Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change

Weather fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), add to the riskiness associated with agricultural production. Improved predictive capacity may help ameliorate negative impacts of climate and weather shocks on agriculture, but it is possible that the benefits of an improved forecast will be distributed unevenly. In particular, poor farmers may not have access to improved forecasts, or they may not have the means to adapt to new weather information. This paper uses a stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the distributive effects of improved forecasting of ENSO in Mexico. The particular focus is on agriculture, one of the most vulnerable sectors in the face of ENSO, as well as a sector which provides income to many of the country's poorest households. The model is used to investigate the responsiveness of various sectors of the economy under different degrees of improved predictive capacity and improvements in agricultural technology....The results show that while agricultural losses are small as a share of the overall economy, improved forecasting techniques can eliminate these lossesStochastic analysis ,Agriculture Environmental aspects Mexico ,Climatic changes Models ,Agricultural productivity ,Forecasting ,TMD ,

Methodological considerations of integrating portable digital technologies in the analysis and management of complex superimposed Californian pictographs: From spectroscopy and spectral imaging to 3-D scanning

How can the utilization of newly developed advanced portable technologies give us greater understandings of the most complex of prehistoric rock art? This is the questions driving The Gordian Knot project analysing the polychrome Californian site known as Pleito. New small transportable devices allow detailed on-site analyses of rock art. These non-destructive portable technologies can use X-ray and Raman technology to determine the chemical elements used to make the pigment that makes the painting; they can use imaging techniques such as Highlight Reflective Transformation Imaging and dStretch© to enhance their visibility; they can use digital imagery to disentangle complex superimposed paintings; and they can use portable laser instruments to analyse the micro-topography of the rock surface and integrate these technologies into a 3-D environment. This paper outlines a robust methodology and preliminary results to show how an integration of different portable technologies can serve rock art research and management

Development of EHD Ion-Drag Micropump for Microscale Electronics Cooling Systems

In this investigation, the numerical simulation of electrohydrodynamic (EHD) ion-drag micropumps with micropillar electrode geometries have been performed. The effect of micropillar height and electrode spacing on the performance of the micropumps was investigated. The performance of the EHD micropump improved with increased applied voltage and decreased electrode spacing. The optimum micropillar height for the micropump with electrode spacing of 40$\mu$m and channel height of 100$\mu$m at 200V was 40$\mu$m, where a maximum mass flow rate of 0.18g/min was predicted. Compared to that of planar electrodes, the 3D micropillar electrode geometry enhanced the overall performance of the EHD micropumps.Comment: Submitted on behalf of TIMA Editions (http://irevues.inist.fr/tima-editions

A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used widely in policy analysis. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to and facilitate the use of CGE models. The paper includes a detailed presentation of a “standard” CGE model (an equation-by-equation description) and its required database. It incorporates features developed in recent years in research projects conducted at IFPRI. These features, which are of particular importance in developing countries, include household consumption of non-marketed (or “home”) commodities, explicit treatment of transaction costs for commodities that enter the market sphere, and a separation between producing activities and commodities that permits any activity to produce multiple commodities and any commodity to be produced by multiple activities. The paper discusses the implementation of the model in GAMS (the General Algebraic Modeling System) and is accompanied by a self-extracting zip file, which includes the GAMS files for the model, sample databases, simulations, solution reports, and a SAM aggregation program. Although the paper provides a standardized framework for analysis, the analyst is not forced to make “one-size-fits-all” assumptions. The GAMS code is written in a manner that gives the analyst considerable flexibility in model specification.Household consumption ,economic policies ,mathematical models ,TMD ,

Estimating income mobility in Colombia using maximum entropy econometrics.:

