Stochastic dynamical systems and processes with discontinuous sample paths

Chapter 1 we use a Poisson stochastic measure to establish a method of localizing, and a change of chart formula for, a class of stochastic differential equations with discontinuous sample paths. This is based on Gikhman and Skorohod [4]. In Chapter 2 we use essentially the method of Elworthy [2], to construct a unique, maximal solution to a stochastic differential equation defined on a manifold M. Chapter 3 establishes some properties of solutions of the equation. In particular if M is compact, then the solutions have infinite explosion time. We evaluate the infinitesimal generator of the process. By defining stochastic development of a-stable processes on the tangent space, we produce a process on the manifold which, as is shown in Section 6, is not a-stable on M

Adaptive Management of Winter Elk Feedgrounds in Western Wyoming as a Long-Term Strategy for Reducing Brucellosis in Elk While Maintaining Separation from Cattle: A Work in Progress

Brucellosis is of large economic and management concern in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) where wildlife remain the last reservoir of the disease in the United States. Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) management of brucellosis has focused on separation of elk (Cervus elaphus) and cattle (Bos taurus) through operation of 22 winter feedgrounds, which originated to prevent elk starvation and elk damage. Although feedgrounds perpetuate the spread of brucellosis among elk, they are largely maintained to prevent disease spillover to cattle. Despite efforts, recent brucellosis occurrences in Wyoming cattle during 2004-2008 were linked to feedground elk. Therefore, numerous research projects conducted during 2006-2008 were aimed at developing feedground management strategies that lead to long-term brucellosis reductions in elk. Major research results lead the WGFD to development of the Target Feedground Project, which manipulates feeding management to reduce brucellosis in elk. This project was first implemented in winter 2007-08 and is conducted exclusively at target feedgrounds, where perceived elk-cattle commingling risk is low and there is a high potential for elk to free range in late winter/early spring. The first objective is to reduce elk densities while on feedgrounds by using low-density feeding. The second objective is to reduce duration of high elk concentration by manipulating end-feeding season date through systematic reductions in hay rations in late winter and early spring, with the goal of ending an average of 3-4 weeks earlier than long-term means. Advantages of this project, if successful, are sustainable reductions in elk brucellosis and decreased risk to cattle, lower elk feeding costs, and continued operation of feedgrounds to minimize elk-cattle commingling, elk damage, and sustain elk numbers that meet public expectation. Disadvantages are that the project is not suitable for all feedgrounds and elk on target feedgrounds remain susceptible to new diseases that may arise

Are spherulitic lacustrine carbonates an expression of large-scale mineral carbonation? : A case study from the East Kirkton Limestone, Scotland

BP Exploration Co. is thanked for funding, and particularly the Carbonate Team for supporting this research and for fruitful discussions. West Lothian Council and Scottish Natural Heritage are thanked for allowing access and permission for sampling the site. The Core Store Team at BGS Keyworth is particularly acknowledged for their assistance. Mark Anderson, Tony Sinclair (University of Hull), and Bouk Lacet (VU University Amsterdam) are thanked for technical support. Anne Kelly (SUERC) for carrying out the Strontium Isotope analyses. Mark Tyrer is thanked for his advice on PHREEQC modelling.Peer reviewedPostprin

A depositional model for spherulitic carbonates associated with alkaline, volcanic lakes

