Utility of Satellite Remote Sensing for Land-Atmosphere Coupling and Drought Metrics

Feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere can play an important role in the water cycle and a number of studies have quantified Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interactions and feedbacks through observations and prediction models. Due to the complex nature of L-A interactions, the observed variables are not always available at the needed temporal and spatial scales. This work derives the Coupling Drought Index (CDI) solely from satellite data and evaluates the input variables and the resultant CDI against in-situ data and reanalysis products. NASA’s AQUA satellite and retrievals of soil moisture and lower tropospheric temperature and humidity properties are used as input. Overall, the AQUA-based CDI and its inputs perform well at a point, spatially, and in time (trends) compared to in-situ and reanalysis products. In addition, this work represents the first time that in-situ observations were utilized for the coupling classification and CDI. The combination of in-situ and satellite remote sensing CDI is unique and provides an observational tool for evaluating models at local and large scales. Overall, results indicate that there is sufficient information in the signal from simultaneous measurements of the land and atmosphere from satellite remote sensing to provide useful information for applications of drought monitoring and coupling metrics

Seasonal Forecasting of Global Hydrologic Extremes: System Development and Evaluation over GEWEX Basins

Seasonal hydrologic extremes in the form of droughts and wet spells have devastating impacts on human and natural systems. Improving understanding and predictive capability of hydrologic extremes, and facilitating adaptations through establishing climate service systems at regional to global scales are among the grand challenges proposed by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and are the core themes of the Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHP) under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). An experimental global seasonal hydrologic forecasting system has been developed that is based on coupled climate forecast models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project and an advanced land surface hydrologic model. The system is evaluated over major GEWEX RHP river basins by comparing with ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). The multimodel seasonal forecast system provides higher detectability for soil moisture droughts, more reliable low and high f low ensemble forecasts, and better “real time” prediction for the 2012 North American extreme drought. The association of the onset of extreme hydrologic events with oceanic and land precursors is also investigated based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. Climate models have a higher probability of missing the onset of hydrologic extremes when there is no oceanic precursor. But oceanic precursor alone is insufficient to guarantee a correct forecast—a land precursor is also critical in avoiding a false alarm for forecasting extremes. This study is targeted at providing the scientific underpinning for the predictability of hydrologic extremes over GEWEX RHP basins and serves as a prototype for seasonal hydrologic forecasts within the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States

There is a long history of debate on the usefulness of climate model–based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts as compared to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). In this study, the authors use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and its previous version, CFSv1, to investigate the value of climate models by conducting a set of 27-yr seasonal hydroclimatic hindcasts over the conterminous United States (CONUS). Through Bayesian downscaling, climate models have higher squared correlation R2 and smaller error than ESP for monthly precipitation, and the forecasts conditional on ENSO have further improvements over southern basins out to 4 months. Verification of streamflow forecasts over 1734 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauges shows that CFSv2 has moderately smaller error than ESP, but all three approaches have limited added skill against climatology beyond 1 month because of overforecasting or underdispersion errors. Using a postprocessor, 60%–70% of probabilistic streamflow forecasts are more skillful than climatology. All three approaches have plausible predictions of soil moisture drought frequency over the central United States out to 6 months, and climate models provide better results over the central and eastern United States. The R2 of drought extent is higher for arid basins and for the forecasts initiated during dry seasons, but significant improvements from CFSv2 occur in different seasons for different basins. The R2 of drought severity accumulated over CONUS is higher during winter, and climate models present added value, especially at long leads. This study indicates that climate models can provide better seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts than ESP through appropriate downscaling procedures, but significant improvements are dependent on the variables, seasons, and regions

The Effects of Climate Change on Seasonal Snowpack and the Hydrology of the Northeastern and Upper Midwest United States

Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (http://www.copyright.com). Questions about permission to use materials for which AMS holds the copyright can also be directed to the AMS Permissions Officer at [email protected]. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (http://www.ametsoc.org/CopyrightInformation).The potential effects of climate change on the snowpack of the northeastern and upper Midwest United States are assessed using statistically downscaled climate projections from an ensemble of 10 climate models and a macroscale hydrological model. Climate simulations for the region indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures and wetter conditions for the snow season (November–April) during the twenty-first century. However, despite projected increases in seasonal precipitation, statistically significant negative trends in snow water equivalent (SWE) are found for the region. Snow cover is likely to migrate northward in the future as a result of warmer-than-present air temperatures, with higher loss rates in northern latitudes and at high elevation. Decreases in future (2041–95) snow cover in early spring will likely affect the timing of maximum spring peak streamflow, with earlier peaks predicted in more than 80% of the 124 basins studied

