Energy, Obsolescence, and the Productivity Slowdown

The growth rate of output per worker in the U.S. declined sharply during the 1970's. A leading explanation of this phenomenon holds that the dramatic rise in energy prices during the 1970's caused a significant portion of the U.S. capital stock to become obsolete. This led to a decline in effective capital input which, in turn, caused a reduction in the reduction in the growth rate of output per worker. This paper examines a key prediction of this hypothesis. If there is a significant link between energy and capital obsolescence, it should be revealed in the market price of used capital: if rising energy costs did in fact render older, energy-inefficient capital obsolete, prospective buyers should have reduced the price that they were willing to pay for that capital. An examination of the market for used capital before and after the energy price shocks should thus reveal the presence and magnitude of the obsolescence effect. We have carried out this examination for four types of used machine tools and five types of construction equipment. We did not find a general reduction in the price of used equipment after the energy price shocks. Indeed, the price of used construction equipment - the more energy intensive of our two types of capital - tended to increase after 1973. We thus conclude that our data do not support the obsolescence explanation of the productivity of slowdown.

Forecasting using relative entropy

The paper describes a relative entropy procedure for imposing moment restrictions on simulated forecast distributions from a variety of models. Starting from an empirical forecast distribution for some variables of interest, the technique generates a new empirical distribution that satisfies a set of moment restrictions. The new distribution is chosen to be as close as possible to the original in the sense of minimizing the associated Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, or relative entropy. The authors illustrate the technique by using several examples that show how restrictions from other forecasts and from economic theory may be introduced into a model's forecasts.Forecasting

The Business of Personal Jurisdiction

This contribution to a symposium on business and the Roberts Court examines the recent significant reshaping of the contours of personal jurisdiction. Although the changes limit the scope of jurisdiction in ways that may favor defendants overall, the Court does not appear directly motivated by a desire to favor business—and, in fact, the Court erected significant obstacles to business interests in some contexts. Instead, the results in the cases may be better explained by the Court’s commitment to a formalist approach with respect for territorial boundaries and by a skepticism of transnational litigation not clearly related to a U.S. forum. The Court’s recent changes to the discovery rules suggest that its rulemaking approach, in contrast, may align more directly with business interests. Chief Justice Roberts’ report summarizing the new rules parallels the language used by business advocates who focus on the expense of lawsuits and the toll that litigation takes on business. In the report, he writes that the discovery changes are important “to help ensure that federal court litigation does not degenerate into wasteful clashes over matters that have little to do with achieving a just result.” The Court’s more business-protective approach to discovery does not undercut the Court’s formalist commitment, but rather likely reflects a continued regard for the separation of powers even in the Court itself, where the rulemaking function can more directly encompass policy interests than the Court’s adjudication function. While the revised discovery rules may lessen litigation costs overall, however, they do not take account of the need for jurisdictional discovery and do not help resolve the jurisdictional analysis. This oversight is unfortunate, as the Court’s new equilibrium in personal jurisdiction means that factual development will become increasingly important. It is no longer enough to say that a defendant has continuous, systematic, and substantial contacts within the forum; instead, parties will have to develop a factual foundation that explores the nature, scope, extent, and duration of those contacts and explains how those contacts relate to the substance of the claim asserted. Without further refinement of the rules of jurisdictional discovery, courts and parties alike will struggle to reconcile the jurisdictional question with the available tools of discovery

