How far away is hydrogen? Its role in the medium and long-term decarbonisation of the European energy system

n/

JRC-EU-TIMES 2017 Upgrade: Buildings and heating & cooling technologies

The present report describes two main upgrades that have been made to the JRC-EU-TIMES model during the year 2017: • An improvement of the description of residential and non-residential buildings • An update of data and a new representation for heating &cooling and heat distribution technologies The model updates have been validated through tests with the JRC-EU-TIMES model and with stylised models allowing isolating the observed effect of the changed model input. The updates performed greatly improve the ability of the JRC-EU-TIMES model to perform studies options for the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Investigating the energy transition to a coal free residential sector in Kazakhstan using a regionally disaggregated energy systems model

Problems with unsustainable use of energy by households and lack of access to energy infrastructure require effective actions from the policy makers. Energy system models can usefully analyze future residential sector energy pathways "within" the full energy system. However, few energy system models have been developed with disaggregated sub-national regional detail, building type and urban/rural divisions. This paper addresses this key gap. Disaggregating the residential sector by building categories allows improved representation of the range of energy transition options across building categories. We incorporated a novel detailed building stock module into a 16-region TIMES energy systems model for Kazakhstan, using statistical data on the housing stock and building energy audit reports. We then explore the introduction of a coal ban and use scenario analysis to identify the most cost-effective heating technologies for the different regions and different building types. Implications of the residential sector policies to the supply side energy infrastructure were also quantified. The energy transition (from solid fuels to cleaner alternatives) is rarely achievable without Government intervention, therefore scenarios with ban on coal use and clean energy technology subsidies (micro-CHP, heat pumps and solar space heaters) have been investigated in this study. The results indicate that in rural areas networked gas (for detached households) and district heating (for flats) are more economically viable substitutes to coal, even with subsidies offered for clean technologies. In the scenario with the constraint on gas network expansion and clean technology subsidies, there is a wide utilization of heat pumps in detached rural houses. Subsidies for retrofit measures are effective with wide utilization, especially in the areas affected by the coal ban, with up to 76% reduction of the useful energy demand. The total amount of allocated subsidies for clean technologies amounted for up to 32% and 8% of the current state social and health care expenditures. A coal ban in the residential sector is estimated to achieve emissions reductions for PM2.5 and CO of 92% and 95%, respectively (compared to the base year level), even accounting for emissions from the supply side (power plants, heat plants)

Cooperation benefits of Caspian countries in their energy sector development

This paper studies the development possibilities of the energy systems of four Central Asia and Caspian countries. It explores options that improve their domestic energy efficiencies and increase their export of fossil energy commodities. Using the MARKAL-TIMES modelling tool, it represents their energy system with a bottom-up partial economic equilibrium growth model. With the help of scenario analyses, it evaluates the direct economic advantage of improving the domestic energy efficiencies. Furthermore it calculates the direct economic advantage of cooperation. It finds out that a new/different geo-economic attitude brings USD billions of annual economic benefits, particularly if the countries aim to differentiate their export routes, increase the amount of export and contribute to climate change mitigation. Keywords: Caspian oil and gas, Export-oriented scenarios, Cross-country infrastructures, Energy systems analysis, Technical economic growth models, Energy balances and statistic

A “risk-induced” emission mitigation pathway for Kazakhstan

The key goal of this research is to propose a method (and a tool) to explore the evolution of the energy sector in Kazakhstan subject to a flexible “user-defined” criterion (e.g. perception of risk of competitiveness loss for the system), so as to trigger the transition towards the emission reduction in an “indirect” manner. The undertaken experiments show that risk reduction policies can be very “synergic” with mitigation ambitions, or, in other words, that the transition towards GHG mitigation can be pushed by other forces (rather than by pure environmental concerns only). The potential beneficiaries of such a type of analysis are groups of stakeholders of various nature: decision makers, academia, civil society, experts interested in proposing/testing alternative formulation of the additional criterion of the analysis (risky configuration of the energy mix) and in assessing the impacts on the energy and climate dynamics of Kazakhstan. The “basic” structure of the model (upon which the updated and more targeted version of the model used in this study is built) is available on a collaborative platform. This study is part of the research material that aims to support the investigation of carbon neutrality pathways in Kazakhstan and it can be seen as a continuation and further development of the “Kazakhstan's Road to Net Zero GHG Emission Vision”

