foresight for crisis prevention

As part of their efforts to professionalize crisis and conflict prevention, foreign policy-makers are investing more in foresight, early warning or prediction. Different approaches and their products are suited for different purposes, based on distinct strengths and weaknesses. This policy paper provides an overview of the most common methods used in the context of preventing violent conflict and governance breakdown, and offers guidance on what to look out for when thinking about and planning for the future of crisis prevention

Advances in green leases and green leasing: evidence from Sweden, Australia, and the UK

Improving the environmental performance of non-domestic buildings is a complex problem due to the participation of multiple stakeholders. This is particularly challenging in tenanted spaces, where landlord and tenant interactions are regulated through leases that traditionally ignore environmental considerations. ‘Green leasing’ has been conceptualized as a form of ‘middle-out’ inter-organisational environmental governance that operates between organisations, alongside other drivers. Green leases form a valuable framework for tenant–landlord cooperation within properties and across portfolios. This paper offers a comparative international investigation of how leases are evolving to become ‘greener’ in Sweden, Australia, and the UK, drawing on experience from an IEA project on behaviour change and a UK project on energy strategy development. It considers how stakeholder retrofit opportunities and interactions in non-domestic buildings are shaped by the (1) policy context in each country (e.g., the EPBD, NABERS, and MEES) and (2) prevailing leasing practices in each country. Based on this analysis, the paper develops a new market segmentation framework to accentuate the different roles that public sector organisations and private property companies play as both tenants and landlords across countries. We suggest that national government policies assist the public sector in leading on better leasing practices, whereas international certification and benchmarking schemes (e.g., BREEAM & GRESB) may provide more fuel to private sector tenants and landlords. The paper concludes with a discussion of the fit between property portfolios and policies, suggesting that international green lease standards might assist multinational tenants and property owners in upgrading both their premises and their operational practices

Energy- and Area-Efficient DC-DC Converters Fabricated in Low Temperature Crystalline Silicon-on-Glass Technology

The display industry is moving toward the development of system-on-panel (SOP) architectures to make increasingly compact small-format displays and reduce manufacturing cost. Presently, the voltages required by pixel drivers, row scan logic, and timing circuitry, are generated from a single supply voltage using charge pumps fabricated on a high voltage, monolithic integrated circuit mounted off the glass panel. In this work, a new high-efficiency charge pump architecture for fabrication on display glass substrates is presented. The distinguishing feature of this work is the nestedclock timing scheme used to improve power efficiency and reduce output voltage noise without the use of external capacitors. The circuit is intended for implementation on a novel low-temperature crystalline silicon thin-film transistor technology (SiOG) that exhibits superior performance compared to other low-temperature fabrication processes. Based on simulation results, the proposed circuit exhibits both smaller ripple voltage (61% smaller) and improved power efficiency (80.6% vs. 67.8%) when compared to previous work

