Improvements of short-term solar radiation forecasting techniques based on satellite and sky-camera imagery

Las fuentes de energía dependientes de la meteorología generan variabilidad en la producción eléctrica, que dificulta su integración en la red. La predicción del recurso ayuda a anticipar acciones de contingencia para gestionar esta variabilidad. En esta tesis se estudian mejoras en los métodos de predicción a corto y muy corto plazo del recurso solar, particularmente, en aquellos basados en imágenes de cámara de nubes y satélite. Esta tesis incluye: 1) la descripción detallada e implementación de métodos del estado del arte de predicción de radiación solar a corto plazo, 2) la utilización de la cámara de nubes como clasificador automático del tipo de nube, 3) un análisis de los patrones de tiempo asociados a diversos modos de variabilidad solar, 4) un análisis comparativo de varios métodos de predicción de radiación solar a corto plazo, y 5) la propuesta y valoración de modelos combinados elaborados con técnicas de machine learning.The energy resources dependant of weather generate energy production varibility, which difficult its integration into the electricity grid. The prediction of resources aims at anticipating contingency actions in order to manage this variability. In this thesis, improvements in nowcasting and short-term solar forecasting methods are studied, particularly, those based on sky-camera and satellite imagery. This thesis includes: 1) the detailed description and development of state-of-the-art solar radiation forecasting methods, 2) the use of sky-camera as automatic cloud type classificator, 3) an analysis of weather patterns associated to several modes of solar variability, 4) a comparative analysis of several short-term solar radiation forecasting methods, and 5) the proposal and assessment of blending models computed through machine learning techniques.Tesis Univ. Jaén. Departamento de Físic

A scanning electron microscopy study of Anisakis physeteris molecularly identified: from third stage larvae from fish to fourth stage larvae obtained in vitro

The development of the fourth larval stage (L4) of Anisakis physeteris was studied using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), comparing it with third larval stage (L3) recently obtained from the host fish, blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou), from the western Mediterranean Sea (east coast of Spain, zone FAO 37.1.1). After molting to L4, samples of the parasite were examined at different times in order to observe their development. Following collection of the L4, a small portion was taken from the middle of the larva for molecular identification, confirming in all cases that it was A. physeteris. The anterior and posterior sections of the larvae were prepared for morphological study by SEM. The development of a row of denticles on each of the three prominent lips, almost reaching the buccal commisures, was observed in the L4. Pores of unknown function were found in the upper external part of each lip. Clearly developed cephalic papillae, amphids, and deirids were also observed in L4, while, although present in L3, these were beneath the cuticle. Phasmids were detected in L4 but not in L3. The L4 tail finished in a conical lobe with a blunt point, absent in L3. In the oldest L4, some preanal papillae were observed beneath the cuticle in males, while, in females, the vulva could be seen by light microscopy, apparently still covered by the cuticle.This work has been funded by the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (Spanish State Research Agency) and European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), grant number CGL2013-47725-P

Early development and life cycle of Contracaecum multipapillatum s.l. from a brown pelican Pelecanus occidentalis in the Gulf of California, Mexico

The initial developmental stages of Contracaecum multipapillatum (von Drasche, 1882) Lucker, 1941 sensu lato were studied using eggs obtained from the uterus of female nematodes (genetically identified) found in a brown pelican Pelecanus occidentalis from Bahía de La Paz (Gulf of California, Mexico). Optical microscopy revealed a smooth or slightly rough surface to the eggs. Egg dimensions were approximately 53 x 43 μm, although when the larvae developed inside their size increased to 66 x 55 μm. Hatching and survival of the larvae was greater at 15 ºC than 24 ºC and increased salinity resulted in a slight increase in hatching but seemed to reduce survival at 24 ºC, but not at 15 ºC. The recently hatched larvae measured 261 x 16 μm within their sheath. When placed in culture medium the larvae grew within their sheath and a small percentage (~2%) exsheathed completely (314 x 19 μm). The larvae continued to grow and develop once they had exsheathed, attaining mean dimensions of 333 x 22 μm. Although they did not moult during culture, optical microscopy revealed a morphology typical of third-stage larvae. Finally, the genetic identity found between the larvae of the parasite from mullet and adult females from the brown pelican suggests a life cycle of C. multipapillatum in which the mullet are involved as intermediate/paratenic hosts and the brown pelicans as final hosts in the geographical area of Bahía de La Paz.This work was funded by the Spanish grant CGL2013-47725-P from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and Mexican grant SIP20141443 from IPN

