Efficient reconstruction of CMSSM parameters from LHC data - A case study

We present an efficient method of reconstructing the parameters of the Constrained MSSM from assumed future LHC data, applied both on their own right and in combination with the cosmological determination of the relic dark matter abundance. Focusing on the ATLAS SU3 benchmark point, we demonstrate that our simple Gaussian approximation can recover the values of its parameters remarkably well. We examine two popular non-informative priors and obtain very similar results, although when we use an informative, naturalness-motivated prior, we find some sizeable differences. We show that a further strong improvement in reconstructing the SU3 parameters can by achieved by applying additional information about the relic abundance at the level of WMAP accuracy, although the expected data from Planck will have only a very limited additional impact. Further external data may be required to break some remaining degeneracies. We argue that the method presented here is applicable to a wide class of low-energy effective supersymmetric models, as it does not require to deal with purely experimental issues, eg, detector performance, and has the additional advantages of computational efficiency. Furthermore, our approach allows one to distinguish the effect of the model's internal structure and of the external data on the final parameters constraints.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures - moderate revision: includes naturalness prior. Matches published versio

The impact of priors and observables on parameter inferences in the Constrained MSSM

We use a newly released version of the SuperBayeS code to analyze the impact of the choice of priors and the influence of various constraints on the statistical conclusions for the preferred values of the parameters of the Constrained MSSM. We assess the effect in a Bayesian framework and compare it with an alternative likelihood-based measure of a profile likelihood. We employ a new scanning algorithm (MultiNest) which increases the computational efficiency by a factor ~200 with respect to previously used techniques. We demonstrate that the currently available data are not yet sufficiently constraining to allow one to determine the preferred values of CMSSM parameters in a way that is completely independent of the choice of priors and statistical measures. While b->s gamma generally favors large m_0, this is in some contrast with the preference for low values of m_0 and m_1/2 that is almost entirely a consequence of a combination of prior effects and a single constraint coming from the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, which remains somewhat controversial. Using an information-theoretical measure, we find that the cosmological dark matter abundance determination provides at least 80% of the total constraining power of all available observables. Despite the remaining uncertainties, prospects for direct detection in the CMSSM remain excellent, with the spin-independent neutralino-proton cross section almost guaranteed above sigma_SI ~ 10^{-10} pb, independently of the choice of priors or statistics. Likewise, gluino and lightest Higgs discovery at the LHC remain highly encouraging. While in this work we have used the CMSSM as particle physics model, our formalism and scanning technique can be readily applied to a wider class of models with several free parameters.Comment: Minor changes, extended discussion of profile likelihood. Matches JHEP accepted version. SuperBayeS code with MultiNest algorithm available at http://www.superbayes.or

Bayesian approach and Naturalness in MSSM analyses for the LHC

The start of LHC has motivated an effort to determine the relative probability of the different regions of the MSSM parameter space, taking into account the present, theoretical and experimental, wisdom about the model. Since the present experimental data are not powerful enough to select a small region of the MSSM parameter space, the choice of a judicious prior probability for the parameters becomes most relevant. Previous studies have proposed theoretical priors that incorporate some (conventional) measure of the fine-tuning, to penalize unnatural possibilities. However, we show that such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself (with no ad hoc assumptions), upon the marginalization of the mu-parameter. Furthermore the resulting effective prior contains precisely the Barbieri-Giudice measure, which is very satisfactory. On the other hand we carry on a rigorous treatment of the Yukawa couplings, showing in particular that the usual practice of taking the Yukawas "as required", approximately corresponds to taking logarithmically flat priors in the Yukawa couplings. Finally, we use an efficient set of variables to scan the MSSM parameter space, trading in particular B by tan beta, giving the effective prior in the new parameters. Beside the numerical results, we give accurate analytic expressions for the effective priors in all cases. Whatever experimental information one may use in the future, it is to be weighted by the Bayesian factors worked out here.Comment: LaTeX, 19 pages, 3 figure