Income mobility can be viewed as a first-order Markov process, with a matrix of transition probabilities which measure how individuals move from an income status in time t to a new status in time t+1. Direct estimation of transition matrices is difficult, since time series panel data are unavailable and limited data on the distribution of income do not suffice to determine the coefficients mathematically, let alone provide enough degrees of freedom for estimation. In this paper, we show that maximum entropy econometrics offers a feasible way to estimate transition matrices using distributional data from Colombia. Using a cross-entropy estimation method, we make efficient use of prior information about the structure of the transition matrices and how they vary with age. The approach is very flexible, allowing the use of “information” in a variety of forms such as inequality constraints, errors in measurement, and prior estimates. Under weak assumptions about the error generation process, we can derive test statistics based on the likelihood ratio measuring the significance of the estimation. The model fits the data well in that the predicted and actual distributions for period t+1 are close. The results show that there is a large degree of upward mobility in Colombia, especially at the bottom of the income distribution and for the younger age cohorts.Income distribution, Econometric models., Colombia. ,

Geographic variation in statin use for complex acute myocardial infarction patients: evidence of effective care?

Reprinted with permission of publisher.BACKGROUND: Despite strong evidence to designate statin use for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) as "effective care," observational studies show that many patients with CVD do not receive statins. This suggests that statin prescribing decisions for complex CVD patients are preference sensitive. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate local area variation in statin prescribing for subsets of complex patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) to assess whether current statin prescribing patterns fit profiles of either "effective care" or "preference-sensitive care." RESEARCH DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 124,618 Medicare patients with fee-for-service parts A, B, and D benefits who were hospitalized with AMI in 2008 or 2009 with no evidence of AMI in the past 12 months. MEASURES:Patient complexity was defined by the presence of diabetes, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease in the year before AMI admission. Local area practice styles for "no statin," "lower-intensity statins," and "high-intensity statins" were measured using the driving area for clinical care method. Statin prescribing rates for complex patient subsets were contrasted across patients grouped by local areas practice styles. RESULTS: Lower statin treatment rates were observed for patients with complex conditions, especially among those with heart failure. However, substantial local area variation in statin prescribing is observed across all complex patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: Despite guidelines promoting the use of statins for secondary prevention for CVD patients, substantial local area variation suggests that patient and provider beliefs and preferences weigh heavily in statin prescribing decisions.This project was supported by an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality grant (1R21HS019574-01) under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

Multiple sensor smart robot hand with force control

A smart robot hand developed at JPL for the Protoflight Manipulator Arm (PFMA) is described. The development of this smart hand was based on an integrated design and subsystem architecture by considering mechanism, electronics, sensing, control, display, and operator interface in an integrated design approach. The mechanical details of this smart hand and the overall subsystem are described elsewhere. The sensing and electronics components of the JPL/PFMA smart hand are summarized and it is described in some detail in control capabilities

2003-2004 Fall Training Evaluation For Graduate Assistants

The Literacy/Reading program for Graduate Assistants teaching developmental reading students at a large, state university currently provides one week of teacher training prior to the beginning of the Fall Semester. The small group of graduate assistants in this program (including the program coordinator) are primary instructors and teach one or two sections of developmental reading, test taking, time management, and learning strategies. The main purpose for evaluating the training program was to determine the effectiveness of the training. Data was collected through a Likert survey, which included some qualitative questions, and person-to-person interviews. The results of the Likert survey are that the high quality of the training sessions, the presenters, and the strategies that were presented helped graduate assistants to better do their jobs. The results of the qualitative questions and person-to-person interviews also conclude that the fall training was very helpful and should definitely be continued. However, the results of the qualitative portion of the study also yielded additional, unexpected insights into the perceptions of graduate assistants who feel they are marginalized graduate students, teaching marginalized college courses (Reading and Study Strategies), and serving a marginalized population of students—developmental university students

Diode laser 87Rb optical pumping in an evacuated wall-coated cell

The evacuated wall coated sealed cell coupled with diode laser optical pumping offers a number of attractive potential advantages for use in Rb or Cs atomic frequency standards. An investigation of systematic effects is required to explore possible limitations of the technique. The use of diode laser optical pumping of 87 Rb in an evacuated wall coated sealed cell is presented. Experimental results/discussion to be presented include the signal strength and line broadening of the 0 - 0 hyperfine resonance as a function of light intensity for the D1 optical transitions (F - F prime) - (2 1 prime) and (2 - 2 prime), shift of the 0 - 0 hyperfine frequency as a function of laser intensity and de-tuning from optical resonance, and diode laser frequency stabilization techniques