Is death from Covid-19 a multistep process?

ABSTRACTCovid-19 death has a different relationship with age than is the case for other severe respiratory pathogens. The Covid-19 death rate increases exponentially with age, and the main risk factors are age itself, as well as having underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, severe chronic respiratory disease and cancer. Furthermore, the almost complete lack of deaths in children suggests that infection alone is not sufficient to cause death; rather, one must have gone through a number of changes, either as a result of undefined aspects of aging, or as a result of chronic disease. These characteristics of Covid-19 death are consistent with the multistep model of disease, a model which has primarily been used for cancer, and more recently for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We applied the multi-step model to data on Covid-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) from China, South Korea, Italy, Spain and Japan. In all countries we found that a plot of ln (CFR) against ln (age) was approximately linear with a slope of about 5. As a comparison, we also conducted similar analyses for selected other respiratory diseases. SARS showed a similar log-log age-pattern to that of Covid-19, albeit with a lower slope, whereas seasonal and pandemic influenza showed quite different age-patterns. Thus, death from Covid-19 and SARS appears to follow a distinct age-pattern, consistent with a multistep model of disease that in the case of Covid-19 is probably defined by comorbidities and age producing immune-related susceptibility. Identification of these steps would be potentially important for prevention and therapy for SARS-COV-2 infection.</jats:p

Electrochemical properties of substituted 2-methyl-1,4-naphthoquinones: Redox behavior predictions

© 2015 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA Weinheim. In the context of the investigation of drug-induced oxidative stress in parasitic cells, electrochemical properties of a focused library of polysubstituted menadione derivatives were studied by cyclic voltammetry. These values were used, together with compatible measurements from literature (quinones and related compounds), to build and evaluate a predictive structure-redox potential model (quantitative structure-property relationship, QSPR). Able to provide an online evaluation (through Web interface) of the oxidant character of quinones, the model is aimed to help chemists targeting their synthetic efforts towards analogues of desired redox propertie

Electrochemical Properties of Substituted 2-Methyl-1,4-Naphthoquinones: Redox Behavior Predictions

© 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim. In the context of the investigation of drug-induced oxidative stress in parasitic cells, electrochemical properties of a focused library of polysubstituted menadione derivatives were studied by cyclic voltammetry. These values were used, together with compatible measurements from literature (quinones and related compounds), to build and evaluate a predictive structure-redox potential model (quantitative structure-property relationship, QSPR). Able to provide an online evaluation (through Web interface) of the oxidant character of quinones, the model is aimed to help chemists targeting their synthetic efforts towards analogues of desired redox properties

Post-Laser Twin Anemia Polycythemia Sequence: Diagnosis, Management, and Outcome in an International Cohort of 164 Cases.

The aim of this study was to investigate the management and outcome in the post-laser twin anemia polycythemia sequence (TAPS). Data of the international TAPS Registry, collected between 2014 and 2019, were used for this study. The primary outcomes were perinatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity. Secondary outcomes included a risk factor analysis for perinatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity. A total of 164 post-laser TAPS pregnancies were included, of which 92% (151/164) were diagnosed antenatally and 8% (13/164) postnatally. The median number of days between laser for TTTS and detection of TAPS was 14 (IQR: 7-28, range: 1-119). Antenatal management included expectant management in 43% (62/151), intrauterine transfusion with or without partial exchange transfusion in 29% (44/151), repeated laser surgery in 15% (24/151), selective feticide in 7% (11/151), delivery in 6% (9/151), and termination of pregnancy in 1% (1/151). The median gestational age (GA) at birth was 31.7 weeks (IQR: 28.6-33.7; range: 19.0-41.3). The perinatal mortality rate was 25% (83/327) for the total group, 37% (61/164) for donors, and 14% (22/163) for recipients (p < 0.001). Severe neonatal morbidity was detected in 40% (105/263) of the cohort and was similar for donors (43%; 51/118) and recipients (37%; 54/145), p = 0.568. Independent risk factors for spontaneous perinatal mortality were antenatal TAPS Stage 4 (OR = 3.4, 95%CI 1.4-26.0, p = 0.015), TAPS donor status (OR = 4.2, 95%CI 2.1-8.3, p < 0.001), and GA at birth (OR = 0.8, 95%CI 0.7-0.9, p = 0.001). Severe neonatal morbidity was significantly associated with GA at birth (OR = 1.5, 95%CI 1.3-1.7, p < 0.001). In conclusion, post-laser TAPS most often occurs within one month after laser for TTTS, but may develop up to 17 weeks after initial surgery. Management is mostly expectant, but varies greatly, highlighting the lack of consensus on the optimal treatment and heterogeneity of the condition. Perinatal outcome is poor, particularly due to the high rate of perinatal mortality in donor twins