Evolutionary-based prediction interval estimation by blending solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological weather types

Recent research has shown that the integration or blending of different forecasting models is able to improve the predictions of solar radiation. However, most works perform model blending to improve point forecasts, but the integration of forecasting models to improve probabilistic forecasting has not received much attention. In this work the estimation of prediction intervals for the integration of four Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) forecasting models (Smart Persistence, WRF-solar, CIADcast, and Satellite) is addressed. Several short-term forecasting horizons, up to one hour ahead, have been analyzed. Within this context, one of the aims of the article is to study whether knowledge about the synoptic weather conditions, which are related to the stability of weather, might help to reduce the uncertainty represented by prediction intervals. In order to deal with this issue, information about which weather type is present at the time of prediction, has been used by the blending model. Four weather types have been considered. A multi-objective variant of the Lower Upper Bound Estimation approach has been used in this work for prediction interval estimation and compared with two baseline methods: Quantile Regression (QR) and Gradient Boosting (GBR). An exhaustive experimental validation has been carried out, using data registered at Seville in the Southern Iberian Peninsula. Results show that, in general, using weather type information reduces uncertainty of prediction intervals, according to all performance metrics used. More specifically, and with respect to one of the metrics (the ratio between interval coverage and width), for high-coverage (0.90, 0.95) prediction intervals, using weather type enhances the ratio of the multi-objective approach by 2%¿. Also, comparing the multi-objective approach versus the two baselines for high-coverage intervals, the improvement is 11%¿% over QR and 10%¿% over GBR. Improvements for low-coverage intervals (0.85) are smaller.The authors are supported by projects funded by Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Spain (PID2019-107455RB-C21 and PID2019-107455RB-C22/AEI/10.13039/501100011033). Also supported by Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project ENE2014-56126-C2-1-R and ENE2014-56126-C2-2-R (http://prosol.uc3m.es). The University of Jaén team is also supported by FEDER, Spain funds and by the Junta de Andalucía, Spain (Research group TEP-220

Detection of occludable angle with anterior segment optical coherence tomography and Pentacam as non-contact screening methods

Purpose To evaluate diagnostic capacity for occludable anterior chamber angle detection with anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) and Pentacam. Methods Observational cross-sectional study with AS-OCT and Pentacam. AS-OCT measures: angle opening distance from Schwalbe line (SL) perpendicular (AOD-SL-Perp) and vertical to iris (AOD-SL-Vert), and iridotrabecular angle (ITA). Pentacam measures: anterior chamber depth (ACD), anterior chamber volume (ACV), and anterior chamber angle (ACA). We analysed Spearman's correlation with gonioscopic classification. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for occludable angle detection were compared. Agreement between iridocorneal values of methods was evaluated. Results Seventy-four left eyes of 74 patients. Correlation between temporal AS-OCT and gonioscopy: 0.83 (p < 0.0001) AOD-SL-Perp temporal, 0.82 (p < 0.0001) AOD-SL-Vert temporal, and 0.69 (p < 0.0001) ITA temporal. Correlation between AS-OCT nasal and gonioscopy: 0.74 (p < 0.0001) AOD-SL-Perp nasal, 0.74 (p < 0.0001) AOD-SL-Vert nasal, and 0.70 (p < 0.0001) ITA nasal. Correlation of Pentacam with temporal gonioscopy: 0.57 (p < 0.0001) ACD, 0.56 (p < 0.0001) ACV, and 0.63 (p < 0.0001) ACA. Correlation of Pentacam with nasal gonioscopy: 0.47 (IC 0.27-0.73, p < 0.0001) ACD, 0.49 (p < 0.0001) ACV, and 0.56 (CI 0.38-0.7, p < 0.0001) ACA. AS-OCT AUCs: AOD-SL-Perp temporal 0.89 (CI 0.80-0.95), AOD-SL-Vert 0.87 (CI 0.77-0.94), ITA temporal 0.88 (CI 0.78-0.94), AOD-SL-Perp nasal 0.83 (CI 0.72-0.91), AOD-SL-Vert nasal 0.87 (CI 0.77-0.94), and ITA nasal 0.91 (IC 0.81-0.96). Pentacam AUCs: ACD 0.76 (CI 0.64-0.85), ACV 0.75 (CI 0.63-0.84), and ACA 0.84 (CI 0.74-0.92). No statistical differences between different AUCs. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of ACA (Pentacam) with ITA temporal (AS-OCT) 0.59 and with nasal ITA nasal (AS-OCT) 0.65. Conclusion Both systems show high capacity for non-contact occludable angle detection. But agreement between methods is moderate or low

