A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON UNDERINVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURAL R&D

During the past 40 years, the returns to agricultural R&D have been on average in the range of 40-60% (Alston, et al 2000, Evenson 2001). Many agricultural economists see this high average as convincing evidence that there is significant underinvestment in public agricultural R&D (Ruttan 1980, Pinstrup-Andersen 2001). This paper sheds new light on the underinvestment hypothesis by introducing a simple model of the selection of R&D projects and confronting it with the rate-of-return evidence accumulated over the years worldwide. The model assumes that the distribution of all possible R&D projects on an expected rate-of-return (ERR) scale declines asymptotically. Under the neoclassical conditions of full information and profit maximization, R&D project selection starts with the project with the highest ERR and continues until the budget is finished or the last project hits the social cutoff rate, whichever comes first. Hence the underinvestment gap can be defined as the difference between the ERR of the marginal R&D project (the actual cutoff rate) and the social cutoff rate. Only three variables need to be known to estimate the underinvestment gap: the social cutoff rate, the actual cutoff rate, and the slope coefficient. Taking less than full information and economic rationality into account, the paper discusses how the latter two can be derived from a sufficiently large and representative sample of ex-post rates of return on agricultural R&D. Important findings of the model are: · Not the mean but the mode of the ex-post rate-of-return distribution is the relevant variable for assessing underinvestment in agricultural R&D. · Under the assumption of full information and profit maximization, developed countries could have invested about 40% more in public agricultural R&D and developing countries about 137% more. In terms of agricultural R&D intensity (i.e., R&D expenditures as a percentage of AgGDP), developed countries could have invested 2.8% rather than 2.0%, and developing countries 1.0% rather than 0.4% in 1981-85. · Low investment in public agricultural R&D in developing countries is caused foremost by a relatively smaller portfolio of profitable R&D projects to choose from. Underinvestment certainly plays a role (the gap is bigger for developing countries), but it explains only a small part of the difference in agricultural R&D intensity between developed and developing countries. · While efforts to reduce the underinvestment gap should continue (e.g., better priority setting and mobilization of political support), more emphasis should be placed on designing policies that help to shift (the portfolio of) R&D projects higher up on the ERR scale, even at the risk of increasing the underinvestment gap. Key words: agricultural R&D, underinvestment, rate of return, research intensitiesagricultural R&D, underinvestment, rate of return, research intensities, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Spitzer IRS observations of k plus a galaxies: a link between polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emission properties and active galactic nucleus feedback?

We have performed Spitzer InfraRed Spectrograph (IRS) low-resolution 5-12 mu m spectroscopy on a sample of galaxies selected to be at three distinct poststarburst evolutionary stages based on their optical spectral indices. The resulting IRS spectra show distinctive polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) emission line structures at 6.2, 7.7, 8.6, and 11.3 mu m and little silicate absorption, indicative of ongoing star formation. However, the PAH interline ratios, in particular the 11.3/6.2 mu m and 7.7/6.2 mu m ratio, show large variations. These variations are found to correlate with both time since the most recent starburst and active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity. We speculate that the evolution observed in these PAH ratios is related to an increase in AGN activity with time since starburst

Spatial grouping resolves ambiguity to drive temporal recalibration.

Cross-modal temporal recalibration describes a shift in the point of subjective simultaneity (PSS) between 2 events following repeated exposure to asynchronous cross-modal inputs-the adaptors. Previous research suggested that audiovisual recalibration is insensitive to the spatial relationship between the adaptors. Here we show that audiovisual recalibration can be driven by cross-modal spatial grouping. Twelve participants adapted to alternating trains of lights and tones. Spatial position was manipulated, with alternating sequences of a light then a tone, or a tone then a light, presented on either side of fixation (e.g., left tone-left light-right tone-right light, etc.). As the events were evenly spaced in time, in the absence of spatial-based grouping it would be unclear if tones were leading or lagging lights. However, any grouping of spatially colocalized cross-modal events would result in an unambiguous sense of temporal order. We found that adapting to these stimuli caused the PSS between subsequent lights and tones to shift toward the temporal relationship implied by spatial-based grouping. These data therefore show that temporal recalibration is facilitated by spatial grouping. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)

Systolic blood pressure reactions to acute stress are associated with future hypertension status in the Dutch Famine Birth Cohort Study

These analyses examined the association between blood pressure reactions to acute psychological stress and subsequent hypertension status in a substantial Dutch cohort. Blood pressure was recorded during a resting baseline and during three acute stress tasks, Stroop colour word, mirror tracing and speech. Five years later, diagnosed hypertension status was determined by questionnaire. Participants were 453 (237 women) members of the Dutch Famine Birth Cohort. In analysis adjusting for a number of potential confounders, systolic blood pressure reactivity was positively related to future hypertension. This was the case irrespective of whether reactivity was calculated as the peak or the average response to the stress tasks. The association was strongest for reactions to the speech and Stroop tasks. Diastolic blood pressure reactivity was not significantly associated with hypertension. The results provide support for the reactivity hypothesis. \ud \u

