Geostatistical evaluation of integrated marsh management impact on mosquito vectors using before-after-control-impact (BACI) design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In many parts of the world, salt marshes play a key ecological role as the interface between the marine and the terrestrial environments. Salt marshes are also exceedingly important for public health as larval habitat for mosquitoes that are vectors of disease and significant biting pests. Although grid ditching and pesticides have been effective in salt marsh mosquito control, marsh degradation and other environmental considerations compel a different approach. Targeted habitat modification and biological control methods known as Open Marsh Water Management (OMWM) had been proposed as a viable alternative to marsh-wide physical alterations and chemical control. However, traditional larval sampling techniques may not adequately assess the impacts of marsh management on mosquito larvae. To assess the effectiveness of integrated OMWM and marsh restoration techniques for mosquito control, we analyzed the results of a 5-year OMWM/marsh restoration project to determine changes in mosquito larval production using GIS and geostatistical methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The following parameters were evaluated using "Before-After-Control-Impact" (BACI) design: frequency and geographic extent of larval production, intensity of larval production, changes in larval habitat, and number of larvicide applications. The analyses were performed using Moran's I, Getis-Ord, and Spatial Scan statistics on aggregated before and after data as well as data collected over time. This allowed comparison of control and treatment areas to identify changes attributable to the OMWM/marsh restoration modifications.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The frequency of finding mosquito larvae in the treatment areas was reduced by 70% resulting in a loss of spatial larval clusters compared to those found in the control areas. This effect was observed directly following OMWM treatment and remained significant throughout the study period. The greatly reduced frequency of finding larvae in the treatment areas led to a significant decrease (~44%) in the number of times when the larviciding threshold was reached. This reduction, in turn, resulted in a significant decrease (~74%) in the number of larvicide applications in the treatment areas post-project. The remaining larval habitat in the treatment areas had a different geographic distribution and was largely confined to the restored marsh surface (i.e. filled-in mosquito ditches); however only ~21% of the restored marsh surface supported mosquito production.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The geostatistical analysis showed that OMWM demonstrated considerable potential for effective mosquito control and compatibility with other natural resource management goals such as restoration, wildlife habitat enhancement, and invasive species abatement. GPS and GIS tools are invaluable for large scale project design, data collection, and data analysis, with geostatistical methods serving as an alternative or a supplement to the conventional inference statistics in evaluating the project outcome.</p

Anthropogenic impacts on mosquito populations in North America over the past century.

The recent emergence and spread of vector-borne viruses including Zika, chikungunya and dengue has raised concerns that climate change may cause mosquito vectors of these diseases to expand into more temperate regions. However, the long-term impact of other anthropogenic factors on mosquito abundance and distributions is less studied. Here, we show that anthropogenic chemical use (DDT; dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and increasing urbanization were the strongest drivers of changes in mosquito populations over the last eight decades in areas on both coasts of North America. Mosquito populations have increased as much as tenfold, and mosquito communities have become two- to fourfold richer over the last five decades. These increases are correlated with the decay in residual environmental DDT concentrations and growing human populations, but not with temperature. These results illustrate the far-reaching impacts of multiple anthropogenic disturbances on animal communities and suggest that interactions between land use and chemical use may have unforeseen consequences on ecosystems

Distribution and Abundance of Host-seeking Culex Species at Three Proximate Locations with Different Levels of West Nile Virus Activity

Culex species were monitored at three proximate sites with historically different West Nile virus (WNV) activities. The site with human WNV transmission (epidemic) had the lowest abundance of the putative bridge vectors, Culex pipiens and Cx. salinarius. The site with horse cases but not human cases (epizootic) had the highest percent composition of Cx. salinarius, whereas the site with WNV-positive birds only (enzootic) had the highest Cx. pipiens abundance and percent composition. A total of 29 WNV-positive Culex pools were collected at the enzootic site, 17 at the epidemic site, and 14 at the epizootic site. Published models of human risk using Cx. pipiens and Cx. salinarius as the primary bridge vectors did not explain WNV activity at our sites. Other variables, such as additional vector species, environmental components, and socioeconomic factors, need to be examined to explain the observed patterns of WNV epidemic activity

