Error-free milestones in error prone measurements

A predictor variable or dose that is measured with substantial error may possess an error-free milestone, such that it is known with negligible error whether the value of the variable is to the left or right of the milestone. Such a milestone provides a basis for estimating a linear relationship between the true but unknown value of the error-free predictor and an outcome, because the milestone creates a strong and valid instrumental variable. The inferences are nonparametric and robust, and in the simplest cases, they are exact and distribution free. We also consider multiple milestones for a single predictor and milestones for several predictors whose partial slopes are estimated simultaneously. Examples are drawn from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, in which a BA degree acts as a milestone for sixteen years of education, and the binary indicator of military service acts as a milestone for years of service.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS233 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Analytical study of aerodynamic means of controlling supersonic inlet flow, part I Technical report no. 495B

Means for achieving variable geometry supersonic inlet without using mechanical device

Analytical study of aerodynamic means of controlling supersonic inlet flow, part II TECHNICAL report no. 496E

Aerodynamic means of controlling supersonic inlet flo

Cross-screening in observational studies that test many hypotheses

We discuss observational studies that test many causal hypotheses, either hypotheses about many outcomes or many treatments. To be credible an observational study that tests many causal hypotheses must demonstrate that its conclusions are neither artifacts of multiple testing nor of small biases from nonrandom treatment assignment. In a sense that needs to be defined carefully, hidden within a sensitivity analysis for nonrandom assignment is an enormous correction for multiple testing: in the absence of bias, it is extremely improbable that multiple testing alone would create an association insensitive to moderate biases. We propose a new strategy called "cross-screening", different from but motivated by recent work of Bogomolov and Heller on replicability. Cross-screening splits the data in half at random, uses the first half to plan a study carried out on the second half, then uses the second half to plan a study carried out on the first half, and reports the more favorable conclusions of the two studies correcting using the Bonferroni inequality for having done two studies. If the two studies happen to concur, then they achieve Bogomolov-Heller replicability; however, importantly, replicability is not required for strong control of the family-wise error rate, and either study alone suffices for firm conclusions. In randomized studies with a few hypotheses, cross-split screening is not an attractive method when compared with conventional methods of multiplicity control, but it can become attractive when hundreds or thousands of hypotheses are subjected to sensitivity analyses in an observational study. We illustrate the technique by comparing 46 biomarkers in individuals who consume large quantities of fish versus little or no fish.Comment: 33 pages, 2 figures, 5 table

Isolation in the construction of natural experiments

A natural experiment is a type of observational study in which treatment assignment, though not randomized by the investigator, is plausibly close to random. A process that assigns treatments in a highly nonrandom, inequitable manner may, in rare and brief moments, assign aspects of treatments at random or nearly so. Isolating those moments and aspects may extract a natural experiment from a setting in which treatment assignment is otherwise quite biased, far from random. Isolation is a tool that focuses on those rare, brief instances, extracting a small natural experiment from otherwise useless data. We discuss the theory behind isolation and illustrate its use in a reanalysis of a well-known study of the effects of fertility on workforce participation. Whether a woman becomes pregnant at a certain moment in her life and whether she brings that pregnancy to term may reflect her aspirations for family, education and career, the degree of control she exerts over her fertility, and the quality of her relationship with the father; moreover, these aspirations and relationships are unlikely to be recorded with precision in surveys and censuses, and they may confound studies of workforce participation. However, given that a women is pregnant and will bring the pregnancy to term, whether she will have twins or a single child is, to a large extent, simply luck. Given that a woman is pregnant at a certain moment, the differential comparison of two types of pregnancies on workforce participation, twins or a single child, may be close to randomized, not biased by unmeasured aspirations. In this comparison, we find in our case study that mothers of twins had more children but only slightly reduced workforce participation, approximately 5% less time at work for an additional child.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS770 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Possible Implications of Asymmetric Fermionic Dark Matter for Neutron Stars

We consider the implications of fermionic asymmetric dark matter for a "mixed neutron star" composed of ordinary baryons and dark fermions. We find examples, where for a certain range of dark fermion mass -- when it is less than that of ordinary baryons -- such systems can reach higher masses than the maximal values allowed for ordinary ("pure") neutron stars. This is shown both within a simplified, heuristic Newtonian analytic framework with non-interacting particles and via a general relativistic numerical calculation, under certain assumptions for the dark matter equation of state. Our work applies to various dark fermion models such as mirror matter models and to other models where the dark fermions have self interactions.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figure

Interplay of disorder and geometrical frustration in doped Gadolinium Gallium Garnet

The geometrically-frustrated, triangular antiferromagnet GGG exhibits a rich mix of short-range order and isolated quantum states. We investigate the effects of up to 1% Neodymium substitution for Gallium on the ac magnetic response at temperatures below 1 K in both the linear and nonlinear regimes. Substitutional disorder actually drives the system towards a more perfectly frustrated state, apparently compensating for the effect of imperfect Gadolinium/Gallium stoichiometry, while at the same time more closely demarcating the boundaries of isolated, coherent clusters composed of hundreds of spins. Optical measurements of the local Nd environment substantiate the picture of an increased frustration index with doping.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure