Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

The complete genome sequence of Chromobacterium violaceum reveals remarkable and exploitable bacterial adaptability

Chromobacterium violaceum is one of millions of species of free-living microorganisms that populate the soil and water in the extant areas of tropical biodiversity around the world. Its complete genome sequence reveals (i) extensive alternative pathways for energy generation, (ii) ≈500 ORFs for transport-related proteins, (iii) complex and extensive systems for stress adaptation and motility, and (iv) wide-spread utilization of quorum sensing for control of inducible systems, all of which underpin the versatility and adaptability of the organism. The genome also contains extensive but incomplete arrays of ORFs coding for proteins associated with mammalian pathogenicity, possibly involved in the occasional but often fatal cases of human C. violaceum infection. There is, in addition, a series of previously unknown but important enzymes and secondary metabolites including paraquat-inducible proteins, drug and heavy-metal-resistance proteins, multiple chitinases, and proteins for the detoxification of xenobiotics that may have biotechnological applications

Interleukin-15 augments oxidative metabolism and fungicidal activity of human monocytes against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis

Interleukin (IL)-15 is a pleiotropic cytokine that regulates the proliferation and survival of many cell types. IL-15 is produced by monocytes and macrophages against infectious agents and plays a pivotal role in innate and adaptive immune responses. This study analyzed the effect of IL-15 on fungicidal activity, oxidative metabolism and cytokine production by human monocytes challenged in vitro with Paracoccidioides brasiliensis (Pb18), the agent of paracoccidioidomycosis. Peripheral blood monocytes were pre-incubated with IL-15 and then challenged with Pb18. Fungicidal activity was assessed by viable fungi recovery from cultures after plating on brain-heart infusion-agar. Superoxide anion (O2-), hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), IL-6, IL-15 and IL-10 production by monocytes were also determined. IL-15 enhanced fungicidal activity against Pb18 in a dose-dependent pattern. This effect was abrogated by addition of anti-IL-15 monoclonal antibody. A significant stimulatory effect of IL-15 on O2- and H2O2 release suggests that fungicidal activity was dependent on the activation of oxidative metabolism. Pre-treatment of monocytes with IL-15 induced significantly higher levels of TNF-α, IL-10 and IL-15 production by cells challenged with the fungus. These results suggest a modulatory effect of IL-15 on pro and anti-inflammatory cytokine production, oxidative metabolism and fungicidal activity of monocytes during Pb18 infection.Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP

Interleukin-15 augments oxidative metabolism and fungicidal activity of human monocytes against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis

Interleukin (IL)-15 is a pleiotropic cytokine that regulates the proliferation and survival of many cell types. IL-15 is produced by monocytes and macrophages against infectious agents and plays a pivotal role in innate and adaptive immune responses. This study analyzed the effect of IL-15 on fungicidal activity, oxidative metabolism and cytokine production by human monocytes challenged in vitro with Paracoccidioides brasiliensis (Pb18), the agent of paracoccidioidomycosis. Peripheral blood monocytes were pre-incubated with IL-15 and then challenged with Pb18. Fungicidal activity was assessed by viable fungi recovery from cultures after plating on brain-heart infusion-agar. Superoxide anion (O2-), hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), IL-6, IL-15 and IL-10 production by monocytes were also determined. IL-15 enhanced fungicidal activity against Pb18 in a dose-dependent pattern. This effect was abrogated by addition of anti-IL-15 monoclonal antibody. A significant stimulatory effect of IL-15 on O2- and H2O2 release suggests that fungicidal activity was dependent on the activation of oxidative metabolism. Pre-treatment of monocytes with IL-15 induced significantly higher levels of TNF-α, IL-10 and IL-15 production by cells challenged with the fungus. These results suggest a modulatory effect of IL-15 on pro and anti-inflammatory cytokine production, oxidative metabolism and fungicidal activity of monocytes during Pb18 infectio

Effect of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer and primary health care programs on the new case detection rate of leprosy.

BACKGROUND: Social determinants can affect the transmission of leprosy and its progression to disease. Not much is known about the effectiveness of welfare and primary health care policies on the reduction of leprosy occurrence. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of the Brazilian cash transfer (Bolsa Família Program-BFP) and primary health care (Family Health Program-FHP) programs on new case detection rate of leprosy. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted the study with a mixed ecological design, a combination of an ecological multiple-group and time-trend design in the period 2004-2011 with the Brazilian municipalities as unit of analysis. The main independent variables were the BFP and FHP coverage at the municipal level and the outcome was new case detection rate of leprosy. Leprosy new cases, BFP and FHP coverage, population and other relevant socio-demographic covariates were obtained from national databases. We used fixed-effects negative binomial models for panel data adjusted for relevant socio-demographic covariates. A total of 1,358 municipalities were included in the analysis. In the studied period, while the municipal coverage of BFP and FHP increased, the new case detection rate of leprosy decreased. Leprosy new case detection rate was significantly reduced in municipalities with consolidated BFP coverage (Risk Ratio 0.79; 95% CI  =0.74-0.83) and significantly increased in municipalities with FHP coverage in the medium (72-95%) (Risk Ratio 1.05; 95% CI  =1.02-1.09) and higher coverage tertiles (>95%) (Risk Ratio 1.12; 95% CI  =1.08-1.17). CONCLUSIONS: At the same time the Family Health Program had been effective in increasing the new case detection rate of leprosy in Brazil, the Bolsa Família Program was associated with a reduction of the new case detection rate of leprosy that we propose reflects a reduction in leprosy incidence