The evolution of organizational learning in the UN peace operations bureaucracy

"This research paper analyzes the efforts of the past decade to turn the UN peace operations apparatus into a learning organization. It begins by examining a traditional organizational culture of peacekeeping, which is the subject of section 2 of this paper. The traditional culture emerged under the conditions of Cold War peacekeeping operations. It prized maximum political flexibility over professional management practices. After the shock of the UN's catastrophic failures in the face of genocide in Rwanda and Srebrenica, this traditional culture came to be challenged by a new generation of peace operations officials. This group of 'reformers' promoted objectives such as critical reflection and organizational learning while the 'traditionalists' sought to protect the organization from excessive bureaucratic standardization. Section 3 details the structural and political constraints to learning that the reform agenda had to deal with in the beginning. The peace operations bureaucracy is a fragile, extremely decentralized and highly politicized organization – and none of these traits have served to promote its capacity to institutionalize learning. Perhaps most importantly, the fact that all but a few civilian staff can only ever receive short-term contracts and have had, in 2009, less than two years of experience in peace operations underscores the adverse career incentives and limited cause to identify strongly with the organization that individuals have. Together with the cultural rift that had begun to emerge in the late 1990s, these structural and political constraints provided the backdrop for the reform efforts that began in 2000 with the so-called Brahimi report, driven by the new generation of managers who gradually came into influential headquarters jobs from the field. Their initial efforts are outlined in section 4, which draws on examples from several in-depth case studies on specific attempts at learning particular lessons in various subject areas of peace operations. After several years of focusing on the nuts and bolts of managing growth, the learning agenda took shape in 2005 as part of 'Peace Operations 2010,' Under-Secretary-General Jean-Marie Guéhenno's central professionalization initiative. Section 5 depicts the 'Peace Operations 2010' agenda that put learning at the center of reform efforts, again with illustrations from our in-depth case studies on the impact of those efforts (published in full detail elsewhere). Two of the key elements of Peace Operations 2010 were a top-down guidance development effort and a bottom-up knowledge sharing toolbox, the products of which could be used as a source of feedback to inform the formulation and improvement of guidance for as long as it would take to establish an effective evaluation capacity as well. Training and evaluation, however, did not receive the same level of attention and political/financial support from member states. As a result, even the lessons that were taken up by the organization, debated, refined and formally adopted often languished for lack of effective institutionalization in practice." (author's abstract)"Das Forschungspapier untersucht die Bemühungen der letzten 10 Jahre, den UN-Apparat für Friedenseinsätze in eine 'lernende Organisation' zu verwandeln. Als Ausgangspunkt für diesen Prozess analysiert Kapitel 2 die traditionelle Organisationskultur der VN-Friedenseinsätze. Unter den Bedingungen der Friedenssicherung während des Kalten Krieges entstand eine Organisationskultur, die ein Maximum politischer Flexibilität auch auf Kosten der Professionalisierung von Führung und Verwaltung zu sichern suchte. Als eine Folge des katastrophalen Versagens der VN gegenüber dem Völkermord in Ruanda und Srebenica begann eine jüngere Generation von Mitarbeitern, diese traditionelle Kultur herauszufordern. Diese 'Reformer' wollen Ziele wie Selbstkritik und Organisationslernen stärker verankern, während die 'Traditionalisten' versuchten, die Organisation vor übermäßiger bürokratischer Standardisierung zu schützen. Kapitel 3 zeigt die strukturellen und politischen Grenzen auf, der die Reforminitiative im Hinblick auf die institutionelle Lernfähigkeit der VN-Friedenssicherungsbürokratie gegenüber stand. Die VN-Friedenssicherungsbürokratie ist eine fragile, extrem dezentralisierte und höchst politisierte Organisation – und keine dieser Eigenschaften war hilfreich bei der Entwicklung ihrer Lernfähigkeit. Die Tatsache dass zivile Mitarbeiter nur auf Kurzzeitbasis angestellt werden und z.B. 2009 im Schnitt weniger als zwei Jahre Erfahrung in Friedenseinsätzen hatten unterstreicht die problematischen Anreizstrukturen und die mangelnden Grundlagen zur dauerhaften Identifikation des Einzelnen mit der Organisation. Der kulturelle Konflikt seit Ende der 1990er Jahre und diese strukturellen und politischen Hindernisse bildeten den Kontext für die Reforminitiative der 2000er Jahre. Diese begann mit dem sog. Brahimi-Bericht 2000 und wurde von hauptsächlich jüngeren Mitarbeitern vorangetrieben, die aus dem Feld in einflussreiche Positionen im Hauptquartier gelangten. Ihre ersten Schritte werden in Kapitel 4 skizziert, mit Beispielen aus einigen detaillierten Fallstudien über konkrete Lernprozesse. Für die ersten Jahre stand die Bewältigung des enormen Wachstums der Friedenseinsätze im Vordergrund. Erst 2005 begann die Lernagenda als Teil von 'Peace Operations 2010', der Professionalisierungsinitiative von Untergeneralsekretär Jean-Marie Guéhenno, Form anzunehmen. Kapitel 5 beschreibt die Initiative 'Peace Operations 2010', die das Thema Lernen in den Mittelpunkt stellte. Dazu dienen wieder Beispiele aus unseren Fallstudien (die in vollem Umfang an anderem Ort veröffentlicht wurden). Zwei der Kernelemente der Initiative waren die Einführung zentralisierter Doktrinentwicklung und dezentralisierten Wissensaustauschs durch eine Reihe von Instrumenten, deren Ergebnisse auch als Feedbackmechanismus für Doktrinentwicklung bis zur Entwicklung effektiver Evaluierungsprozesse dienen konnten. Ausbildung und Evaluierung gerieten dabei ins Hintertreffen, sowohl intern als auch von seiten der politischen und finanziellen Aufmerksamkeit der Mitgliedsstaaten. Daher wurden auch die Lehren, die die Organisation aufnahm, diskutierte, verbesserte und letztlich annahm, in der Praxis nicht umgesetzt." (Autorenreferat