The South Atlantic Aptian ‘Pre-salt’ reservoirs are formed by a combination of spherulitic carbonates and Mg-rich clays accumulated in volcanic alkaline lake settings with exotic chemistries. So far, outcrop analogues characterised by metre-thick successions deposited in lacustrine scenarios are elusive so disentangling the genesis of spherulitic carbonates represents a major scientific challenge with business impact. In particular the controls on spatial distribution and the environment of spherulitic facies formation remain poorly constrained, little studied, and hotly debated. To shed light on this conundrum, a spherulitic carbonate-rich, alkaline volcanic lacustrine succession has been analysed at outcrop scale: the Carboniferous East Kirkton Limestone (Scotland). Despite clays being very scarce and limited to layers of amorphous Mg-Si minerals, a diverse array of spherulitic calcitic components were formed, including coated grains, crusts, and build-ups. This setting enables the mechanisms of spherulitic calcite development and the patterns of sediment accumulation to be explored in a geobiological and hydrochemical scenario similar to the ‘Pre-Salt’ subsurface occurrences but divorced from clay influence. The integration of logs, borehole data, outcrop photomosaics and petrographic observations collectively allowed the reconstruction of a depositional model for the East Kirkton lacustrine succession. In this model, calcite spherule nucleation took place at the sediment-water interface in the littoral zone, driven by the co-occurrence of 1) high alkalinity, 2) Ca-Mg rich hydrochemistry, and 3) microbial-derived colloidal exopolymeric substances. These environmental conditions permitted the coeval development of spherulitic cementstone build-ups and spherulitic grainstone-packstone within the wave-agitated zone, and the accumulation of floatstones and laminites of spherulitic grains in deeper lake regions by means of downslope reworking. This model is consistent with the previously documented microbial bloom occurrences and highlights the need to better understand the complex ‘microbe-solution’ interactions before any reliable facies model is envisaged

A cluster randomised controlled trial of a comprehensive accreditation intervention to reduce alcohol consumption at community sports clubs: study protocol

Introduction: Excessive alcohol consumption isresponsible for considerable harm from chronicdisease and injury. Within most developed countries,members of sporting clubs consume alcohol at levels above that of communities generally. Despite the potential benefits of interventions to address alcohol consumption in sporting clubs, there have been no randomised controlled trials to test the effectiveness of these interventions. The aim of this study is to examine the effectiveness of a comprehensive accreditation intervention with community football clubs (Rugby League, Rugby Union, soccer/association football and Australian Rules football) in reducing excessive alcohol consumption by club members.Methods and analysis: The study will be conducted in New South Wales, Australia, and employ a cluster randomised controlled trial design. Half of the football clubs recruited to the trial will be randomised to receive an intervention implemented over two and a half winter sporting seasons. The intervention is based on social ecology theory and is comprehensive in nature, containing multiple elements designed to decrease the supply of alcohol to intoxicated members, cease the provision of cheap and free alcohol, increase the availability and costattractiveness of non-alcoholic and low-alcoholic beverages, remove high alcohol drinks and cease drinking games. The intervention utilises a three-tiered accreditation framework designed to motivate intervention implementation. Football clubs in the control group will receive printed materials on topics unrelated to alcohol. Outcome data will be collected pre- and postintervention through cross-sectional telephone surveys of club members. The primary outcome measure will be alcohol consumption by club members at the club, assessed using a graduated frequency index and a seven day diary.Ethics and dissemination: The study was approved by The University of Newcastle Human Research Ethics Committee (reference: H-2008-0432). Study findings will be disseminated widely through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.<br /

Geo-Statistical Methods for Detecting Elk Parturition Sites from GPS Collar Data

There is an increasing awareness of the importance of juvenile survival in ungulate population dynamics, and the accurate prediction of parturition habitat may allow for more effective management. Detecting birth sites in a statistically rigorous way, however, often requires intensive field efforts that may not be possible for all studies. We developed a hierarchical two-stage clustering analysis for identifying elk parturition locations, which can be conducted retrospectively using only GPS location data. We validated our approach using a dataset of 59 adult female elk ( Cervus elaphus) fitted with both a Global Positioning System (GPS) collar (30-minute sampling interval) and vaginal implant transmitter (VIT) For the top parameter set, approximately 80% of estimable parturition sites were within 1 km of their respective VIT location. Roughly 10 % of our predicted birthing locations were over 2 km away from the VIT location, but many of these events could be filtered from the analyses due to their clustering attributes. Designed to minimize Type II errors this filtering also removes a subset of birthing sites that close to VIT locations, and magnitude of this effect varied across parameter sets. Sub-sampling of the GPS dataset from 30 min to 1, 2, 3, and 6 hour intervals resulted in modest reductions in the efficacy of our approach. With the use of GPS collars in ungulate studies on the rise, our approach provides managers with additional information on birth site locations at no additional cost over and above a typical GPS study

Population Hemoglobin Mean and Anemia Prevalence in Papua New Guinea: New Metrics for Defining Malaria Endemicity?