Upper and Lower Limits on Neutralino WIMP Mass and Spin--Independent Scattering Cross Section, and Impact of New (g-2)_{mu} Measurement

We derive the allowed ranges of the spin--independent interaction cross section \sigsip for the elastic scattering of neutralinos on proton for wide ranges of parameters of the general Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model. We investigate the effects of the lower limits on Higgs and superpartner masses from colliders, as well as the impact of constraints from \bsgamma and the new measurement of \gmtwo on the upper and lower limits on \sigsip. We further explore the impact of the neutralino relic density, including coannihilation, and of theoretical assumptions about the largest allowed values of the supersymmetric parameters. For $\mu>0$, requiring the latter to lie below 1\tev leads to \sigsip\gsim 10^{-11}\pb at \mchi\sim100\gev and \sigsip\gsim 10^{-8}\pb at \mchi\sim1\tev. When the supersymmetric parameters are allowed above 1\tev, for 440\gev \lsim \mchi\lsim 1020 \gev we derive a {\em parameter--independent lower limit} of \sigsip \gsim 2\times 10^{-12}\pb. (No similar lower limits can be set for $\mu<0$ nor for 1020\gev\lsim\mchi\lsim2.6\tev.) Requiring \abundchi<0.3 implies a {\em parameter--independent upper limit} \mchi\lsim2.6\tev. The new \epem--based measurement of $(g-2)_{\mu}$ restricts \mchi\lsim 350\gev at $1 \sigma$ CL and \mchi\lsim515\gev at $2 \sigma$ CL, and implies $\mu>0$. The largest allowed values of \sigsip have already become accessible to recent experimental searches.Comment: LaTeX, 17 pages, 9 eps figures. Version to appear in JHE

Challenges of Profile Likelihood Evaluation in Multi-Dimensional SUSY Scans

Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MultiNest, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MultiNest configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MultiNest is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, 1 table; minor changes following referee report. Matches version accepted by JHE

Bound-State Effects on Light-Element Abundances in Gravitino Dark Matter Scenarios

If the gravitino is the lightest supersymmetric particle and the long-lived next-to-lightest sparticle (NSP) is the stau, the charged partner of the tau lepton, it may be metastable and form bound states with several nuclei. These bound states may affect the cosmological abundances of Li6 and Li7 by enhancing nuclear rates that would otherwise be strongly suppressed. We consider the effects of these enhanced rates on the final abundances produced in Big-Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), including injections of both electromagnetic and hadronic energy during and after BBN. We calculate the dominant two- and three-body decays of both neutralino and stau NSPs, and model the electromagnetic and hadronic decay products using the PYTHIA event generator and a cascade equation. Generically, the introduction of bound states drives light element abundances further from their observed values; however, for small regions of parameter space bound state effects can bring lithium abundances in particular in better accord with observations. We show that in regions where the stau is the NSP with a lifetime longer than 10^3-10^4 s, the abundances of Li6 and Li7 are far in excess of those allowed by observations. For shorter lifetimes of order 1000 s, we comment on the possibility in minimal supersymmetric and supergravity models that stau decays could reduce the Li7 abundance from standard BBN values while at the same time enhancing the Li6 abundance.Comment: 22 pages 6 figure

Non-thermal Leptogenesis and a Prediction of Inflaton Mass in a Supersymmetric SO(10) Model

The gravitino problem gives a severe constraint on the thermal leptogenesis scenario. This problem leads us to consider some alternatives to it if we try to keep the gravitino mass around the weak scale $m_{3/2} \sim 100$ GeV. We consider, in this paper, the non-thermal leptogenesis scenario in the framework of a minimal supersymmetric SO(10) model. Even if we start with the same minimal SO(10) model, we have different predictions for low-energy phenomenologies dependent on the types of seesaw mechanism. This is the case for leptogenesis: it is shown that the type-I see-saw model gives a consistent scenario for the non-thermal leptogenesis but not for type-II. The predicted inflaton mass needed to produce the observed baryon asymmetry of the universe is found to be $M_I \sim 5 \times 10^{11}$ GeV for the reheating temperature $T_R = 10^6$ GeV.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures; the version to appear in JCA