A New State Registration Act: Legislating a Longer Arm for Personal Jurisdiction

In a sextet of recent decisions, the Roberts Court upended the longstanding framework for general and specific contacts-based personal jurisdiction. The Court\u27s new approach has engendered uncertainty and erected insurmountable obstacles for some plaintiffs in locating an effective forum to vindicate their rights. We propose a novel solution to the injustices and unpredictability unleashed by these decisions: a new model corporate registration act that would require, as a condition of doing business in a state, the corporation\u27s consent to personal jurisdiction in defined circumstances that implicate state sovereign regulatory, protective, and prescriptive interests.Registration-based consent to jurisdiction has a long pedigree, dating back to the years before the Fourteenth Amendment\u27s ratification. For much of its history, however, registration-based jurisdictional consent languished in obscurity, as general doing business jurisdiction overshadowed the doctrine. With the Supreme Court\u27s recent at-home trilogy sounding the death knell of general continuous and systematic contacts jurisdiction, the constitutional propriety of interpreting a state corporate registration scheme to require the corporation\u27s all-purpose jurisdictional consent for claims arising anywhere in the world is in doubt. Instead of litigating the meaning and ongoing validity of these longstanding registration statutes, we recommend that the states adopt a modernized jurisdictional-consent statute that ensures an appropriate state jurisdictional reach and operates within the Supreme Court\u27s pronounced adjudicative framework.We draft and evaluate a proposal for such a statute, which we believe the Uniform Law Commission is especially well situated to consider, refine, and promulgate for the states\u27 benefit. Such a statute would avoid the wasteful expense of litigating the interpretation of registration statutes initially adopted during the heyday of the horse and buggy. More importantly, the proposed act would allow the states to assert their sovereign authority to ensure access to justice for their residents after the dismantling of general jurisdiction. By precisely tailoring the statute to states\u27 sovereign interests, the proposed act avoids constitutional pitfalls while still providing an effective jurisdictional reach for the states after the Roberts Court\u27s jurisdictional revolution

Causation’s Due Process Dimensions

For decades, courts have grappled with the tension between compensating victims of mass harms and maintaining fairness to defendants when causation is difficult to prove. This Article argues that the Supreme Court’s due process jurisprudence provides a relevant framework for navigating this tension. We contend that the Court over the last three decades has established a consistent due process approach in punitive damages and personal jurisdiction cases, which is rooted in antecedents tracing to the nineteenth century and relies on a nexus of interests that balances individual rights, state interests, and federalism concerns. This framework, we argue, has significant implications for evaluating the constitutionality of tort doctrines like market-share liability and innovator liability, which challenge traditional notions of causation. Our analysis reveals that these doctrines may be vulnerable in some applications to constitutional challenge under the Court’s modern due process approach. We trace the evolution of the Court’s jurisprudence, demonstrating how it emphasizes the relationship between plaintiff’s harm, defendant’s conduct, and the forum state’s interest. Applying this framework to market-share and innovator liability, we suggest that causation itself may have constitutional dimensions. This finding has far-reaching implications for mass tort litigation and could reshape how courts approach cases involving multiple actors and attenuated chains of causation. By bridging the gap between due process jurisprudence and tort law, this Article offers a new perspective on longstanding debates about liability in complex cases and provides a roadmap for courts navigating these challenging waters

Forecasting using relative entropy

The paper describes a relative entropy procedure for imposing moment restrictions on simulated forecast distributions from a variety of models. Starting from an empirical forecast distribution for some variables of interest, the technique generates a new empirical distribution that satisfies a set of moment restrictions. The new distribution is chosen to be as close as possible to the original in the sense of minimizing the associated Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, or relative entropy. The authors illustrate the technique by using several examples that show how restrictions from other forecasts and from economic theory may be introduced into a model's forecasts

Subseasonal-to-interdecadal variability of the Australian monsoon over North Queensland

Daily rainfall occurrence and amount at 11 stations over North Queensland are examined for summers 1958–1998, using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Daily rainfall variability is described in terms of the occurrence of five discrete ‘weather states’, identified by the HMM. Three states are characterized respectively by very wet, moderately wet, and dry conditions at most stations; two states have enhanced rainfall along the coast and dry conditions inland. Each HMM rainfall state is associated with a distinct atmospheric circulation regime. The two wet states are accompanied by monsoonal circulation patterns with large-scale ascent, low-level inflow from the north-west, and a phase reversal with height; the dry state is characterized by circulation anomalies of the opposite sense. Two of the states show significant associations with midlatitude synoptic waves. Variability of the monsoon on time-scales from subseasonal to interdecadal is interpreted in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of the five HMM rainfall states. Large subseasonal variability is identified in terms of active and break phases, and a highly variable monsoon onset date. The occurrence of the very wet and dry states is somewhat modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation. On interannual time-scales, there are clear relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interdecadal monsoonal variability is characterized by stronger monsoons during the 1970s, and weaker monsoons plus an increased prevalence of drier states in the later part of the record. Stochastic simulations of daily rainfall occurrence and amount at the 11 stations are generated by introducing predictors based on large-scale precipitation from (a) reanalysis data, (b) an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) run with observed SST forcing and (c) antecedent June–August Pacific SST anomalies. The reanalysis large-scale precipitation yields relatively accurate station-level simulations of the interannual variability of daily rainfall amount and occurrence, with rainfall intensity less well simulated. At some stations, interannual variations in 10-day dry-spell frequency are also simulated reasonably well. The interannual quality of the simulations is markedly degraded when the GCM simulations are used as inputs, while antecedent Pacific SST inputs yield an anomaly correlation skill comparable to that of the GCM