The hypothesis is that hemoglobin-based metrics are useful tools for estimating malaria endemicity and for monitoring malaria control strategies. The aim of this study is to compare population hemoglobin mean and anemia prevalence to established indicators of malaria endemicity, including parasite rates, rates of enlarged spleens in children, and records of (presumptive) malaria diagnosis among populations living with different levels of malaria transmission. Convenience sample, multisite cross-sectional household surveys conducted in Papua New Guinea. Correlations (r(2)) between population Hb mean and anemia prevalence and altitude, parasite rate, and spleen rate were investigated in children ages 2 to 10 years, and in the general population; 21,664 individuals from 156 different communities were surveyed. Altitude ranged from 5 to 2120 meters. In young children, correlations between altitude and parasite rate, population Hb mean, anemia prevalence, and spleen rate were high (r(2): -0.77, 0.73, -0.81, and -0.68; p&lt;0.001). In the general population, correlations between altitude and population Hb mean and anemia prevalence were 0.83 and 0.85, respectively. Among young children, parasite rate correlated highly with anemia prevalence, population Hb mean, and spleen rate (r(2): 0.81, -0.81, and 0.86; p&lt;0.001). Population Hb mean (corrected for direct altitude effects) increased with altitude, from 10.5 g/dl at &lt;500 m to 12.8 g/dl at &gt;1500 m (p&lt;0.001). In PNG, where Plasmodium vivax accounts for an important part of all malaria infections, population hemoglobin mean and anemia prevalence correlate well with altitude, parasite, and spleen rates. Hb measurement is simple and affordable, and may be a useful new tool, alone or in association with other metrics, for estimating malaria endemicity and monitoring effectiveness of malaria control programs. Further prospective studies in areas with different malaria epidemiology and different factors contributing to the burden of anemia are warranted to investigate the usefulness of Hb metrics in monitoring malaria transmission intensity

Band in a bubble: Putting out fires

Putting Out Fires (song) Collaborative Composition - Music and Lyrics. BAND IN A BUBBLE is a real time observational workshop, where a group of musicians from around New Zealand gather together for the first time at Wintec in Hamilton to compose, record and perform a new collection of songs. Inspired by a project that involved Australian band REGURGITATOR in Melbourne in 2004, this project is the brainchild of Wintec Music Department Lecturer, Kent Macpherson. The initial idea from was conceptually inspired by biospheres, and a desire to explore the juxtaposition between the insular artistic recording process, and the extroverted performer. To look through this process at how that might impact the creative mindset. BAND IN A BUBBLE at SPARK festival involves a number of performers from around New Zealand including: Kent Macpherson, David Sidwell, John Egenes, Reuben Bradley, Jeremy Mayall, Megan Berry, Nick Braae and Brooke Baker, as the core performers. This collaboration will be the first for this ensemble, so this experience will also include a realtime exploration of how to approach a creative collaboration from the beginning. The WIntec wharenui has been carefully selected as the venue for this project for a number of reasons. Most notably, the building has many windows which provide a certain ‘transparency’ to the actual process. The wharenui is also very central to the Wintec campus, both in a physical and spiritual sense. Most involved are also educators, as well as musicians, so the inclusion of this workshop as part of the SPARK festival will ideally facilitate an educational experience for the students and wider community. The intention is to build an environment that is a creatively fulfilling one for the people directly involved