Institutional Commitment Problems and Regional Autonomy: The Catalan Case

This article examines what constitutional arrangements are more likely to facilitate the transfer of effective decision-making power to the regional level. We show that certain constitutional arrangements can result in institutional commitment problems between regional minority and national majority groups, which in turn influence levels of regional autonomy across regions. Specifically, we examine how the depth and scope of decentralization depend on the presence of federal agreements and the availability of institutional guarantees that make the federal contracts credible. Analyzing regional-level data, we show that regions where identity minority groups are majoritarian enjoy more regional autonomy when the commitment problem has resulted in a satisfactory national accommodation. Our findings highlight two important scenarios. The first occurs when the institutional commitment problem is solved, and regional minority groups are granted substantial levels of regional autonomy. The second scenario takes place when the commitment problem is not institutionally accommodated, and hence regional minority groups have systematically lower levels of autonomy. This article illustrates that both federal contracts and credible agreements are important tools to understand regional decision-making powers

Crisis? What crisis? Economic recovery and support for independence in Catalonia

Many political commentators and politicians claim that the effects of the Great Recession account for the surge in support for independence in Catalonia. However, available evidence does not point to a significant role having been played by the economic crisis in this political process. To enhance our understanding of the potential effects of changing economic conditions, we extend our analysis to the subsequent period, when economic recovery had taken place in Catalonia. Even in this very different economic scenario, the same results are found: that is, no evidence of a systematic relationship between changes in economic variables and variations in support for independence

Competing for the centre ground the ideological bias on turnout

This thesis is focused on studying centrist abstention, by analysing crosscountry differences and also, centrist individuals’ propensity to turn out. Despite the literature claiming that abstention is higher on the left, this dissertation proves that the centre abstains more, which constitutes a paradox and a neglected aspect until now. By studying centrist abstention in different European countries, I highlight another unattended perspective: some factors that induce abstention may have a heterogeneous effect depending on individuals’ position on the ideological scale. After integrating two groups of factors that the literature has considered separately and can potentially explain this phenomenon, the first article shows that variation on centrist abstention rates across countries is explained, above all, by certain party configurations. In a second step, the analysis focuses on centrist self-placement, partially accepting the conventional idea that the centre is only a refuge for those with low political sophistication and putting emphasis on other hypotheses like the role of parties. The last part of the thesis concentrates precisely on the heterogeneous effect of alienation and indifference, two controversial party scenarios whose impact is still unknown. Overall, this thesis offers both a comprehensive study and a new approach to explain why centrist abstention is observedAquesta Tesi Doctoral se centra en l’estudi de l’abstenció del centre. En concret, analitza les diferències en l’abstenció centrista entre països i la propensió d’alguns individus centristes a abstenir-se. Malgrat que la literatura ha defensat que l’abstenció és patrimoni de l’esquerra, la tesi que teniu a les mans mostra que el centre s’absté més, la qual cosa constitueix una paradoxa segons el model racional i un aspecte que no s’havia tingut en compte fins el dia d’avui. A partir d’aquest fet, es presta atenció a un enfocament poc desenvolupat i que pot explicar el fenomen aquí analitzat: alguns factors que augmenten la probabilitat d’abstenir-se poden tenir un efecte heterogeni, basat en la idea que el seu efecte depèn de la posició de la persona en l’eix ideològic. Després d’integrar dues explicacions que la literatura ha tractat de forma divergent, el primer article mostra que la variació en l’abstenció del centre entre països s’explica, en gran part, per diferents escenaris partidistes. En un segon nivell, l’anàlisi se centra en l’autoubicació centrista, rebutjant la idea que el centre constitueix únicament una posició refugi per aquells que tenen una sofisticació política baixa. La investigació mostra la importància dels partits en dirigir els individus cap a aquesta posició. L’última part de la tesi es focalitza en l’estudi de dos escenaris partidistes controvertits pel poc coneixement que en tenim fins ara: l’alienació i la indiferència. Especial atenció mereixen les explicacions d’aquests fenòmens i l’existència de possibles efectes heterogenis que certs factors poden tenir. Amb tot, aquesta tesi ofereix un estudi exhaustiu i un nou enfocament per explicar el per què de l’abstenció d’aquesta crucial posició ideològica

Reconciling context and contact with immigrants effects: an examination of the Catalan case

Contact theory and threat group theory offer contradictory hypotheses regarding the effect of contact with immigrants. Despite recent efforts to test the validity of both approaches, we still lack a definitive conclusion. This article integrates both approaches and tests the effect of contact towards immigrants and how this changes when different contexts are considered. Mainly, we investigate the effect of the economic environment and the immigrant group size on modifying attitudes toward immigration. The hypotheses, which are tested in Catalonia, show that contact with immigrants reduce negative attitudes towards immigration, especially friendship and family contact. However, mixed results are reported regarding the effect of economic environment and immigrant group size. Whereas the former modifies positively the effect of workplace contact, the latter has no effect. Findings have implications for the impact of context when dealing with the impact of contact on attitudes towards immigration