High-resolution modeling of the spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture: Applications in network design

The spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture remains a persistent challenge in the design of in situ measurement networks, spatial downscaling of coarse estimates (e.g., satellite retrievals), and hydrologic modeling. To address this challenge, we analyze high-resolution (∼9 m) simulated soil moisture fields over the Little River Experimental Watershed (LREW) in Georgia, USA, to assess the role and interaction of the spatial heterogeneity controls of soil moisture. We calibrate and validate the TOPLATS distributed hydrologic model with high to moderate resolution land and meteorological data sets to provide daily soil moisture fields between 2004 and 2008. The results suggest that topography and soils are the main drivers of spatial heterogeneity over the LREW. We use this analysis to introduce a novel network design method that uses land data sets as proxies of the main drivers of local heterogeneity (topography, land cover, and soil properties) to define unique and representative hydrologic similar units (subsurface, surface, and vegetation) for probe placement. The calibration of the hydrologic model and network design method illustrates how the use of hydrologic similar units in hydrologic modeling could minimize computation and guide efforts toward improved macroscale land surface modeling

Land–Atmosphere Interactions: The LoCo Perspective

Land–atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a main driver of Earth’s surface water and energy budgets; as such, they modulate near-surface climate, including clouds and precipitation, and can influence the persistence of extremes such as drought. Despite their importance, the representation of L-A interactions in weather and climate models remains poorly constrained, as they involve a complex set of processes that are difficult to observe in nature. In addition, a complete understanding of L-A processes requires interdisciplinary expertise and approaches that transcend traditional research paradigms and communities. To address these issues, the international Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (GEWEX) Global Land–Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel has supported “L-A coupling” as one of its core themes for well over a decade. Under this initiative, several successful land surface and global climate modeling projects have identified hot spots of L-A coupling and helped quantify the role of land surface states in weather and climate predictability. GLASS formed the Local Land–Atmosphere Coupling (LoCo) project and working group to examine L-A interactions at the process level, focusing on understanding and quantifying these processes in nature and evaluating them in models. LoCo has produced an array of L-A coupling metrics for different applications and scales and has motivated a growing number of young scientists from around the world. This article provides an overview of the LoCo effort, including metric and model applications, along with scientific and programmatic developments and challenges

Land-Atmosphere Interactions: The LoCo Perspective

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a main driver of Earth's surface water and energy budgets; as such, they modulate near-surface climate, including clouds and precipitation, and can influence the persistence of extremes such as drought. Despite their importance, the representation of L-A interactions in weather and climate models remains poorly constrained, as they involve a complex set of processes that are difficult to observe in nature. In addition, a complete understanding of L-A processes requires interdisciplinary expertise and approaches that transcend traditional research paradigms and communities. To address these issues, the international Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (GEWEX) Global Land-Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel has supported 'L-A coupling' as one of its core themes for well over a decade. Under this initiative, several successful land surface and global climate modeling projects have identified hotspots of L-A coupling and helped quantify the role of land surface states in weather and climate predictability. GLASS formed the Local L-A Coupling ('LoCo') project and working group to examine L-A interactions at the process level, focusing on understanding and quantifying these processes in nature and evaluating them in models. LoCo has produced an array of L-A coupling metrics for different applications and scales, and has motivated a growing number of young scientists from around the world. This article provides an overview of the LoCo effort, including metric and model applications, along with scientific and programmatic developments and challenges

Report of the 4th World Climate Research Programme International Conference on Reanalyses

The 4th WCRP International Conference on Reanalyses provided an opportunity for the international community to review and discuss the observational and modelling research, as well as process studies and uncertainties associated with reanalysis of the Earth System and its components. Characterizing the uncertainty and quality of reanalyses is a task that reaches far beyond the international community of producers, and into the interdisciplinary research community, especially those using reanalysis products in their research and applications. Reanalyses have progressed greatly even in the last 5 years, and newer ideas, projects and data are coming forward. While reanalysis has typically been carried out for the individual domains of atmosphere, ocean and land, it is now moving towards coupling using Earth system models. Observations are being reprocessed and they are providing improved quality for use in reanalysis. New applications are being investigated, and the need for climate reanalyses is as strong as ever. At the heart of it all, new investigators are exploring the possibilities for reanalysis, and developing new ideas in research and applications. Given the many centres creating reanalyses products (e.g. ocean, land and cryosphere research centres as well as NWP and atmospheric centers), and the development of new ideas (e.g. families of reanalyses), the total number of reanalyses is increasing greatly, with new and innovative diagnostics and output data. The need for reanalysis data is growing steadily, and likewise, the need for open discussion and comment on the data. The 4th Conference was convened to provide a forum for constructive discussion on the objectives, strengths and weaknesses of reanalyses, indicating potential development paths for the future

