Una visión unificada del contagio en mercados financieros : un enfoque causal en el dominio de la frecuencia

Este trabajo propone una nueva metodología para identificar la existencia de contagio durante la crisis asiática de 1997 y la crisis mexicana de 1994, usando la prueba de causalidad de Granger en el dominio de la frecuencia propuesta por Breitung y Candelon (2006). Se encuentra evidencia de contagio e interdependencia intrarregional e interregional durante dichas crisis. La metodología permite analizar los resultados teniendo en cuenta las diversas definiciones de contagio de forma unificada y a su vez obtener resultados robustos ante los problemas de medición del contagio enunciados en la literatura.This work proposes a new methodology to identify the existence of contagion during the Asian crisis of 1997 and the Mexican crisis of 1994, using the Granger causality test in the frequency domain proposed by Breitung and Candelon (2006). There is evidence of intra-regional and interregional contagion and interdependence during such crises. The methodology allows to analyze the results taking into account the different definitions of contagion in a unified form and in turn to obtain robust results in view of the contagion measurement problems stated in the literatureMagíster en EconomíaMaestrí

Effectiveness of an intervention for Aedes aegypti control scaled-up under an inter-sectoral approach in a Colombian city hyper-endemic for dengue virus.

Aedes aegypti transmitted arboviral diseases are of significant importance in Colombia, particularly since the 2014/2015 introduction of chikungunya and Zika in the Americas and the increasing spread of dengue. In response, the Colombian government initiated the scaling-up of a community-based intervention under inter and multi-sector partnerships in two out of four sectors in Girardot, one of the most hyper-endemic dengue cities in the country. Using a quasi-experimental research design a scaled-up community-led Aedes control intervention was assessed for its capacity to reduce dengue from January 2010 to August 2017 in Girardot, Colombia. Reported dengue cases, and associated factors were analysed from available data sets from the Colombian disease surveillance systems. We estimated the reduction in dengue cases before and after the intervention using, Propensity Score Matching and an Autoregressive Moving Average model for robustness. In addition, the differences in dengue incidence among scaling-up phases (pre-implementation vs sustainability) and between treatment groups (intervention and control areas) were modelled. Evidence was found in favour of the intervention, although to maximise impact the scaling-up of the intervention should continue until it covers the remaining sectors. It is expected that a greater impact of the intervention can be documented in the next outbreak of dengue in Girardot

Essays in econometrics : modified instrumental variables, estimates of unobserved variables and time series techniques using instrumental variables. Macroeconometric applications.

El primer artículo propone un método iterativo para corregir la inconsistencia del estimador de variables instrumentales cuando el instrumento es endógeno. Se concluye que la exogeneidad del instrumento respecto al regresor endógeno debe superar su endogeneidad para eliminar la inconsistencia. Se prueba el método en dos casos empíricos. En el segundo artículo, se analiza la respuesta del crecimiento económico en Colombia ante un shock en la economía subterránea, usando el mercado informal de trabajo y el de la cocaína. Se observa una relación contracíclica entre la economía subterránea y la formal en el mercado laboral informal, y acíclica en el mercado de la cocaína. Además, se concluye que un shock en la economía subterránea genera inflación en ambos mercados. Se sugiere que la economía subterránea permite a los agentes suavizar su consumo al asignar su trabajo entre los dos sectores, lo que puede acentuar el ciclo económico. El tercer artículo investiga cómo la estructura de edad de un país afecta la transmisión de los choques en el precio del petróleo sobre la macroeconomía. Se encuentra que los países con mayor proporción de personas en edades intermedias muestran respuestas significativas ante un shock petrolero, atribuidas a la capacidad del país para generar nuevos negocios. Se emplea un enfoque econométrico basado en trabajos anteriores sobre los choques estructurales del precio del petróleo y la estructura etaria.The first article proposes an iterative method to correct the inconsistency of the instrumental variables estimator when the instrument is endogenous. It is concluded that the exogeneity of the instrument with respect to the endogenous regressor must overcome its endogeneity to eliminate the inconsistency. The method is tested in two empirical cases. In the second article, the response of economic growth in Colombia to a shock in the underground economy is analyzed, using the informal labor market and the cocaine market. A countercyclical relationship is observed between the underground and formal economies in the informal labor market, and an acyclical relationship in the cocaine market. Furthermore, it is concluded that a shock in the underground economy generates inflation in both markets. It is suggested that the underground economy allows agents to smooth their consumption by allocating their work between the two sectors, which can accentuate the economic cycle. The third article investigates how a country's age structure affects the transmission of oil price shocks on the macroeconomy. It is found that countries with a higher proportion of people in middle ages show significant responses to an oil shock, attributed to the country's ability to generate new businesses. An econometric approach is used based on previous work on structural oil price shocks and age structure.Doctor en EconomíaDoctoradohttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3447-4453https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=es&user=QqQjcNAAAAAJhttp://scienti.colciencias.gov.co:8081/cvlac/visualizador/generarCurriculoCv.do?cod_rh =000012208

Effectiveness of an intervention for Aedes aegypti control scaled-up under an inter-sectoral approach in a Colombian city hyper-endemic for dengue virus

Aedes aegypti transmitted arboviral diseases are of significant importance in Colombia, particularly since the 2014/2015 introduction of chikungunya and Zika in the Americas and the increasing spread of dengue. In response, the Colombian government initiated the scaling-up of a community-based intervention under inter and multi-sector partnerships in two out of four sectors in Girardot, one of the most hyper-endemic dengue cities in the country. Using a quasi-experimental research design a scaled-up community-led Aedes control intervention was assessed for its capacity to reduce dengue from January 2010 to August 2017 in Girardot, Colombia. Reported dengue cases, and associated factors were analysed from available data sets from the Colombian disease surveillance systems. We estimated the reduction in dengue cases before and after the intervention using, Propensity Score Matching and an Autoregressive Moving Average model for robustness. In addition, the differences in dengue incidence among scaling-up phases (pre-implementation vs sustainability) and between treatment groups (intervention and control areas) were modelled. Evidence was found in favour of the intervention, although to maximise impact the scaling-up of the intervention should continue until it covers the remaining sectors. It is expected that a greater impact of the intervention can be documented in the next outbreak of dengue in Girardot