Development and validation of a weather-based model for predicting infection of loquat fruit by Fusicladium eriobotryae

A mechanistic, dynamic model was developed to predict infection of loquat fruit by conidia of Fusicladium eriobotryae, the causal agent of loquat scab. The model simulates scab infection periods and their severity through the sub-processes of spore dispersal, infection, and latency (i.e., the state variables); change from one state to the following one depends on environmental conditions and on processes described by mathematical equations. Equations were developed using published data on F. eriobotryae mycelium growth, conidial germination, infection, and conidial dispersion pattern. The model was then validated by comparing model output with three independent data sets. The model accurately predicts the occurrence and severity of infection periods as well as the progress of loquat scab incidence on fruit (with concordance correlation coefficients .0.95). Model output agreed with expert assessment of the disease severity in seven loquatgrowing seasons. Use of the model for scheduling fungicide applications in loquat orchards may help optimise scab management and reduce fungicide applications.This work was funded by Cooperativa Agricola de Callosa d'En Sarria (Alicante, Spain). Three months' stay of E. Gonzalez-Dominguez at the Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore (Piacenza, Italy) was supported by the Programa de Apoyo a la Investigacion y Desarrollo (PAID-00-12) de la Universidad Politecnica de Valencia. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.González Domínguez, E.; Armengol Fortí, J.; Rossi, V. (2014). Development and validation of a weather-based model for predicting infection of loquat fruit by Fusicladium eriobotryae. PLoS ONE. 9(9):1-12. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107547S11299Sánchez-Torres, P., Hinarejos, R., & Tuset, J. J. (2009). 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