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus(WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input

Predicting risk of West Nile virus (WNV) human transmission in Suffolk County, New York based on environmental and socioeconomic factors

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen of public health importance worldwide. Environmental and socioeconomic factors can significantly influence WNV human transmission risk by altering the likelihood of exposure to infected mosquito vectors. This study utilized a case-control approach based on geographic location to explore the association between the risk of vector-borne WNV and habitat, landscape, virus activity, and socioeconomic parameters in Suffolk County, NY. Eco-epidemiology conceptual framework was applied through Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to develop a logistic regression model to investigate factors predictive of the presence of acute WNV human cases at geographic household locations in 2000-04. Positive associations with WNV risk in the model included the following environmental factors: natural vegetation (p = .051) and road (p = .031) fragmentation, wetlands (p = .046), and geographic proximity to WNV mosquito activity (p = .001). Environmental factors negatively associated with WNV human risk included woody wetlands ( p = .001), groundwater recharge basins (p = .087), and proximity to tidal wetlands (p The resulting WNV risk map was verified with a 2005-08 WNV human case dataset. The 2000-04 dataset’s risk map sensitivity of 89% was significantly higher than 55% for the 2005-08 dataset (p = .031). However, higher proportion of WNV human cases (>90%) were located inside or in close proximity to the high risk areas than expected by chance (p = .023). This study contributed to a better understanding of factors associated with WNV human risk generating a sub-county level epidemiological map, which is expected to enhance WNV surveillance and control efforts. The novel approach employed herein may be implemented by other municipal, local, or state public health agencies to improve geographic risk estimates for vector-borne diseases based on a small number of acute human cases

Mosquito Surveillance for West Nile Virus

Identifying the mosquitoes responsible for transmitting human disease-causing pathogens is of critical importance for effective control of mosquito-borne outbreaks. West Nile virus is often transferred by adult female mosquitoes in the genus Culex, which deposit eggs in a variety of aquatic habitats throughout the world. Herein we describe several methodological approaches to monitor these species in nature, as well as offering details for data collection and analysis

Modeling of historical and current distributions of lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae), is consistent with ancestral range recovery

The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum L., is a three-host hard tick notorious for aggressive feeding behavior. In the early to mid-20th century, this species’ range was mostly limited to the southern USA. Since the 1950s, A. americanum has been detected in many new localities in the western, northcentral, and northeastern regions of the country. To examine the influence of climate on this apparent expansion, we used historical (1748–1950) lone star locations from the literature and museum records to model areas suitable for this species based on past environmental conditions in the late 1800s – early 1900s. We then projected this model forward using present (2011–2020) climatic conditions and compared the two for evidence of climate-associated distributional shifts. A maximum entropy distribution or Maxent model was generated by using a priori selected climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure deficit. Temperature and vapor pressure deficit were selected as the most important factors in creating a sensitive and specific model (success rate = 82.6 ± 6.1%) that had a good fit to the existing data and was significantly better than a random model [partial ROC (receiver operating characteristic) to AUC (area under the ROC curve) ratio = 1.97 ± 0.07, P \u3c 0.001]. The present projected model was tested with an independent dataset of curated museum records (1952–2020) and found to be 95.6% accurate. Comparison of past and present models revealed \u3e 98% A. americanum niche overlap. The model suggests that some areas along the western fringe are becoming less suitable for A. americanum, whereas areas in some Great Lakes and coastal northeastern regions are becoming more suitable, results that are compatible with possible effects of climate change. However, these changes are minor, and overall climate in North America does not appear to have changed in ways significant to A. americanum’s distribution. These findings are consistent with an alternative hypothesis that recent changes in A. americanum’s distribution are a result of this species re-occupying its historical range, driven predominantly by factors other than climate, such as shifts in land use and population densities of major hosts