On the utility of individual tendency output: Revealing interactions between parameterized processes during a marine cold air outbreak

Forecasts of marine cold air outbreaks critically rely on the interplay of multiple parameterization schemes to represent subgrid-scale processes, including shallow convection, turbulence, and microphysics. Even though such an interplay has been recognized to contribute to forecast uncertainty, a quantification of this interplay is still missing. Here, we investigate the tendencies of temperature and specific humidity contributed by individual parameterization schemes in the operational weather prediction model AROME-Arctic. From a case study of an extensive marine cold air outbreak over the Nordic seas, we find that the type of planetary boundary layer assigned by the model algorithm modulates the contribution of individual schemes and affects the interactions between different schemes. In addition, we demonstrate the sensitivity of these interactions to an increase or decrease in the strength of the parameterized shallow convection. The individual tendencies from several parameterizations can thereby compensate each other, sometimes resulting in a small residual. In some instances this residual remains nearly unchanged between the sensitivity experiments, even though some individual tendencies differ by up to an order of magnitude. Using the individual tendency output, we can characterize the subgrid-scale as well as grid-scale responses of the model and trace them back to their underlying causes. We thereby highlight the utility of individual tendency output for understanding process-related differences between model runs with varying physical configurations and for the continued development of numerical weather prediction models.publishedVersio

The HARMONIE–AROME Model Configuration in the ALADIN–HIRLAM NWP System

The aim of this article is to describe the reference configuration of the convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model HARMONIE-AROME, which is used for operational short-range weather forecasts in Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Sweden. It is developed, maintained, and validated as part of the shared ALADIN–HIRLAM system by a collaboration of 26 countries in Europe and northern Africa on short-range mesoscale NWP. HARMONIE–AROME is based on the model AROME developed within the ALADIN consortium. Along with the joint modeling framework, AROME was implemented and utilized in both northern and southern European conditions by the above listed countries, and this activity has led to extensive updates to themodel’s physical parameterizations. In this paper the authors present the differences inmodel dynamics and physical parameterizations compared with AROME, as well as important configuration choices of the reference, such as lateral boundary conditions, model levels, horizontal resolution, model time step, as well as topography, physiography, and aerosol databases used. Separate documentation will be provided for the atmospheric and surface data-assimilation algorithms and observation types used, as well as a separate description of the ensemble prediction system based on HARMONIE–AROME, which is called HarmonEPS

Role of radiography, MRI and FDG-PET/CT in diagnosing, staging and therapeutical evaluation of patients with multiple myeloma

Multiple myeloma is a malignant B-cell neoplasm that involves the skeleton in approximately 80% of the patients. With an average age of 60 years and a 5-years survival of nearly 45% Brenner et al. (Blood 111:2516–2520, 35) the onset is to be classified as occurring still early in life while the disease can be very aggressive and debilitating. In the last decades, several new imaging techniques were introduced. The aim of this review is to compare the different techniques such as radiographic survey, multidetector computed tomography (MDCT), whole-body magnetic resonance imaging (WB-MRI), fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography- (FDG-PET) with or without computed tomography (CT), and 99mTc-methoxyisobutylisonitrile (99mTc-MIBI) scintigraphy. We conclude that both FDG-PET in combination with low-dose CT and whole-body MRI are more sensitive than skeleton X-ray in screening and diagnosing multiple myeloma. WB-MRI allows assessment of bone marrow involvement but cannot detect bone destruction, which might result in overstaging. Moreover, WB-MRI is less suitable in assessing response to therapy than FDG-PET. The combination of PET with low-dose CT can replace the golden standard, conventional skeletal survey. In the clinical practise, this will result in upstaging, due to the higher sensitivity

In Vivo Methods to Study Uptake of Nanoparticles into the Brain

Several in vivo techniques have been developed to study and measure the uptake of CNS compounds into the brain. With these techniques, various parameters can be determined after drug administration, including the blood-to-brain influx constant (Kin), the permeability-surface area (PS) product, and the brain uptake index (BUI). These techniques have been mostly used for drugs that are expected to enter the brain via transmembrane diffusion or by carrier-mediated transcytosis. Drugs that have limitations in entering the brain via such pathways have been encapsulated in nanoparticles (based on lipids or synthetic polymers) to enhance brain uptake. Nanoparticles are different from CNS compounds in size, composition and uptake mechanisms. This has led to different methods and approaches to study brain uptake in vivo. Here we discuss the techniques generally used to measure nanoparticle uptake in addition to the techniques used for CNS compounds. Techniques include visualization methods, behavioral tests, and quantitative methods

On the utility of individual tendency output: Revealing interactions between parameterized processes during a marine cold air outbreak