Perinatal outcome of monochorionic triamniotic triplet pregnancy: multicenter cohort study

Objective Monochorionic (MC) triplet pregnancies are extremely rare and information on these pregnancies and their complications is limited. We aimed to investigate the risk of early and late pregnancy complications, perinatal outcome and the timing and methods of fetal intervention in these pregnancies.Methods This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study of MC triamniotic (TA) triplet pregnancies managed in 21 participating centers around the world from 2007 onwards. Data on maternal age, mode of conception, diagnosis of major fetal structural anomalies or aneuploidy, gestational age (GA) at diagnosis of anomalies, twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS), twin anemia-polycythemia sequence (TAPS), twin reversed arterial perfusion (TRAP) sequence and or selective fetal growth restriction (sFGR) were retrieved from patient records. Data on antenatal interventions were collected, including data on selective fetal reduction (three to two or three to one), laser surgery and any other active fetal intervention (including amniodrainage). Data on perinatal outcome were collected, including numbers of live birth, intrauterine demise, neonatal death, perinatal death and termination of fetus or pregnancy (TOP). Neonatal data such as GA at birth, birth weight, admission to neonatal intensive care unit and neonatal morbidity were also collected. Perinatal outcomes were assessed according to whether the pregnancy was managed expectantly or underwent fetal intervention.Results Of an initial cohort of 174 MCTA triplet pregnancies, 11 underwent early TOP, three had an early miscarriage, six were lost to follow-up and one was ongoing at the time of writing. Thus, the study cohort included 153 pregnancies, of which the majority (92.8%) were managed expectantly. The incidence of pregnancy affected by one or more fetal structural abnormality was 13.7% (21/153) and that of TRAP sequence was 5.2% (8/153). The most common antenatal complication related to chorionicity was TTTS, which affected just over one quarter (27.6%; 42/152, after removing a pregnancy with TOP < 24 weeks for fetal anomalies) of the pregnancies, followed by sFGR (16.4%; 25/152), while TAPS (spontaneous or post TTTS with or without laser treatment) occurred in only 4.6% (7/152) of pregnancies. No monochorionicity-related antenatal complication was recorded in 49.3% (75/152) of pregnancies. Survival was apparently associated largely with the development of these complications: there was at least one survivor beyond the neonatal period in 85.1% (57/67) of pregnancies without antenatal complications, in 100% (25/25) of those complicated by sFGR and in 47.6% (20/42) of those complicated by TTTS. The overall rate of preterm birth prior to 28 weeks was 14.5% (18/124) and that prior to 32 weeks' gestation was 49.2% (61/124).Conclusion Monochorionicity-related complications, which can impact adversely perinatal outcome, occur in almost half of MCTA triplet pregnancies, creating a challenge with regard to counseling, surveillance and management. (c) 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology

Treatment and outcome of 370 cases with spontaneous or post-laser twin anemia-polycythemia sequence managed in 17 fetal therapy centers.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the antenatal management and outcome in a large international cohort of monochorionic twin pregnancies with spontaneous or post-laser twin anemia-polycythemia sequence (TAPS). METHODS: This study analyzed data of monochorionic twin pregnancies diagnosed antenatally with spontaneous or post-laser TAPS in 17 fetal therapy centers, recorded in the TAPS Registry between 2014 and 2019. Antenatal diagnosis of TAPS was based on fetal middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity > 1.5 multiples of the median (MoM) in the TAPS donor and < 1.0 MoM in the TAPS recipient. The following antenatal management groups were defined: expectant management, delivery within 7 days after diagnosis, intrauterine transfusion (IUT) (with or without partial exchange transfusion (PET)), laser surgery and selective feticide. Cases were assigned to the management groups based on the first treatment that was received after diagnosis of TAPS. The primary outcomes were perinatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity. The secondary outcome was diagnosis-to-birth interval. RESULTS: In total, 370 monochorionic twin pregnancies were diagnosed antenatally with TAPS during the study period and included in the study. Of these, 31% (n = 113) were managed expectantly, 30% (n = 110) with laser surgery, 19% (n = 70) with IUT (± PET), 12% (n = 43) with delivery, 8% (n = 30) with selective feticide and 1% (n = 4) underwent termination of pregnancy. Perinatal mortality occurred in 17% (39/225) of pregnancies in the expectant-management group, 18% (38/215) in the laser group, 18% (25/140) in the IUT (± PET) group, 10% (9/86) in the delivery group and in 7% (2/30) of the cotwins in the selective-feticide group. The incidence of severe neonatal morbidity was 49% (41/84) in the delivery group, 46% (56/122) in the IUT (± PET) group, 31% (60/193) in the expectant-management group, 31% (57/182) in the laser-surgery group and 25% (7/28) in the selective-feticide group. Median diagnosis-to-birth interval was longest after selective feticide (10.5 (interquartile range (IQR), 4.2-14.9) weeks), followed by laser surgery (9.7 (IQR, 6.6-12.7) weeks), expectant management (7.8 (IQR, 3.8-14.4) weeks), IUT (± PET) (4.0 (IQR, 2.0-6.9) weeks) and delivery (0.3 (IQR, 0.0-0.5) weeks). Treatment choice for TAPS varied greatly within and between the 17 fetal therapy centers. CONCLUSIONS: Antenatal treatment for TAPS differs considerably amongst fetal therapy centers. Perinatal mortality and morbidity were high in all management groups. Prolongation of pregnancy was best achieved by expectant management, treatment by laser surgery or selective feticide. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology

Prenatal phenotyping: A community effort to enhance the Human Phenotype Ontology.

Technological advances in both genome sequencing and prenatal imaging are increasing our ability to accurately recognize and diagnose Mendelian conditions prenatally. Phenotype-driven early genetic diagnosis of fetal genetic disease can help to strategize treatment options and clinical preventive measures during the perinatal period, to plan in utero therapies, and to inform parental decision-making. Fetal phenotypes of genetic diseases are often unique and at present are not well understood; more comprehensive knowledge about prenatal phenotypes and computational resources have an enormous potential to improve diagnostics and translational research. The Human Phenotype Ontology (HPO) has been widely used to support diagnostics and translational research in human genetics. To better support prenatal usage, the HPO consortium conducted a series of workshops with a group of domain experts in a variety of medical specialties, diagnostic techniques, as well as diseases and phenotypes related to prenatal medicine, including perinatal pathology, musculoskeletal anomalies, neurology, medical genetics, hydrops fetalis, craniofacial malformations, cardiology, neonatal-perinatal medicine, fetal medicine, placental pathology, prenatal imaging, and bioinformatics. We expanded the representation of prenatal phenotypes in HPO by adding 95 new phenotype terms under the Abnormality of prenatal development or birth (HP:0001197) grouping term, and revised definitions, synonyms, and disease annotations for most of the 152 terms that existed before the beginning of this effort. The expansion of prenatal phenotypes in HPO will support phenotype-driven prenatal exome and genome sequencing for precision genetic diagnostics of rare diseases to support prenatal care

Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics

In many infectious diseases, an unknown fraction of infections produce symptoms mild enough to go unrecorded, a fact that can seriously compromise the interpretation of epidemiological records. This is true for cholera, a pandemic bacterial disease, where estimates of the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections have ranged from 3 to 100 (refs 1-5). In the absence of direct evidence, understanding of fundamental aspects of cholera transmission, immunology and control has been based on assumptions about this ratio and about the immunological consequences of inapparent infections. Here we show that a model incorporating high asymptomatic ratio and rapidly waning immunity, with infection both from human and environmental sources, explains 50 yr of mortality data from 26 districts of Bengal, the pathogen's endemic home. We find that the asymptomatic ratio in cholera is far higher than had been previously supposed and that the immunity derived from mild infections wanes much more rapidly than earlier analyses have indicated. We find, too, that the environmental reservoir(5,6) (free-living pathogen) is directly responsible for relatively few infections but that it may be critical to the disease's endemicity. Our results demonstrate that inapparent infections can hold the key to interpreting the patterns of disease outbreaks. New statistical methods(7), which allow rigorous maximum likelihood inference based on dynamical models incorporating multiple sources and outcomes of infection, seasonality, process noise, hidden variables and measurement error, make it possible to test more precise hypotheses and obtain unexpected results. Our experience suggests that the confrontation of time-series data with mechanistic models is likely to revise our understanding of the ecology of many infectious diseases.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62519/1/nature07084.pd