LPA1/3 receptor antagonist KI16425 as a novel treatment for the neurobehavioural effects of the ethanol

Aims. The lysophosphatidic acid (LPA) is an ubiquitous lysophospholipid that acts through G-protein coupled receptors (LPA1-6), and it is involved in the modulation of emotional and motivational behaviors. Recent literature suggests a relevant role of the LPA signaling system in alcoholism, specially through the LPA1 receptor. This work aims to elucidate whether systemic LPA1/3 receptor blockade with ki16425 would modulate ethanol effects on the brain and behavior. Methods. This study consisted of four experiments assessing the effect of intraperitoneal ki16425 administration (20 mg/kg) on ethanol-related behaviors. Male Wistar rats or mice (Swiss, C57BL/6J or hybrid C57BL/6J×129X1/SvJ background) were employed in various procedures: I) oral ethanol selfadministration; II) loss of righting reflex; III) ethanol-induced conditioned place preference (CPP) and IV) ethanol-withdrawal behavioral symptoms (by assessing nest building, physical signs and spatial working memory). Immunohistochemistry was carried out in order to evaluate basal neuronal activity (c-Fos) in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and in the hippocampus, as well as adult hippocampal neurogenesis (AHN) using proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) and doublecortin (DCX) markers. Results. Systemic Ki16425 administration reduced oral self-administration of ethanol in previously trained rats. Likewise, ki16425 pretreatment in mice attenuated the sedation induced by ethanol, blocked ethanol rewarding effect in a CPP paradigm and reduced behavioral symptoms induced by ethanol withdrawal. Immunohistochemistry revealed a protective effect of ki16425 against ethanol actions on basal neuronal activity in the mPFC and on AHN. Conclusions. Our results suggest a potential usefulness of systemic LPA1/3 receptors antagonists as a novel treatment for alcohol-related disorders.Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Green BPM: ciclo de vida de procesos de negocio incorporando aspectos ambientales

La adopción del paradigma de BPM es cada vez más frecuente en las organizaciones ante los beneficios que esto conlleva en términos de mejoras en la productividad. Por otra parte, la responsabilidad con el medio ambiente es también un compromiso creciente de las organizaciones y que además impacta en los aspectos productivos y tecnológicos. La incorporación de conceptos de tecnología dentro de los procesos de negocio contribuye a la mejora continua de los mismos. A su vez, el concepto de Green IT considera los aspectos tecnológicos en lo que respecta a la protección del medio ambiente durante el ciclo de vida de las TI (Tecnologías de Información). Este artículo integra los conceptos de Green IT a BPM mediante la incorporación de indicadores “verdes” dentro del ciclo de vida de los procesos de negocio y la incorporación de “Alertas Verdes” que permiten definir un ciclo de vida Green BPM y su aplicación a un caso de estudio.XV Workshop Ingeniería de Software (WIS)Red de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI

Green BPM: ciclo de vida de procesos de negocio incorporando aspectos ambientales

La adopción del paradigma de BPM es cada vez más frecuente en las organizaciones ante los beneficios que esto conlleva en términos de mejoras en la productividad. Por otra parte, la responsabilidad con el medio ambiente es también un compromiso creciente de las organizaciones y que además impacta en los aspectos productivos y tecnológicos. La incorporación de conceptos de tecnología dentro de los procesos de negocio contribuye a la mejora continua de los mismos. A su vez, el concepto de Green IT considera los aspectos tecnológicos en lo que respecta a la protección del medio ambiente durante el ciclo de vida de las TI (Tecnologías de Información). Este artículo integra los conceptos de Green IT a BPM mediante la incorporación de indicadores “verdes” dentro del ciclo de vida de los procesos de negocio y la incorporación de “Alertas Verdes” que permiten definir un ciclo de vida Green BPM y su aplicación a un caso de estudio.XV Workshop Ingeniería de Software (WIS)Red de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI

Green BPM: ciclo de vida de procesos de negocio incorporando aspectos ambientales

La adopción del paradigma de BPM es cada vez más frecuente en las organizaciones ante los beneficios que esto conlleva en términos de mejoras en la productividad. Por otra parte, la responsabilidad con el medio ambiente es también un compromiso creciente de las organizaciones y que además impacta en los aspectos productivos y tecnológicos. La incorporación de conceptos de tecnología dentro de los procesos de negocio contribuye a la mejora continua de los mismos. A su vez, el concepto de Green IT considera los aspectos tecnológicos en lo que respecta a la protección del medio ambiente durante el ciclo de vida de las TI (Tecnologías de Información). Este artículo integra los conceptos de Green IT a BPM mediante la incorporación de indicadores “verdes” dentro del ciclo de vida de los procesos de negocio y la incorporación de “Alertas Verdes” que permiten definir un ciclo de vida Green BPM y su aplicación a un caso de estudio.XV Workshop Ingeniería de Software (WIS)Red de Universidades con Carreras en Informática (RedUNCI

Results of a computer application for self-evaluation of the practical classes of Parasitology in the Pharmacy Degree

Se ha desarrollado una aplicación para los alumnos de “Parasitología” (2º curso de Farmacia) que contiene información e imágenes de parásitos obtenidas de las mismas preparaciones que observan en las clases prácticas. Con ella pueden repasar y autoevaluar los conocimientos adquiridos. Para evaluar el proyecto, se ha permitido el acceso ilimitado a la aplicación a 74 alumnos, durante los 9 días en que realizaron sus prácticas. Las calificaciones obtenidas han sido comparadas con un grupo control de 75 alumnos que realizó las prácticas el curso anterior en fechas coincidentes con las del grupo de este trabajo y con los mismos profesores. La comparación de las calificaciones arroja un incremento medio de 0,7 puntos (sobre 10). Estudiando estos datos según rangos de puntuación, se observa que el grupo experimental ha disminuido el porcentaje de suspensos (2,50%), incrementándose 9,95% los alumnos con calificación ≥9,0 (sobre 10). Estos alumnos han contestado una encuesta anónima en la que nos dan su opinión acerca de la usabilidad, organización, diseño y calidad de la aplicación, suficiencia de la información aportada, utilidad de la autoevaluación, mejora del aprendizaje y resultados obtenidos en la autoevalución de la aplicación, así como su opinión sobre posibles mejoras de la misma, valorando entre 1 (pésimo) y 5 (óptimo). La encuesta, respondida por 50 alumnos de 74, arrojó una media global de 4,28 sobre 5. El alumnado expresó su satisfacción por contar con esta herramienta de apoyo a las prácticas.A computer application for students in "Parasitology (2nd year of Pharmacy) that contains information and pictures of the parasites obtained from the same preparations that observed in practical classes has been developed. With this computer tool, the students can review and self-evaluation their learning. For the evaluation of the project, a 74 students group was allowed unlimited access to the computer application during the 9 days that did their practices. The scores obtained have been compared with a control group of 75 students who did the practice the previous year on dates coinciding with the group of this study and with the same teachers. The comparison of the ratings shows an average increase of 0.7 points (on 10). Studying these data according to score ranges, it appears that the experimental group decreased the failure rate (2.50%), increasing 9.95% rating students with ≥ 9.0 (on 10). These students have answered an anonymous survey in which they give their opinion about the usability, organization, design and quality of implementation, fitness of provided information, the utility of selfevaluation, improvement of learning and evaluation their results in the implementation as well as their views on possible improvements to it, from 1 (very poor) to 5 (excellent). The survey was answered by 50 students from 74, giving an overall average of 4.28 points on 5. The students expressed their satisfaction with this computer tool available to support practices.Este trabajo ha sido realizado gracias al proyecto PID 08-50, subvencionado por la Unidad de Innovación Docente de la Universidad de Granada