Assessing Potential Habitat and Carrying Capacity for Reintroduction of Plains Bison (\u3ci\u3eBison bison bison\u3c/i\u3e) in Banff National Park

Interest in bison (Bison bison, B. bonasus) conservation and restoration continues to grow globally. In Canada, plains bison (B. b. bison) are threatened, occupying less than 0.5% of their former range. The largest threat to their recovery is the lack of habitat in which they are considered compatible with current land uses. Fences and direct management make range expansion by most bison impossible. Reintroduction of bison into previously occupied areas that remain suitable, therefore, is critical for bison recovery in North America. Banff National Park is recognized as historical range of plains bison and has been identified as a potential site for reintroduction of a wild population. To evaluate habitat quality and assess if there is sufficient habitat for a breeding population, we developed a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model for the proposed reintroduction and surrounding areas in Banff National Park (Banff). We then synthesize previous studies on habitat relationships, forage availability, bison energetics and snowfall scenarios to estimate nutritional carrying capacity. Considering constraints on nutritional carrying capacity, the most realistic scenario that we evaluated resulted in an estimated maximum bison density of 0.48 bison/km2. This corresponds to sufficient habitat to support at least 600 to 1000 plains bison, which could be one of the largest 10 plains bison populations in North America. Within Banff, there is spatial variation in predicted bison habitat suitability and population size that suggests one potential reintroduction site as the most likely to be successful from a habitat perspective. The successful reintroduction of bison into Banff would represent a significant global step towards conserving this iconic species, and our approach provides a useful template for evaluating potential habitat for other endangered species reintroductions into their former range

Wolf-Cougar Co-occurrence in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains

Cougars and wolves are top predators that can influence the dynamics of an ecosystem, including prey behavior, dynamics, and interspecific competition. I am examining co-occurrence between wolves and cougars in the Central Alberta Rockies using occupancy modeling. I hypothesize that cougars will have lower occupancy of higher quality habitat in the presence of wolves; cougars will be restricted to higher elevations, more rugged terrain, and areas with lower NPP than the areas occupied by wolves. To test this overall hypothesis, we collected data from 167 remote wildlife cameras in Banff, Jasper, and Yoho National Parks and use co-occurrence models to explicitly test the effects of wolves on cougars. We examined co-occurrence between seasons, summer (May 1 – October 31) and winter (Nov 1 – April 30), in seven-day intervals. From naïve occupancy models, summer cougar occupancy was 0.35 with a detection probability of 0.202 and winter occupancy was 0.157 with a detection probability of 0.065. Summer wolf occupancy was 0.625 with a detection probability of 0.209, while winter occupancy was 0.435 with a detection probability of 0.134. The larger proportional, seasonal decline in cougar occupancy in winter is intriguing because prey density is higher during the winter, meaning cougar-wolf competition may increase during winter; wolf presence may impact both cougar detection and occupancy.  Preliminary co-occurrence models support our hypothesis that wolves can potentially outcompete cougars in our system. This study is important because the literature about wolf-cougar co-occurrence provides mixed results: mostly cougars are secondary predators to wolves, but occasionally, cougars are unaffected by wolf presence

Spatial structure of boreal woodland caribou populations in northwest Canada

Local population units (LPUs) were delineated in Canada’s recovery strategy for threatened boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Population viability analyses central to contemporary integrated risk assessments of LPUs implicitly assume geographic closure. Several LPUs in northwest Canada, however, were in part delineated by geopolitical boundaries and/or included large areas in the absence of evidence of more finely resolved population spatial structure. We pooled >1.2 million locations from >1200 GPS or VHF-collared caribou from northeast British Columbia, northwest Alberta and southwestern Northwest Territories. Bayesian cluster analysis generated 10 alternative candidate LPUs based on a spatial cluster graph of the extent of pairwise co-occurrence of collared caribou. Up to four groups may be artifacts in as yet under-sampled areas. Four were mapped LPUs that were conserved (Prophet, Parker, Chinchaga and Red Earth).  One small group between Parker and Snake-Sahtaneh known locally as the “Fort Nelson core,” and outside any mapped LPU, was also conserved. Finally, one large group, at >136000 km2, spanned all three jurisdictions and subsumed all of six delineated LPUs (Maxhamish, Snake-Sahtaneh, Calendar, Bistcho, Yates, Caribou Mountains) and part of southern Northwest Territories. These results suggest less geographic closure of LPUs than those currently delineated, but further analyses will be required to better reconcile various sources of knowledge about local population structure in this region.  &nbsp

