[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231097.

Ebert, Natalie

Huscher, Dörte

Kurth, Tobias

Logroscino, Giancarlo

Mielke, Nina

Piccininni, Marco

Rohmann, Jessica Lee

Schäffner, Elke

PLoS ONE

English

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231097.]

Marco Piccininni

Jessica L Rohmann

Dörte Huscher

Nina Mielke

Natalie Ebert

Giancarlo Logroscino

Elke Schäffner

Tobias Kurth

Directory of Open Access Journals

Correction: Performance of risk prediction scores for cardiovascular mortality in older persons: External validation of the SCORE OP and appraisal.

Institutional Repository of the Freie Universität Berlin

CORRECTIONCorrection: Performance of risk predictionscores for cardiovascular mortality in olderpersons: External validation of the SCORE OPand appraisalMarco Piccininni, Jessica L. Rohmann, Do¨rte Huscher, Nina Mielke, Natalie Ebert,Giancarlo Logroscino, Elke Scha¨ffner, Tobias KurthThere are errors in the layout of Table 2. Please see the correct Table 2 here.PLOS ONEPLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233051 May 6, 2020 1 / 2a1111111111a1111111111a1111111111a1111111111a1111111111OPEN ACCESSCitation: Piccininni M, Rohmann JL, Huscher D,Mielke N, Ebert N, Logroscino G, et al. (2020)Correction: Performance of risk prediction scoresfor cardiovascular mortality in older persons:External validation of the SCORE OP and appraisal.PLoS ONE 15(5): e0233051. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233051Published: May 6, 2020Copyright: © 2020 Piccininni et al. This is an openaccess article distributed under the terms of theCreative Commons Attribution License, whichpermits unrestricted use, distribution, andreproduction in any medium, provided the originalauthor and source are credited.Reference1. Piccininni M, Rohmann JL, Huscher D, Mielke N, Ebert N, Logroscino G, et al. (2020) Performance ofrisk prediction scores for cardiovascular mortality in older persons: External validation of the SCOREOP and appraisal. PLoS ONE 15(4): e0231097. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0231097 PMID:32271825Table 2. Risk scores: measures of validity.Risk scorea Predicted number of fatalcardiovascular eventsActual number of fatal cardiovasculareventsbPredicted/ ActualratioNam-D’Agostino chi-square(p-value)C-indexc (95%CI)SCORE OPhigh-riskregions0.79(0.75 to 0.83)SCORE OP-H5y302 142 2.13 139.16(p<0.001)SCORE OP-H 677 399 1.70 327.9(p<0.001)SCORE OPlow-riskregions0.80(0.75 to 0.83)SCORE OP-L5y215 142 1.51 39.68(p<0.001)SCORE OP-L 519 397 1.31 76.29(p<0.001)SCORE-H 372 382 0.97 29.68(p = 0.001)0.72(0.67 to 0.76)SCORE-L 258 384 0.67 117.63(p<0.001)0.72(0.67 to 0.77)aSCORE OP[22] and SCORE[13] systems have been previously described elsewhere. H and L indicate high- and low- cardiovascular risk regions. 5y indicates 5-year riskequations. All other scores listed are 10-year versions.bWeibull regression model projections beyond the observed follow-up are reported for 10-year risk scores, leading to small differences in the number of actual events.5-year risk scores use observed Berlin Initiative Study data only using the Kaplan-Meier estimator.cRisk score discrimination capability was assessed using the entire observed follow-up data.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233051.t001PLOS ONEPLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233051 May 6, 2020 2 / 2

Correction: Performance of risk prediction scores for cardiovascular mortality in older persons: External validation of the SCORE OP and appraisal

BACKGROUND:European guidelines recommend the use of the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) to assess 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular events in people aged 40 to 65. The SCORE Older Persons (SCORE OP, 5-year and 10-year versions) was recently developed for people aged 65 or older. We assessed the performance of these risk scores in predicting fatal cardiovascular events in older persons in Berlin. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Data from the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS), a prospective, population-based study of older persons recruited from a German public health insurance company database were used. 1,657 participants aged 70 or older without reported previous myocardial infarction were included. We assessed calibration by comparing predicted risks to observed (for 5-year versions, 5y) or projected (for 10-year versions) probabilities. During follow-up (median: 4.8 years), 118 cardiovascular deaths occurred. The calibration assessment of the SCORE OP-H 5y and SCORE OP-L 5y equations revealed 2.1- and 1.5-fold overestimation. Comparing 10-year versions, the SCORE OP showed better discrimination ability compared to the SCORE (C-indices of around 0.80 compared to 0.72) and the SCORE for high-risk regions showed the best calibration (chi-square = 29.68). The SCORE OP overestimated the true risk; 519 and 677 events were predicted using the low-risk and high-risk region SCORE OP equations compared to 397 to 399 events projected based on BIS follow-up data (predicted/actual ratios of 1.3 and 1.7). CONCLUSIONS:Given the low transportability of the SCORE OP observed in our population, we caution against its use in routine clinical practice until further information is available to avoid possible overtreatment among older persons in Berlin

Performance of risk prediction scores for cardiovascular mortality in older persons: External validation of the SCORE OP and appraisal.

Background: European guidelines recommend the use of the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) to assess 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular events in people aged 40 to 65. The SCORE Older Persons (SCORE OP, 5-year and 10-year versions) was recently developed for people aged 65 or older. We assessed the performance of these risk scores in predicting fatal cardiovascular events in older persons in Berlin.

Methods and findings: Data from the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS), a prospective, population-based study of older persons recruited from a German public health insurance company database were used. 1,657 participants aged 70 or older without reported previous myocardial infarction were included. We assessed calibration by comparing predicted risks to observed (for 5-year versions, 5y) or projected (for 10-year versions) probabilities. During follow-up (median: 4.8 years), 118 cardiovascular deaths occurred. The calibration assessment of the SCORE OP-H 5y and SCORE OP-L 5y equations revealed 2.1- and 1.5-fold overestimation. Comparing 10-year versions, the SCORE OP showed better discrimination ability compared to the SCORE (C-indices of around 0.80 compared to 0.72) and the SCORE for high-risk regions showed the best calibration (chi-square = 29.68). The SCORE OP overestimated the true risk; 519 and 677 events were predicted using the low-risk and high-risk region SCORE OP equations compared to 397 to 399 events projected based on BIS follow-up data (predicted/actual ratios of 1.3 and 1.7).

Conclusions: Given the low transportability of the SCORE OP observed in our population, we caution against its use in routine clinical practice until further information is available to avoid possible overtreatment among older persons in Berlin

Performance of risk prediction scores for cardiovascular mortality in older persons: External validation of the SCORE OP and appraisal

https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/bitstream/fub188/27867/1/2020_Piccininni_etal.pdf

Correction: Performance of risk prediction scores for cardiovascular mortality in older persons: External validation of the SCORE OP and appraisal

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Directory of Open Access Journals

Institutional Repository of the Freie Universität Berlin

Directory of Open Access Journals

Institutional Repository of the Freie Universität Berlin