The Large Peculiar Velocity of the cD Galaxy in Abell 3653

We present a catalogue of galaxies in Abell 3653 from observations made with the 2dF spectrograph at the Anglo-Australian Telescope. Of the 391 objects observed, we find 111 are bone-fide members of Abell 3653. We show that the cluster has a velocity of cz = 32214 +/- 83 km/s (z=0.10738 +/- 0.00027), with a velocity dispersion typical of rich, massive clusters of sigma_{cz} = 880^{+66}_{-54}. We find that the cD galaxy has a peculiar velocity of 683 +/- 96 km/s in the cluster restframe - some 7sigma away from the mean cluster velocity, making it one of the largest and most significant peculiar velocities found for a cD galaxy to date. We investigate the cluster for signs of substructure, but do not find any significant groupings on any length scale. We consider the implications of our findings on cD formation theories.Comment: 16 pages, including 7 figures and a long table. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Revenge?

REMEMBER the first time? We were walking in the snow and your hand was warm through the wool of my mitten. She passed us, smiled, and spoke..

A new approach to multiwavelength associations of astronomical sources

One of the biggest problems faced by current and next-generation astronomical surveys is trying to produce large numbers of accurate cross-identifications across a range of wavelength regimes with varying data quality and positional uncertainty. Until recently, simple spatial 'nearest neighbour' associations have been sufficient for most applications. However as advances in instrumentation allow more sensitive images to be made, the rapid increase in the source density has meant that source confusion across multiple wavelengths is a serious problem. The field of far-IR and sub-mm astronomy has been particularly hampered by such problems. The poor angular resolution of current sub-mm and far-IR instruments is such that in a lot of cases, there are multiple plausible counterparts for each source at other wavelengths. Here we present a new automated method of producing associations between sources at different wavelengths using a combination of spatial and spectral energy distribution information set in a Bayesian framework. Testing of the technique is performed on both simulated catalogues of sources from GaLICS and real data from multiwavelength observations of the Subaru-XMM Deep Field. It is found that a single figure of merit, the Bayes factor, can be effectively used to describe the confidence in the match. Further applications of this technique to future Herschel data sets are discusse

Serial dependence in timing perception

Recent sensory history affects subsequent experience. Behavioral results have demonstrated this effect in two forms: repeated exposure to the same sensory input produces negative aftereffects wherein sensory stimuli like those previously experienced are judged as less like the exposed stimulation, while singular exposures can produce positive aftereffects wherein judgments are more like previously experienced stimulation. For timing perception, there is controversy regarding the influence of recent exposure—both singular and repeated exposure produce apparently negative aftereffects—often referred to as temporal recalibration and rapid temporal recalibration, respectively. While negative aftereffects have been found following repeated exposure for all timing tasks, following a single exposure, they have only been demonstrated using synchrony judgments (SJs). Here, we examine the influence of a single presentation—serial dependence for timing—for standard timing tasks: SJ, temporal order judgments, and magnitude estimation judgments. We found that serial dependence produced apparently negative aftereffects in SJ, but positive aftereffects in temporal order judgment and magnitude estimation judgment. We propose that these findings, and those following repeated exposure, can be reconciled within a framework wherein negative aftereffects occur at sensory layers, consistent with classical depictions of sensory adaptation, and Bayesian-like positive aftereffects operate across different, higher, decision levels. These findings are consistent with the aftereffects known from other perceptual dimensions and provide a general framework for interpreting positive (serial dependence) and negative (sensory adaptation) aftereffects across different tasks

A Comparison of Sixth Grade Student Achievement in Reading and Mathematics at School Transition Year

This study contributed information for consideration as school districts determine grade span configuration as part of school design. The problem addressed was the extent to which student achievement may be impacted by the transition from one school to another from fifth to sixth grade in Florida public schools in order to provide data to school policy makers and school district administrators and add to the body of knowledge on the grade level configuration that contributed the most to student achievement in sixth grade. This was a causal-comparative study using quantitative data to analyze student scores at the school level for reading and mathematics on the 2014 Florida Comprehensive Achievement Test (FCAT) 2.0 assessment to explore the difference in achievement for sixth grade students with no school transition compared to those who had school transitions during middle school. A multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) was used to examine if a difference existed in the dependent variables of sixth-grade reading and mathematics achievement as measured by school mean developmental scale scores and the school percentage of students making learning gains on the FCAT 2.0 between schools with sixth grade as the transition year and without sixth grade as the transition year. The analyses were controlled for the covariates of the school percentages of socio-economic status as determined by free and reduced lunch rate, English Learner status, and exceptional student education status. Findings signified that schools with no school transition between fifth and sixth grade in Florida public schools had higher sixth-grade mean scores in reading and mathematics as measured by school mean developmental scale scores and in reading as measured by the percentage of school learning gains. This study offers insight into what grade configuration is more likely to positively impact student achievement during the middle grades and supports students remaining in an elementary setting with fewer transitions during the middle grades to most benefit reading and mathematics achievement. Findings are useful to school boards, superintendents, and school district administrators interested in educational policy development and research on transition especially when restructuring school grade configurations and building new school sites