Gravitino Dark Matter and Cosmological Constraints

The gravitino is a promising candidate for cold dark matter. We study cosmological constraints on scenarios in which the gravitino is the lightest supersymmetric particle and a charged slepton the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP). We obtain new results for the hadronic nucleosynthesis bounds by computing the 4-body decay of the NLSP slepton into the gravitino, the associated lepton, and a quark-antiquark pair. The bounds from the observed dark matter density are refined by taking into account gravitinos from both late NLSP decays and thermal scattering in the early Universe. We examine the present free-streaming velocity of gravitino dark matter and the limits from observations and simulations of cosmic structures. Assuming that the NLSP sleptons freeze out with a thermal abundance before their decay, we derive new bounds on the slepton and gravitino masses. The implications of the constraints for cosmology and collider phenomenology are discussed and the potential insights from future experiments are outlined. We propose a set of benchmark scenarios with gravitino dark matter and long-lived charged NLSP sleptons and describe prospects for the Large Hadron Collider and the International Linear Collider.Comment: 51 pages, 20 figures, revised version matches published version (results unchanged, JHEP style used, figures replaced with new high-quality figures, typos corrected, references added

Direct Constraints on Minimal Supersymmetry from Fermi-LAT Observations of the Dwarf Galaxy Segue 1

The dwarf galaxy Segue 1 is one of the most promising targets for the indirect detection of dark matter. Here we examine what constraints 9 months of Fermi-LAT gamma-ray observations of Segue 1 place upon the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM), with the lightest neutralino as the dark matter particle. We use nested sampling to explore the CMSSM parameter space, simultaneously fitting other relevant constraints from accelerator bounds, the relic density, electroweak precision observables, the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon and B-physics. We include spectral and spatial fits to the Fermi observations, a full treatment of the instrumental response and its related uncertainty, and detailed background models. We also perform an extrapolation to 5 years of observations, assuming no signal is observed from Segue 1 in that time. Results marginally disfavour models with low neutralino masses and high annihilation cross-sections. Virtually all of these models are however already disfavoured by existing experimental or relic density constraints.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures; added extra scans with extreme halo parameters, expanded introduction and discussion in response to referee's comment

Prospects for dark matter detection with IceCube in the context of the CMSSM

We study in detail the ability of the nominal configuration of the IceCube neutrino telescope (with 80 strings) to probe the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM (CMSSM) favoured by current collider and cosmological data. Adopting conservative assumptions about the galactic halo model and the expected experiment performance, we find that IceCube has a probability between 2% and 12% of achieving a 5sigma detection of dark matter annihilation in the Sun, depending on the choice of priors for the scalar and gaugino masses and on the astrophysical assumptions. We identify the most important annihilation channels in the CMSSM parameter space favoured by current constraints, and we demonstrate that assuming that the signal is dominated by a single annihilation channel canlead to large systematic errors in the inferred WIMP annihilation cross section. We demonstrate that ~ 66% of the CMSSM parameter space violates the equilibrium condition between capture and annihilation in the center of the Sun. By cross-correlating our predictions with direct detection methods, we conclude that if IceCube does detect a neutrino flux from the Sun at high significance while direct detection experiments do not find a signal above a spin-independent cross section sigma_SI^p larger than 5x10^{-9} pb, the CMSSM will be strongly disfavoured, given standard astrophysical assumptions for the WIMP distribution. This result is robust with respect to a change of priors. We argue that the proposed low-energy DeepCore extension of IceCube will be an ideal instrument to focus on relevant CMSSM areas of parameter space.Comment: 32 pages, 12 figures. Updated discussion of comparison with direct detection. References added. Main results unchanged. Matches version accepted by JCA