that underestimated the PCI. ConclusionLaparoscopy may underestimate the extent of CRPM. Underestimated by laparoscop