Techno-economic modelling to strategize energy exports in the Central Asian Caspian region

Abstract This paper studies the concept of energy security from export-oriented countries’ point of view. It aims to test the effects of long-term energy export strategies in the Central Asian Caspian (CAC) region, by exploring the trade-offs between a “risk” indicator and some key variables of the energy system such as the total cost, the quantities exported, and the corresponding revenues. Risk reduction goals are combined with securing a minimum level of revenues from the hydrocarbon exports goals. It is also attempted to provide a definition and a quantification of a risk indicator on the basis of four components.The analysis makes use of a techno-economic energy system model to quantitatively evaluate the response of the energy sector to energy security risks, and its sensitivity to different export strategies

How far away is hydrogen? Its role in the medium and long-term decarbonisation of the European energy system

Hydrogen is a promising avenue for decarbonising energy systems and providing flexibility. In this paper, the JRC-EU-TIMES model – a bottom-up, technology-rich model of the EU28 energy system– is used to assess the role of hydrogen in a future decarbonised Europe under two climate scenarios, current policy initiative (CPI) and long-term decarbonisation (CAP). Our results indicate that hydrogen could become a viable option already in 2030 – however, a long-term CO2 cap is needed to sustain the transition. In the CAP scenario, the share of hydrogen in the final energy consumption of the transport and industry sectors reaches 5% and 6% by 2050. Low-carbon production technologies dominate, and electrolysers provide flexibility by absorbing electricity at times of high availability of intermittent sources. Hydrogen could also play a significant role in the industrial and transport sectors, while the emergence of stationary hydrogen fuel cells for hydrogen-to-power would require significant cost improvements, over and above those projected by the experts.JRC.F.6-Energy Technology Policy Outloo

Electricity and heating system in Kazakhstan: Exploring energy efficiency improvement paths

Abstract The Kazakh energy system is less efficient than most other national energy systems. The electricity and heat sub-systems account for about one half of the difference between the primary energy supply and the final consumption. After reviewing the technology chains of electricity and heat generation, transmission and distribution and their organisation, this paper presents scenario studies on the possible evolutions of these sub-systems to 2030. It describes the representation of the heat and electricity chains in the MARKAL–TIMES-Kazakhstan model, with focus on the residential and commercial sectors, and some key input data assumptions. The main scenario drivers are the need to improve the efficiency of electricity and heat in the residential and commercial sectors and to reduce GHG emissions from the energy system as a whole. The model results point to the possibility of achieving cost effective energy efficiency improvement of more than 2% per annum and it would entail a net economic advantage to the country

ПУТЬ КАЗАХСТАНА К НУЛЕВЫМ ВЫБРОСАМ ПАРНИКОВЫХ ГАЗОВ

In December 2020 President of Kazakhstan Mr. Tokayev announced that Kazakhstan would become carbon neutral country by 2060. This work aims to investigate how to reach carbon neutrality in Kazakhstan and it is a continuation of the “Kazakhstan’s Road to Net Zero GHG Emission Vision” project that was initiated when President had declared carbon neutrality aim. This is a very ambitious aim given that con- siderable amount of energy in Kazakhstan is generated using coal power plants. The main challenges that are faced by Kazakhstan are high dependence on coal for electricity and heat generation, lack of funds to invest in renewable energy resources, transport, inef- ficiency of the government spending on miti- gation activities, high emissions in cropland. Kazakhstan will have to find money to cut off coal use and transit to carbon neutral technologies to produce energy in an efficient way with minimal damage to economy. This project investigates how to reach carbon neutrality in the most efficient and cost-effective way. The project develops Kazakhstan’s carbon neutrality path using both short and long term vision. In the context of the COP event held in Glasgow in November 2021, Kazakhstan’s approach to carbon neutrality might be interesting to other countries. The results of this work were presented COP 26 in Glasgow, UK. The report is divided into chapters. First several chapters investigate solutions in Energy, Transport, Agriculture and Waste sectors. Further general issues such as carbon trading system, technology transfer and financial topics are analyzed. And finally regional cooperation options are discussed