Bootstrap prediction intervals in State Space models

Prediction intervals in State Space models can be obtained by assuming Gaussian innovations and using the prediction equations of the Kalman filter, where the true parameters are substituted by consistent estimates. This approach has two limitations. First, it does not incorporate the uncertainty due to parameter estimation. Second, the Gaussianity assumption of future innovations may be inaccurate. To overcome these drawbacks, Wall and Stoffer (2002) propose to obtain prediction intervals by using a bootstrap procedure that requires the backward representation of the model. Obtaining this representation increases the complexity of the procedure and limits its implementation to models for which it exists. The bootstrap procedure proposed by Wall and Stoffer (2002) is further complicated by fact that the intervals are obtained for the prediction errors instead of for the observations. In this paper, we propose a bootstrap procedure for constructing prediction intervals in State Space models that does not need the backward representation of the model and is based on obtaining the intervals directly for the observations. Therefore, its application is much simpler, without loosing the good behavior of bootstrap prediction intervals. We study its finite sample properties and compare them with those of the standard and the Wall and Stoffer (2002) procedures for the Local Level Model. Finally, we illustrate the results by implementing the new procedure to obtain prediction intervals for future values of a real time series.Backward representation, Kalman filter, Local Level Model, Unobserved Components

Propuesta de trabajo de síntesis para alumnos de tercero de la ESO: creación de una página web turística de Terrassa.

Este trabajo final de máster es titulado “Propuesta de trabajo de síntesis para alumnos de tercero de la ESO: Creación de una página web turística de Terrassa.” El trabajo trata básicamente en estudiar qué es el trabajo de síntesis, tratando su definición, sus objetivos específicos y su evaluación. El trabajo de síntesis es un trabajo de carácter interdisciplinar, por lo tanto, intenta trabajar cada una de las asignaturas que conforman un curso de la ESO. Ésto conlleva a tener en cuenta tanto los objetivos generales y las competencias básicas de la ESO como el currículum de un curso en concreto. En este caso se tratan los objetivos, contenidos y criterios de evaluación de las materias del tercer curso de la ESO. El trabajo de síntesis que se propone es de carácter tecnológico ya que el objetivo final es la creación de una página web. En este trabajo se muestra el material didáctico necesario para poder poner en marcha el trabajo de síntesis. El material consta de una programación didáctica, de la formación de los grupos de trabajo, de la planificación y descripción de las actividades que el alumnado debe desarrollar, del sistema de evaluación y de las conclusiones. Además se ofrece la guía del alumno, una herramienta que les será útil para poder desarrollar el trabajo. Finalmente, lo que se quiere conseguir es que los alumnos, mediante el trabajo en equipo y la capacidad de autonomía, busquen y recopilen información relevante y necesaria para poder confeccionar un lugar de interés sobre la ciudad de Terrassa

Collaborative art making : finding the presence of peace within adolescents of the Amani community

This case study immersed the researcher in the lives of ten members of the Amani community located in Meru, Kenya for the duration of a month, during which she examined how dialogue and collaborative art making foster understanding of peace. In addition to examining literature on community-based art education, collaboration, dialogue, and developing perspectives of peace, the researcher conducted a collaborative art workshop centered on the theme of peace with nine adolescents. Through dialogue with the adolescents and the founder of the Amani community, Dr. Karambu, several themes relating to peace were generated, along with a “toolbox” with instruments art educators may utilize when facilitating community engagement.Art Educatio

Barriers to Higher Education Among CalWORKs Recipients

Individuals and families in poverty face an abundance of barriers to self-sufficiency with the lack of higher education being the most prominent of them. The California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids (CalWORKs) program has been the primary intervention to aid poverty following the welfare reform of 1996. Through their work first approach the CalWORKs program intends to set recipients on the path to self-sufficiency. Although education is the biggest weapon against poverty, CalWORKs recipients face a plethora of barriers while pursuing a college degree, as CalWORKs regulations are rigid and unsupportive toward higher education. Due to the minimal research focusing particularly on CALWORKs recipients, there was a need to further examine the barriers these recipients face while pursuing higher education. This qualitative study explored the barriers hindering CalWORKs recipient’s progression toward college completion. This study administered 11 face to face interviews with active and former CalWORKs recipients in Riverside County, California. The data gathered were transcribed and analyzed to identify recurrent themes regarding barriers toward college completion among CalWORKs recipients. The major themes identified by the study were: lack of knowledge, conflicting roles, lack of self-confidence, and unrealistic requirements by the CalWORKs program. The implications of these findings for CalWORKs stakeholders were discussed

Differences in the Same OMI/MLS Aura Tropospheric Ozone Data Set Published Before and After January 2013