Learning to build peace? United Nations peacebuilding and organizational learning: developing a research framework: Developing a Research Framework

"While there is an increasing number of articles and studies identifying lessons from the record of UN peacebuilding operations, it is striking how little we know about the UN's very capacity for organizational learning on peacebuilding, and about learning in international organizations in general. This pilot study seeks to lay the foundations for an in-depth investigation of the UN's record on organizational learning. Our study is motivated by both, a research and a policy imperative. On the research front, studying organizational learning within the UN peacebuilding bureaucracy contributes to opening up the 'black box' of international organizations. So far, mainstream work in the discipline of International Relations (IR) has produced surprisingly few studies on the everyday workings of international organizations, let alone their ability to learn. Studying organizational learning calls for an interdisciplinary approach bringing together IR (including peace and conflict studies), public management and the sociology of organizations. This has the potential of advancing conceptual debates within the discipline of IR. The study proceeds in three steps. The first step surveys the relevant literature from different disciplines and concludes that peace research, IR and organization theory do not offer ready-made frameworks for the analysis of organizational learning in international organizations. Building on existing research, we identify key elements of a new framework starting with a definition of the key term, organizational learning: We define organizational learning "as a process of cognitive change through the questioning of the means and/or ends of addressing problems. The process manifests itself in the development and implementation of new rules and routines guiding the organization's actions." In a second step, we survey the evolution of the "infrastructure of learning" in the UN peacebuilding bureaucracy over the past 15 years. We hold that a number of factors (lack of will both within member states and the UN Secretariat as well as the lack of resources and appropriate incentive structures) contributed to the very slow recognition of the UN's learning needs. Major crises (such as the soul-searching after Rwanda and Srebrenica) plus the Brahimi Report in 2000 provided a certain momentum that brought the need to build up the UN's learning capacity higher on the agenda. Still, a lot of work remains to be done. In a third step, we present a list of variables that influence learning that need to be considered in a future in-depth study. This list of factors includes power, organizational culture, leadership, human capital, staff mobility, knowledge management systems, as well as access to external knowledge. Outlining an agenda for future research, we present a draft model of the learning process that includes 1) knowledge acquisition, 2) advocacy/ decision- making, and 3) institutionalization." (excerpt)"Eine zunehmende Anzahl wissenschaftlicher Publikationen hat in den letzten Jahren versucht, Lehren aus der bisherigen Bilanz von UN-Friedensmissionen zu ziehen. Umso überraschender ist es, wie wenig wir über die grundlegende Frage der Lernkapazität der Vereinten Nationen im Hinblick auf Friedensmissionen wissen. Diese Pilotstudie legt die Grundlagen für eine weitergehende Untersuchung institutionellen Lernens in der Peacebuilding-Bürokratie der Vereinten Nationen. Die Studie verfolgt ein doppeltes Ziel. In wissenschaftlicher Hinsicht trägt die Beschäftigung mit Organisationslernen im UN-Sekretariat dazu bei, die 'black box' internationaler Organisationen aufzubrechen und ihr Innenleben als soziale und politische Organisationen zu betrachten - ein Thema, das die Forschung in der Disziplin der Internationalen Beziehungen (IB) bislang weitgehend ignoriert. Organisationslernen als Forschungsgegenstand erfordert einen interdisziplinären Ansatz aus den Fächern IB (inkl. Friedens- und Konfliktforschung), Verwaltungswissenschaft und Organisationssoziologie. Damit ist auch die Aussicht verbunden, konzeptionelle Debatten innerhalb der IB voranzubringen. Die Studie ist in drei Schritte gegliedert. Im ersten Schritt erfassen wir die relevante Literatur aus unterschiedlichen Disziplinen und kommen zu dem Schluss, dass weder Friedensforschung noch IB oder Organisationstheorie einen fertigen Forschungsrahmen für die Analyse von Organisationslernen in internationalen Organisationen bieten. Wir müssen also ein eigenes konzeptionelles Gerüst schaffen, zunächst indem wir den Schlüsselbegriff "Organisationslernen" definieren. Darunter verstehen wir 'einen Prozess kognitiven Wandels durch die Infragestellung der Mittel und/ oder Ziele des Angehens von Problemen. Dieser Prozess äußert sich in der Entwicklung und Umsetzung neuer Regeln und Routinen, die die Handlungen der Organisation leiten.' Im zweiten Schritt stellen wir die Entwicklung der 'Lerninfrastruktur' in der Peacebuilding-Bürokratie der UN über die letzten 15 Jahre dar. Eine Reihe von Faktoren (fehlender politischer Wille in den Mitgliedsstaaten und im Sekretariat sowie mangelnde Ressourcen und ungeeignete Anreizstrukturen) trugen zunächst dazu bei, dass die Notwendigkeit des Lernens nur sehr langsam erkannt wurde. Große Krisen (Ruanda, Srebrenica) sowie der Brahimi-Bericht (2000) brachten die Notwendigkeit zum Ausbau der UN-Lernkapazitäten auf die Tagesordnung. Im dritten Schritt entwickeln wir eine Liste von Faktoren, die das Organisationslernen beeinflussen und in weitergehenden Studien zu berücksichtigen sind. Dazu gehören Macht, Organisationskultur, Führung, Humankapital, Mobilität des Personals, Wissensmanagement sowie Zugang zu externem Wissen. Wir entwerfen zudem ein heuristisches Modell des Lernprozesses in drei Stufen: 1. Wissenserwerb, 2. Aushandlung und 3. Institutionalisierung/ Umsetzung neuer Regeln und Routinen." (Textauszug