Uncertainty Analysis for Land Surface Model Predictions: Application to the Simple Biosphere 3 and Noah Models at Tropical and Semiarid Locations

Uncertainty in model predictions is associated with data, parameters, and model structure. The estimation of these contributions to uncertainty is a critical issue in hydrology. Using a variety of single and multiple criterion methods for sensitivity analysis and inverse modeling, the behaviors of two state-of-the-art land surface models, the Simple Biosphere Model 3 and Noah model, are analyzed. The different algorithms used for sensitivity and inverse modeling are analyzed and compared along with the performance of the land surface models. Generalized sensitivity and variance methods are used for the sensitivity analysis, including the Multi-Objective Generalized Sensitivity Analysis, the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, and the method of Sobol. The methods used for the parameter uncertainty estimation are based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations with Metropolis type algorithms and include A Multi-algorithm Genetically Adaptive Multi-objective algorithm, Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis, the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis, and the Multi-objective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithms. The analysis focuses on the behavior of land surface model predictions for sensible heat, latent heat, and carbon fluxes at the surface. This is done using data from hydrometeorological towers collected at several locations within the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia domain (Amazon tropical forest) and at locations in Arizona (semiarid grass and shrub-land). The influence that the specific location exerts upon the model simulation is also analyzed. In addition, the Santarém kilometer 67 site located in the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia domain is further analyzed by using datasets with different levels of quality control for evaluating the resulting effects on the performance of the individual models. The method of Sobol was shown to give the best estimates of sensitivity for the variance-based algorithms and tended to be conservative in terms of assigning parameter sensitivity, while the multi-objective generalized sensitivity algorithm gave a more liberal number of sensitive parameters. For the optimization, the Multi-algorithm Genetically Adaptive Multi-objective algorithm consistently resulted in the smallest overall error; however all other algorithms gave similar results. Furthermore the Simple Biosphere Model 3 provided better estimates of the latent heat and the Noah model gave better estimates of the sensible heat

Seasonal Predictability of Drought and the Importance of Land-Atmosphere Interactions

Hydrologic extremes in the form of flood and drought have large impacts on society. The ability to predict such extreme events at seasonal timescale allows for preparations that can reduce the risk of these events. However, seasonal prediction skill of global climate models varies seasonally and spatially, which severely limits their practical use. In this thesis a framework for assessing and attributing the seasonal predictability through a probabilistic predictability metric based on model skill across temporal and spatial scales; i.e. for the canonical events was developed and demonstrated. The attribution of predictability specific to land-atmosphere interactions and drought is also developed through a new classification of land-atmosphere interactions that includes the Coupling Drought Index (CDI). The CDI was used to understand the current predictability in NCEPs Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the new classification of coupling is used to develop statistical models to isolate attributes of predictability relevant to land-atmosphere interactions and drought. The results show clear seasonal and spatial patterns of predictability that vary with each forecast variable and provide a better understanding of when and where to have confidence in model predictions. The new classification of coupling indicates strong persistence and the CDI shows good agreement with the temporal and spatial variability of drought and highlights the role of coupling in drought recovery. The CDI in the CFSv2 forecasts indicates climatological bias toward the wet coupling regime that precludes the forecast model from consistently predicting and maintaining drought over the continental US. The attribution of the CFSv2 forecasts skill in the summer indicates that the local persistence of initial conditions provides some predictability over the hindcast period and for specific drought events, however the skill is greatly enhanced by the inclusion of spatial interactions. Furthermore, the statistical model based on correcting coupling bias in CFSv2 provides an unbiased prediction and maintained a similar level of skill and provided better precipitation predictions during the 1988 drought. This argues that the wet bias in the coupling limits the precipitation predictability during drought events. The synthesis and extension of the results is also discussed