On the website "NASA Goddard Homepage for Tropospheric Ozone", global data of tropospheric ozone obtained from observations of OMI and MLS Aura satellite instruments, are reported. In mid-2013, the data was covering the period between October 2004 and January 2013. Subsequently, in early 2014, the time series was extended until December 2013. At present time, the published series has been extended to December 2014. Analysing this new series, we observed that the data already published to January 2013 had been replaced; not only the missing months of 2013 were added but all the values published since 2004 were recalculated. We present the detected differences in the comparison between common data to both time series (the original, before January 2013, and the new one, currently published on the website). These differences are important considering that they represent the result of the same satellite observation and should be considered when comparing results before/after January 2013, especially when adopting a certain confidence level in the spectral analysis of these data to intraseasonal scale. A warn of caution is suggested in the use of these observations and intercomparison with other values of these and other instruments, because of possible recurrent problems of instrumental calibration.Fil: Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Agosta Scarel, Eduardo Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Rodriguez, Rubén L.. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Quaranta, Nancy Esther. Universidad Nacional de La Plata; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentin

Cost of intensive routine control and incremental cost of insecticide-treated curtain deployment in a setting with low Aedes aegypti infestation

Introduction: Information regarding the cost of implementing insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) is scarce. Therefore, we evaluated the ITC implementation cost, in addition to the costs of intensive conventional routine activities of the Aedes control program in the city of Guantanamo, Cuba. Methods: A cost-analysis study was conducted from the perspective of the Aedes control program, nested in an ITC effectiveness trial, during 2009-2010. Data for this study were obtained from bookkeeping records and activity registers of the Provincial Aedes Control Programme Unit and the account records of the ITC trial. Results: The annual cost of the routine Aedes control program activities was US$16.80 per household (p.h). Among 3,015 households, 6,714 ITCs were distributed. The total average cost per ITC distributed was US$3.42, and 74.3% of this cost was attributed to the cost of purchasing the ITCs. The annualized costs p.h. of ITC implementation was US$3.80. The additional annualized cost for deploying ITCs represented 19% and 48.4% of the total cost of the routine Aedes control and adult-stage Aedes control programs, respectively. The trial did not lead to further reductions in the already relatively low Aedes infestation levels. Conclusions: At current curtain prices, ITC deployment can hardly be considered an efficient option in Guantanamo and other comparable environments

Coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease: A condensed review of epidemiological evidence and mechanisms

Scientific Journals International : “This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry on 66.21 (2018): 5257-5263, DOI: http://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jafc.7b04506"Coffee is one of the most widely consumed beverages, and some studies have suggested it may be related to cardiovascular disease (CVD), the leading cause of poor health in the world. This review evaluates the evidence on the effect of habitual coffee consumption on CVD incidence and mortality. The review is based mostly on observational studies and meta-analyses of the literature. In healthy people, in comparison to not consuming coffee, habitual consumption of 3–5 cups of coffee per day is associated with a 15% reduction in the risk of CVD, and higher consumption has not been linked to elevated CVD risk. Moreover, in comparison to no coffee intake, usual consumption of 1–5 cups/day is associated with a lower risk of death. In people who have already suffered a CVD event, habitual consumption does not increase the risk of a recurrent CVD or death. However, hypertensive patients with uncontrolled blood pressure should avoid consuming large doses of caffeine. In persons with well-controlled blood pressure, coffee consumption is probably safe, but this hypothesis should be confirmed by further investigation

Violencia de Género: Detección y Pautas de Actuación

En este curso se contempla la violencia de género desde una perspectiva humana, social, asistencial y jurídica. Se matizarán las principales diferencias y características entre violencia de género y violencia doméstica así como las posibles respuestas a los casos que se nos planteen Así se destacarán las pautas de actuación ante una víctima de violencia de género y un maltratador

A Cough-Based Algorithm for Automatic Diagnosis of Pertussis

Pertussis is a contagious respiratory disease which mainly affects young children and can be fatal if left untreated. The World Health Organization estimates 16 million pertussis cases annually worldwide resulting in over 200,000 deaths. It is prevalent mainly in developing countries where it is difficult to diagnose due to the lack of healthcare facilities and medical professionals. Hence, a low-cost, quick and easily accessible solution is needed to provide pertussis diagnosis in such areas to contain an outbreak. In this paper we present an algorithm for automated diagnosis of pertussis using audio signals by analyzing cough and whoop sounds. The algorithm consists of three main blocks to perform automatic cough detection, cough classification and whooping sound detection. Each of these extract relevant features from the audio signal and subsequently classify them using a logistic regression model. The output from these blocks is collated to provide a pertussis likelihood diagnosis. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated using audio recordings from 38 patients. The algorithm is able to diagnose all pertussis successfully from all audio recordings without any false diagnosis. It can also automatically detect individual cough sounds with 92% accuracy and PPV of 97%. The low complexity of the proposed algorithm coupled with its high accuracy demonstrates that it can be readily deployed using smartphones and can be extremely useful for quick identification or early screening of pertussis and for infection outbreaks control