The turnout bias in the Spanish electoral system

La manipulación del sistema electoral español por parte de las elites que condujeron la transición política ha sido demostrada en numerosos estudios. Esta manipulación pasa por la existencia de un gran número de circunscripciones de baja magnitud y su interacción con la desviación del prorrateo, la fórmula de Hondt y, sobre todo, el efecto de varianza de las magnitudes del distrito. En este artículo se introduce un nuevo sesgo no estudiado hasta ahora y que facilitó también la victoria de UCD: el sesgo de participación. Se demostrará que la manipulación del sistema condujo a que UCD obtuviera sistemáticamente la victoria en aquellos distritos con menos participación y que sus rivales ganaran en las zonas más participativas. El «precio» de los escaños de UCD fue, por tanto, menor. Tal sesgo se ha mantenido y sigue beneficiando a los partidos que obtienen su apoyo en las zonas que menos participan y que, a su vez, son las más sobrerrepresentadas

Ideologia i abstenció a nivell comparat

Aquesta base de dades conté el percentatge d'abstenció en diferents posicions ideològiques en diversos països europeus del 1964 al 2013. La base de dades s'ha construït a partir d'enquestes diferents i es complementa amb indicadors del sistema de partits i de les institucions polítiques. Per a més informació, consulteu http://hdl.handle.net/10803/13081

Frozen or malleable? Political ideology in the face of job loss and unemployment

Includes supplementary materials for the online appendix.To what degree do people adjust their political ideology in response to job loss? To answer this question, we draw on Dutch panel data over the period 2007–2016, paying special attention to the potential moderating role of various personal circumstances. We find that, on average, job loss triggers a leftward ideological response. Although small in size, this shock effect persists when people remain unemployed or find new employment, yet in the longer run it wears off. Furthermore, we find that job loss prompts a bigger shift to the left when people are simultaneously confronted with a major drop in household income, when they have fewer financial resources to serve as a buffer, and when they are more pessimistic about the economy. While we also observe many people who revise their ideology to the right during our study window, these rightward shifts do not seem driven by job loss experiences

Zooming in on the ‘Europeanisation’ of national politics: a comparative analysis of six EU countries

This article empirically revisits and tests the effect of individual distance from parties on the EU integration dimension and on the left–right dimension for vote choice in both national and European elections. This analysis is based on the unique European Election Study (EES) 2014 survey panel data from seven EU countries. Our findings show that in most countries the effect of individual distance on the EU integration dimension is positive and significant for both European and national elections. Yet the effect of this dimension is not uniform across all seven countries, revealing two scenarios: one in which it is only relevant for Eurosceptic voters and the other in which it is significant for voters of most parties in the system. The first is mainly related to the presence of a ‘hard’ Eurosceptic party in the party supply, but the second, which indicates a more advanced level of Europeanisation of party systems, is not explained by most current theoretical and empirical contributions. We conclude by proposing two additional explanations for this latter scenario in which the EU integration dimension is present for most voters in both type of elections, including those voting for the main parties. Our findings and further discussion have implications for the understanding of the Europeanisation of national politics and its relationship with vote choice

The burden of a violent past: formative experiences of repression and support for secession in Catalonia

This letter studies the impact of past violence and repression on current territorial preferences in a contemporary democracy. Does a violent past lay the grounds for pro-secessionist preferences, or does it lead individuals to cling on to the territorial status quo? We study whether exposure to the events of the Spanish Civil War and its immediate aftermath made people more or less likely to support Catalan secession from Spain. Our analysis employs a dataset that combines a large N of individual-level survey data with historical data about repression and violence in each Catalan municipality. Findings indicate that current preferences for secession tend to diminish among the oldest Catalan generation that was exposed to higher levels of violence in their municipality. Most crucially, we show that exposure to violence created a sense of apathy towards politics among the oldest cohort, which eventually leads to a lower predisposition to support secession, a feeling that was not transmitted to subsequent generations. Our findings qualify some of the existing knowledge on the effects of past political violence on present political attitudes

The dog that didn’t bark: on the effect of the Great Recession on the surge of secessionism

This paper explores the relationship between the economic turmoil generated by the Great Recession and the increase of secessionism in different regions of Western countries. Some authors have stressed that the Great Recession triggered profound changes in political attitudes and preferences and, in the context of a conflict between the centre and the periphery, fuelled secessionism as a radical shift of the institutional setup. Nevertheless, other researchers have remarked that a deep recession may make voters more accommodating with the status quo and more reluctant to take radical stances. Our paper aims at contributing to this debate by analyzing the case of Catalonia. We use the variation of economic variables and data from surveys and electoral outcomes at the level of municipalities to explore the relationship between the deterioration of the economic situation (that is, the local variation in the intensity of the crisis) and the increase of preferences for secession among the Catalan population. The findings from the analysis of our empirical models do not support the hypothesis that the heterogeneous effects of the Great Recession had any significant impact on political preferences at the level of municipality in Catalonia. These findings contribute to our understanding of the effects of hard economic times on people s attitudes and behaviour