Testing umbrella species and food-web properties of large carnivores in the Rocky Mountains

Despite criticisms, the umbrella species concept remains a fundamental conservation tool for protecting biodiversity in the face of global change, yet it is rarely tested. Food web theory provides a tool to test both umbrella-species' suitability and their ecological function, which we investigate in a large-mammal food web. Using data from 698 camera trap locations in the Canadian Rockies, we develop hierarchical occupancy models to predict the co-occurrence of 16 large mammal species. We draw upon previous diet studies in the Canadian Rockies to describe the meta food-web (meta-web) for these species. Next, we filtered the meta-web using predicted occupancy to estimate realized food webs at each camera location. We tested the umbrella species concept using predicted occupancy across all 698 camera sites. We then tested for carnivore effects using realized food webs on 5 food-web properties: species richness, links, connectance, nestedness and modularity using generalized linear models while accounting for landscape covariates known to affect food web dynamics. Our multispecies occupancy models reflected factors previously demonstrated to affect large mammal occurrence. Our results also demonstrated that grizzly bear (Ursus horribilis), a generalist carnivore, was the best umbrella carivore species, and explained species richness the best. When considering food web properties, however, wolves (Canis lupus) and cougars (Felis concolor) served as better umbrellas that also captured food web properties such as connectance, links and nestedness that better reflect ecological interactions. Our results support the role of large carnivores as umbrella and ecologically interactive species in conservation planning

Data from: Camera-based occupancy monitoring at large scales: power to detect trends in grizzly bears across the Canadian Rockies

Monitoring carnivores is critical for conservation, yet challenging because they are rare and elusive. Few methods exist for monitoring wide-ranging species over large spatial and sufficiently long temporal scales to detect trends. Remote cameras are an emerging technology for monitoring large carnivores around the world because of their low cost, non-invasive methodology, and their ability to capture pictures of species of concern that are difficult to monitor. For species without uniquely identifiable spots, stripes, or other markings, cameras collect detection/non-detection data that are well suited for monitoring trends in occupancy as its own independent useful metric of species distribution, as well as an index for abundance. As with any new monitoring method, prospective power analysis is essential to ensure meaningful trends can be detected. Here we test camera-based occupancy models as a method to monitor changes in occupancy of a threatened species, grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), at large landscape scales, across 5 Canadian national parks (~21,000 km2). With n = 183 cameras, the top occupancy model estimated regional occupancy to be 0.79 across all 5 parks. We evaluate the statistical power to detect simulated 5–40% declines in occupancy between two sampling years and test applied questions of how power is affected by the spatial scale of interest (park level vs. regional level), the number of cameras deployed, and duration of camera deployment. We also explore several ecological mechanisms (i.e., spatial patterns) of decline in occupancy, and examine how power changes when focusing only on grizzly bears family groups. As hypothesized, statistical power increased with the number of cameras and with the number of days deployed. Power was unaffected, however, by the ecological mechanisms of decline, indicating that our systematic sampling design can detect a decline regardless of whether occupancy declined due to range edge attrition, ecological trap or other mechanisms. Despite their lower occupancy, power was similarly high for grizzly bear family groups compared to grizzly bears in general. We highlight which study design attributes contributed to high power and we provide advice for establishing cost-effective camera-based programs for monitoring large carnivore occupancy at large spatial scales

