Migraine, headache, and mortality in women: a cohort study

Background: Migraine carries a high global burden, disproportionately affects women, and has been implicated as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Migraine with aura has been consistently associated with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. However, published evidence on relationships between migraine or non-migraine headache and all-cause mortality is inconclusive. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the effect of non-migraine headache and migraine as well as migraine subtypes on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in women. Methods: In total, 27,844 Women’s Health Study participants, aged 45 years or older at baseline, were followed up for a median of 22.7 years. We included participants who provided information on migraine (past history, migraine without aura, or migraine with aura) or headache status and a blood sample at study start. An endpoints committee of physicians evaluated reports of incident deaths and used medical records to confirm deaths due to cardiovascular, cancer, or female-specific cancer causes. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the effect of migraine or headache status on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Results: Compared to individuals without any headache, no differences in all-cause mortality for individuals suffering from non-migraine headache or any migraine were observed after adjustment for confounding (HR = 1.01, 95%CI, 0.93–1.10 and HR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.89–1.04). No differences were observed for the migraine subtypes and all-cause death. Women having the migraine with aura subtype had a higher mortality due to cardiovascular disease (adjusted HR = 1.64, 95%CI: 1.06–2.54). As an explanation for the lack of overall association with all-cause mortality, we observed slightly protective signals for any cancer and female-specific cancers in this group. Conclusions: In this large prospective study of women, we found no association between non-migraine headache or migraine and all-cause mortality. Women suffering from migraine with aura had an increased risk of cardiovascular death. Future studies should investigate the reasons for the increased risk of cardiovascular mortality and evaluate whether changes in migraine patterns across the life course have differential effects on mortality

Impact of COPD and anemia on motor and cognitive performance in the general older population: results from the English longitudinal study of ageing

Background: Cognitive and motor-performance decline with age and the process is accelerated by decline in general health. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effects of COPD and HB levels on cognitive and motor performance in the general older population and assess potential interaction. Methods: The English Longitudinal Study of Aging is a population-based cohort study including measurements of lung-function and HB levels together with cognitive and motor performance testing. Data were collected from 5709 participants including three measurement time over eight years. COPD was defined using lung-function-parameters and clinical symptoms. HB was assessed continuously and low HB was defined using clinical anemia cutoffs. Linear mixed-effects regression models were used to quantify the associations of COPD and HB with outcome measures, both individually and in combination. Results: Participants with both low HB and COPD demonstrated worse motor performance compared to individuals with only one exposure, resulting in up to 1 s (95%CI, 0.04–1.8) longer time needed to complete the five times sit to stand task than what would be expected based on purely additive effects. Additionally in individuals with COPD, the time to complete the motor-performance task per unit decrease in continuous HB levels was longer than in participants without COPD after full adjustment for confounding (up to 1.38 s/unit HB level, 95% CI: 0.65–2.11). Conclusion: In persons with COPD low HB levels may contribute to low motor-performance in a supra additive fashion. Further studies should re-evaluate whether earlier treatment of lower HB in these individuals might be beneficial

Directed acyclic graphs and causal thinking in clinical risk prediction modeling

Background: In epidemiology, causal inference and prediction modeling methodologies have been historically distinct. Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are used to model a priori causal assumptions and inform variable selection strategies for causal questions. Although tools originally designed for prediction are finding applications in causal inference, the counterpart has remained largely unexplored. The aim of this theoretical and simulation-based study is to assess the potential benefit of using DAGs in clinical risk prediction modeling. Methods: We explore how incorporating knowledge about the underlying causal structure can provide insights about the transportability of diagnostic clinical risk prediction models to different settings. We further probe whether causal knowledge can be used to improve predictor selection in clinical risk prediction models. Results: A single-predictor model in the causal direction is likely to have better transportability than one in the anticausal direction in some scenarios. We empirically show that the Markov Blanket, the set of variables including the parents, children, and parents of the children of the outcome node in a DAG, is the optimal set of predictors for that outcome. Conclusions: Our findings provide a theoretical basis for the intuition that a diagnostic clinical risk prediction model including causes as predictors is likely to be more transportable. Furthermore, using DAGs to identify Markov Blanket variables may be a useful, efficient strategy to select predictors in clinical risk prediction models if strong knowledge of the underlying causal structure exists or can be learned

Correction: Performance of risk prediction scores for cardiovascular mortality in older persons: External validation of the SCORE OP and appraisal

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231097.