Resonating, rejecting, reinterpreting: Mapping the stabilization discourse in the United Nations Security Council, 2000–14

This article charts the evolution of the conceptualisation of stabilization in the UN Security Council (UNSC) during the period 2001–2014. UNSC open meetings provide an important dataset for a critical review of stabilization discourse and an opportunity to chart the positions of permanent Members, rotating Members and the UN Secretariat towards this concept. This article is the first to conduct an analysis of this material to map the evolution of stabilization in this critical chamber of the UN. This dataset of official statements will be complemented by a review of open source reporting on UNSC meetings and national stabilization doctrines of the ‘P3’ – France, the UK and the US. These countries have developed national stabilization doctrines predominantly to deal with cross-governmental approaches to counterinsurgency operations conducted during the 2000s. The article therefore presents a genealogy of the concept of stabilization in the UNSC to help understand implications for its future development in this multilateral setting. This article begins by examining efforts by the P3 to ‘upload’ their conceptualisations of stabilization into UN intervention frameworks. Secondly, the article uses a content analysis of UNSC debates during 2000–2014 to explore the extent to which the conceptualisation of stabilization resonated with other Council members, were rejected in specific contexts or in general, or were re-interpreted by member states to suit alternative security agendas and interests. Therefore, the article not only examines the UNSC debates surrounding existing UN ‘stabilization operations’ (MONUSCO, MINUSTAH, MINUSCA, MINUSMA), which could be regarded as evidence that this ‘western’ concept has resonated with other UNSC members and relevant UN agencies, but also documents the appearance of stabilization in other contexts too. The article opens new avenues of research into concepts of stabilization within the UN, and seeks to provide a thorough accounting of the origins, spread, and potential trajectories for the concept and practice of stabilization in UN contexts

Storytelling as oral history: revealing the changing experience of home heating in England

Oral history provides a means of understanding heating behaviour through encouraging respondents to articulate the past in terms of stories. Unlike other qualitative methods, oral history foregrounds the ontology of personal experiences in a way that is well suited to revealing previously undocumented phenomena in the private world of the home. Three types of change may be distinguished: long term historical change, change associated with the life-cycle stage of the individual and sudden change. A sample of eight in-depth interviews is used to demonstrate the potential of oral history in the study of home heating. The themes to emerge from the interviews include early memories of the home, the financial struggle to heat the home, the influence of childhood experiences in adulthood and the association between warmth and comfort. For the future, domestic comfort, energy conservation and carbon reduction need to be reconciled with one another