Forecasts of marine cold air outbreaks critically rely on the interplay of multiple parameterization schemes to represent subgrid-scale processes, including shallow convection, turbulence, and microphysics. Even though such an interplay has been recognized to contribute to forecast uncertainty, a quantification of this interplay is still missing. Here, we investigate the tendencies of temperature and specific humidity contributed by individual parameterization schemes in the operational weather prediction model AROME-Arctic. From a case study of an extensive marine cold air outbreak over the Nordic seas, we find that the type of planetary boundary layer assigned by the model algorithm modulates the contribution of individual schemes and affects the interactions between different schemes. In addition, we demonstrate the sensitivity of these interactions to an increase or decrease in the strength of the parameterized shallow convection. The individual tendencies from several parameterizations can thereby compensate each other, sometimes resulting in a small residual. In some instances this residual remains nearly unchanged between the sensitivity experiments, even though some individual tendencies differ by up to an order of magnitude. Using the individual tendency output, we can characterize the subgrid-scale as well as grid-scale responses of the model and trace them back to their underlying causes. We thereby highlight the utility of individual tendency output for understanding process-related differences between model runs with varying physical configurations and for the continued development of numerical weather prediction models

Entrainment and detrainment in cumulus convection: An overview.

Entrainment and detrainment processes has been recognised for a long time as key processes for cumulus convection and has witnessed recently renaissance mainly due to the capability of Large Eddy Simulations (LES) to diagnose these processes in more detail. This paper has a twofold purpose. Firstly it provides a historical overview of the past research on this mixing processes. Secondly, it highlights more recent important developments. These include both fundamental process studies using LES aiming to improve our understanding of the mixing process but also more practical studies targeted toward a improved parameterised representation of entrainment and detrainment in large scale models. A highlight of the fundamental studies resolves a long-lasting controversy by showing that lateral entrainment is the dominant mixing mechanism in comparison to the cloud top entrainment in shallow cumulus convection. The more practical studies provide a wide variety of new parameterisations with sometimes conflicting approaches with respect of how the effect of the free tropospheric humidity on the lateral mixing needs to be taken into account. An important new and recent insight that will be highlighted is that, despite the focus in the literature on entrainment, it appears that it is rather the detrainment process that determines the vertical structure of the convection in general and the mass flux especially. Finally, in order to speed up progress and stimulate convergence in future parameterisations, stronger and more systematic use of LES is advocated

Impact of the Microphysics in HARMONIE-AROME on Fog

This study concerns the impact of microphysics on the HARMONIE-AROME NWP model. In particular, the representation of cloud droplets in the single-moment bulk microphysics scheme is examined in relation to fog forecasting. We focus on the shape parameters of the cloud droplet size distribution and recent changes to the representation of the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Two configurations of CDNC are considered: a profile that varies with height and a constant one. These aspects are examined together since few studies have considered their combined impact during fog situations. We present a set of six experiments performed for two non-idealised threedimensional case studies over the Iberian Peninsula and the North Sea. One case displays both low clouds and fog, and the other shows a persistent fog field above sea. The experiments highlight the importance of the considered parameters that affect droplet sedimentation, which plays a key role in modelled fog. We show that none of the considered configurations can simultaneously represent all aspects of both cases. Hence, continued efforts are needed to introduce relationships between the governing parameters and the relevant atmospheric conditions

Model development in practice: A comprehensive update to the boundary layer schemes in HARMONIE-AROME cycle 40

The parameterised description of subgrid-scale processes in the clear and cloudy boundary layer has a strong impact on the performance skill in any numerical weather prediction (NWP) or climate model and is still a prime source of uncertainty. Yet, improvement of this parameterised description is hard because operational models are highly optimised and contain numerous compensating errors. Therefore, improvement of a single parameterised aspect of the boundary layer often results in an overall deterioration of the model as a whole. In this paper, we will describe a comprehensive integral revision of three parameterisation schemes in the High Resolution Local Area Modelling - Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational (HIRLAM-ALADIN) Research on Mesoscale Operational NWP In Europe - Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (HARMONIE-AROME) model that together parameterise the boundary layer processes: the cloud scheme, the turbulence scheme, and the shallow cumulus convection scheme. One of the major motivations for this revision is the poor representation of low clouds in the current model cycle. The newly revised parametric descriptions provide an improved prediction not only of low clouds but also of precipitation. Both improvements can be related to a stronger accumulation of moisture under the atmospheric inversion. The three improved parameterisation schemes are included in a recent update of the HARMONIE-AROME configuration, but its description and the insights in the underlying physical processes are of more general interest as the schemes are based on commonly applied frameworks. Moreover, this work offers an interesting look behind the scenes of how parameterisation development requires an integral approach and a delicate balance between physical realism and pragmatism. Atmospheric Remote Sensin