Estimating Winning Probabilities in Backgammon Races

In modern backgammon, it is advantageous to know the chances each player has of winning, and to be able to compute the chances without the aid of calculators or pencil and paper. A simple model of backgammon is used to approximate those chances, and a readily computable and sufficiently accurate approximation of that is developed. From there, the model is compared to simulated backgammon games, and the previous approximation is modified to fit the real data

Applied Plasma Research

Contains reports on two research projects.National Science Foundation (Grant GK-28282X1)National Science Foundation (Grant GK-33843

Social Identity Moderates the Effects of Team-Referent Attributions on Collective Efficacy but Not Emotions

Team-referent attributions are associated with collective efficacy and emotions (Allen et al. 2009). However, the contextual factors in which these attributions are formulated have been largely ignored. Therefore, the current research was designed to examine whether social identity could moderate the way individuals think about their team-referent attributions. Across two studies (cross-sectional and longitudinal), the moderating role that social identity has on these relationships was examined. In study 1, athletes (N = 227) on sport teams (K = 30) completed questionnaires assessing social identity, attributions for their team’s most recent performance (team-referent attributions), collective efficacy and emotions. Multilevel linear models revealed that social identity moderated the relationships between team-referent attributions and collective efficacy after team defeat. In Study 2, American football team players (N = 43) completed measures of collective efficacy before each game and social identity and attributions after each game. Multilevel linear models revealed that, after a team victory, social identity moderated the relationships between post-game team-referent attributions and subsequent pre-game collective efficacy. Results also indicated that the relationship between controllability and collective efficacy varied at different levels of social identity across the entire season. The results of these studies extend attribution theory by demonstrating that the relationships between team-referent attributions and collective efficacy might be moderated by social identity. Future studies may look to implement interventions aimed at maximizing collective efficacy through attribution retraining strategies while also encouraging the development of social identit

Applied Plasma Research

Contains reports on two research projects.National Science Foundation (Grant GK-37979X)U. S. Army - Research Office - Durham (Contract DAHC04-72-C-0044

Book reviews

Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Measuring and Analyzing Effects of HEMP Simulation on Synthetic Power Grids

There is significant uncertainty about the potential effects of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) detonation on the bulk electric system. This study attempts to account for such uncertainty, in using Monte-Carlo methods to account for speculated range of effect of HEMP contingency. Through task parallelism and asynchronous processing techniques implemented throughout simulation, this study measure the effects of 700 large-scale HEMP simulations on a 7173 bus synthetic power grid. Analysis explores how contingency severity varies, depending on initial contingency parameters. Severity indices were captured throughout simulation to measure and quantify the cascading nature of an HEMP event. Further development of HEMP simulation modeling is explored as well, which could augment forecasts of potential contingency events as well.Comment: 6 pages. 13 figure

Movement of forest-dependent dung beetles through riparian buffers in Bornean oil palm plantations

ABSTRACT Fragmentation of tropical forests is increasing globally, with negative impacts for biodiversity. In Southeast Asia, expansion of oil palm agriculture has caused widespread deforestation, forest degradation, and fragmentation. Persistence of forest-dependent species within these fragmented landscapes is likely to depend on the capacity of individuals to move between forest patches. In oil palm landscapes, riparian buffers along streams and rivers are potential movement corridors, but their use by moving animals is poorly studied. We examined how six dung beetle species traversed riparian buffers connected to a continuous forest reserve area within an oil palm plantation in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. We used a mark-release-recapture study and a new Bayesian Joint Species Movement Modelling (JSMM) approach, extended to a continuous capture process model. Dung beetle species were fairly generalist in their habitat use, but two species showed a statistically-supported preference for riparian buffer forest over oil palm, and one species showed a strong preference for forest reserve over riparian buffer, indicating the importance of forested areas within oil palm landscapes for some species. A land-use change simulation indicated that the loss of riparian buffers in oil palm will result in reduced movement by forest-dependent species. Synthesis and applications: Our results provide evidence for the use of riparian buffers in oil palm plantations for forest-dependent dung beetle species, strengthening the case for their retention, restoration, and re-establishment. Furthermore, our study demonstrates the wider applicability of the Joint Species Movement Modelling (JSMM) framework to assess movement behaviour of species in fragmented landscapes, a vital tool for future forest and landscape management and conservation prioritisation exercises.Peer reviewe

Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future

Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future

Am I on Track? Evaluating Patient-Specific Weight Loss After Bariatric Surgery Using an Outcomes Calculator

PURPOSE: Individual weight loss outcomes after bariatric surgery can vary considerably. As a result, identifying and assisting patients who are not on track to reach their weight loss goals can be challenging. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a bariatric surgery outcomes calculator, which was formulated using a state-wide bariatric-specific data registry, predicted weight loss at 1 year after surgery was calculated on 658 patients who underwent bariatric surgery at 35 different bariatric surgery programs between 2015 and 2017. Patient characteristics, postoperative complications, and weight loss trajectories were compared between patients who met or exceeded their predicted weight loss calculation to those who did not based on observed to expected weight loss ratio (O:E) at 1 year after surgery. RESULTS: Patients who did not meet their predicted weight loss at 1 year (n = 237, 36%) had a mean O:E of 0.71, while patients who met or exceeded their prediction (n = 421, 63%) had a mean O:E = 1.14. At 6 months, there was a significant difference in the percent of the total amount of predicted weight loss between the groups (88% of total predicted weight loss for those that met their 1-year prediction vs 66% for those who did not, p \u3c 0.0001). Age, gender, procedure type, and risk-adjusted complication rates were similar between groups. CONCLUSION: Using a bariatric outcomes calculator can help set appropriate weight-loss expectations after surgery and also identify patients who may benefit from additional therapy prior to reaching their weight loss nadir