Subseasonal-to-interdecadal variability of the Australian monsoon over North Queensland

Daily rainfall occurrence and amount at 11 stations over North Queensland are examined for summers 1958–1998, using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Daily rainfall variability is described in terms of the occurrence of five discrete ‘weather states’, identified by the HMM. Three states are characterized respectively by very wet, moderately wet, and dry conditions at most stations; two states have enhanced rainfall along the coast and dry conditions inland. Each HMM rainfall state is associated with a distinct atmospheric circulation regime. The two wet states are accompanied by monsoonal circulation patterns with large-scale ascent, low-level inflow from the north-west, and a phase reversal with height; the dry state is characterized by circulation anomalies of the opposite sense. Two of the states show significant associations with midlatitude synoptic waves. Variability of the monsoon on time-scales from subseasonal to interdecadal is interpreted in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of the five HMM rainfall states. Large subseasonal variability is identified in terms of active and break phases, and a highly variable monsoon onset date. The occurrence of the very wet and dry states is somewhat modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation. On interannual time-scales, there are clear relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interdecadal monsoonal variability is characterized by stronger monsoons during the 1970s, and weaker monsoons plus an increased prevalence of drier states in the later part of the record. Stochastic simulations of daily rainfall occurrence and amount at the 11 stations are generated by introducing predictors based on large-scale precipitation from (a) reanalysis data, (b) an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) run with observed SST forcing and (c) antecedent June–August Pacific SST anomalies. The reanalysis large-scale precipitation yields relatively accurate station-level simulations of the interannual variability of daily rainfall amount and occurrence, with rainfall intensity less well simulated. At some stations, interannual variations in 10-day dry-spell frequency are also simulated reasonably well. The interannual quality of the simulations is markedly degraded when the GCM simulations are used as inputs, while antecedent Pacific SST inputs yield an anomaly correlation skill comparable to that of the GCM

A response to “Likelihood ratio as weight of evidence: a closer look” by Lund and Iyer

Recently, Lund and Iyer (L&I) raised an argument regarding the use of likelihood ratios in court. In our view, their argument is based on a lack of understanding of the paradigm. L&I argue that the decision maker should not accept the expert’s likelihood ratio without further consideration. This is agreed by all parties. In normal practice, there is often considerable and proper exploration in court of the basis for any probabilistic statement. We conclude that L&I argue against a practice that does not exist and which no one advocates. Further we conclude that the most informative summary of evidential weight is the likelihood ratio. We state that this is the summary that should be presented to a court in every scientific assessment of evidential weight with supporting information about how it was constructed and on what it was based

Criminal Justice and Suicide Outcomes with Indiana's Risk-Based Gun Seizure Law

This article examines the application and effectiveness of a 2006 Indiana law designed to prevent gun violence by authorizing police officers to separate firearms from persons who present imminent or future risk of injury to self or others, or display a propensity for violent or emotionally unstable conduct. A court hearing is held to determine ongoing risk in these cases; a judge decides whether to return the seized firearms or retain them for up to five years. The study examines the frequency of criminal arrest as well as suicide outcomes for 395 gun-removal actions in Indiana. Fourteen individuals (3.5%) died from suicide, seven (1.8%) using a firearm. The study population's annualized suicide rate was about 31 times higher than that of the general adult population in Indiana, demonstrating that the law is being applied to a population genuinely at high risk. By extrapolating information on the case fatality rate for different methods of suicide, we calculated that one life was saved for every 10 gun-removal actions, similar to results of a previous study in Connecticut. Perspectives from key stakeholders are also presented along with implications for gun policy reform and implementation