LARGE-SCALE CAMERA TRAPPING AND LARGE-CARNIVORE MONITORING, OCCUPANCY-ABUNDANCE RELATIONSHIPS, AND FOOD-WEBS

Large carnivores play important roles in structuring ecosystems, but carnivores are often the first species lost from an ecosystem. Carnivores are important conservation tools to protect, garner support for, and indicates changes in, biodiversity. One of the challenges in understanding both the ecological and conservation roles of carnivores, however, is that they tend to be rare and elusive. Furthermore, the need for conservation is increasing while budgets for conservation remain tight. Efficiency is needed to monitor multiple carnivore species. Remote cameras may offer an efficient means to meet these challenges collecting data simultaneously on many species. Data from cameras for species that are not uniquely identifiable can be used to estimate occupancy, i.e. the proportion of area occupied. Occupancy data is cost-effective and a recommended state variable to monitor population trends. As with any new monitoring method, prospective power analysis is essential. Using n = 183 remote cameras across 5 national parks, I test how camera-based occupancy models can monitor changes in grizzly bear occupancy. As hypothesized, statistical power increased with both the number of cameras and the number of days cameras were deployed, but power was not affected by the ecological mechanisms of decline. Furthermore, when monitoring multiple species, species-specific occupancy and detection probability estimates can affect statistical power. I also examined how sampling scales define occupancy and occupancy-abundance relationships (OA) in mobile animals. I found that the temporal scale of sampling greatly affected the definition of occupancy, which ranges from occupancy of single or multiple individuals, to partial use by one individual or many individuals. With point-sampling, however, spatial grain had little affect on occupancy estimates or the OA relationship, helping pave the way for robust multi-species monitoring. Ideally, multiple-species monitoring can also provide information on how species interact in food-webs. Using occupancy models for 16 mammal species in the Canadian Rockies (n = 698 cameras), I compare carnivores as candidate umbrella species and assesses their ecological role in food-web structure. Grizzly bear occupancy was highly correlated with other species’ occupancy, but wolves were more correlated with how food webs changed across the landscape. This corroborates the importance of wolves as a keystone species and advances the umbrella-species concept beyond conserving biodiversity. With the insights gained from my research, camera networks can be easily scaled-up to monitoring the planet\u27s biodiversity. Remote cameras excite public support to ultimately help make successes in global conservation possible

Grizzly bear occupancy Site Covariates

This dataset contains site covariates present in the top occupancy models for both grizzly bear occupancy data set

All grizzly bear occupancy data

- This dataset contains all detection-non-detection data for pictures from all grizzly bears. 1 indicates at least one picture; 0 indicates no pictures; NA indicates camera not running. - Each row contains data from one camera site - Each columns contains data from one 4-day sampling replicate - Names of column corresponds to the number of the first day of each 4-day windo

Grizzly bear family occupancy data

This dataset is similar to all grizzly bear data, but only contains detection-non-detection data for pictures of grizzly bear family group

Wolf-Cougar Occupancy Modelling in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada

Cougars (Puma concolor) and wolves (Canis lupis) are top predators that influence the dynamics of an ecosystem, including prey behavior and dynamics, and interspecific competition. I am examining co-occurrence between wolves and cougars in the Central Alberta Rockies using occupancy modeling. I hypothesize that cougars will be pushed out of higher quality habitat in the presence of wolves, to higher elevations, more rugged terrain, and areas with lower NPP than the areas occupied by wolves. There is a system of 167 remote wildlife cameras in Banff, Jasper, and Yoho National Parks; I am using the 2013 data for analysis. I have separated the data into logical seasons to better understand cooccurence patterns, summer (May 1 – October 31) and winter (Nov 1 – April 30), and it is separated into seven-day increments. From naïve occupancy models, summer cougar occupancy is 0.35 with a detection probability of 0.202 and winter occupancy is 0.157 with a detection probability of 0.0674. Summer wolf occupancy is 0.625 with a detection probability of 0.209, while winter occupancy is 0.435 with a detection probability of 0.134. The larger proportional, seasonal difference for cougar occupancy is intriguing because prey density is higher during the winter, meaning cougar-wolf competition may increase during winter; wolf presence may impact cougar detection and occupancy. This will be explored in the study, as well as covariates describing cougar and wolf occupancy separately and together. This study is important because the literature about wolf-cougar cooccurence provides mixed results: mostly cougars are secondary predators to wolves, but occasionally, cougars are unaffected by wolf presence. Understanding these interactions in this specific site will add to the literature and provide insight into the study ecosystems