Expert system verification concerns in an operations environment

The Space Shuttle community is currently developing a number of knowledge-based tools, primarily expert systems, to support Space Shuttle operations. It is proposed that anticipating and responding to the requirements of the operations environment will contribute to a rapid and smooth transition of expert systems from development to operations, and that the requirements for verification are critical to this transition. The paper identifies the requirements of expert systems to be used for flight planning and support and compares them to those of existing procedural software used for flight planning and support. It then explores software engineering concepts and methodology that can be used to satisfy these requirements, to aid the transition from development to operations and to support the operations environment during the lifetime of expert systems. Many of these are similar to those used for procedural hardware

Energy, Obsolescence, and the Productivity Slowdown

The growth rate of output per worker in the U.S. declined sharply during the 1970's. A leading explanation of this phenomenon holds that the dramatic rise in energy prices during the 1970's caused a significant portion of the U.S. capital stock to become obsolete. This led to a decline in effective capital input which, in turn, caused a reduction in the reduction in the growth rate of output per worker. This paper examines a key prediction of this hypothesis. If there is a significant link between energy and capital obsolescence, it should be revealed in the market price of used capital: if rising energy costs did in fact render older, energy-inefficient capital obsolete, prospective buyers should have reduced the price that they were willing to pay for that capital. An examination of the market for used capital before and after the energy price shocks should thus reveal the presence and magnitude of the obsolescence effect. We have carried out this examination for four types of used machine tools and five types of construction equipment. We did not find a general reduction in the price of used equipment after the energy price shocks. Indeed, the price of used construction equipment - the more energy intensive of our two types of capital - tended to increase after 1973. We thus conclude that our data do not support the obsolescence explanation of the productivity of slowdown.

Forecasting using relative entropy

The paper describes a relative entropy procedure for imposing moment restrictions on simulated forecast distributions from a variety of models. Starting from an empirical forecast distribution for some variables of interest, the technique generates a new empirical distribution that satisfies a set of moment restrictions. The new distribution is chosen to be as close as possible to the original in the sense of minimizing the associated Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, or relative entropy. The authors illustrate the technique by using several examples that show how restrictions from other forecasts and from economic theory may be introduced into a model's forecasts.Forecasting

Fractal Properties of the Distribution of Earthquake Hypocenters

We investigate a recent suggestion that the spatial distribution of earthquake hypocenters makes a fractal set with a structure and fractal dimensionality close to those of the backbone of critical percolation clusters, by analyzing four different sets of data for the hypocenter distributions and calculating the dynamical properties of the geometrical distribution such as the spectral dimension $d_s$. We find that the value of $d_s$ is consistent with that of the backbone, thus supporting further the identification of the hypocenter distribution as having the structure of the percolation backbone.Comment: 11 pages, LaTeX, HLRZ 68/9

Subseasonal-to-interdecadal variability of the Australian monsoon over North Queensland

Daily rainfall occurrence and amount at 11 stations over North Queensland are examined for summers 1958–1998, using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Daily rainfall variability is described in terms of the occurrence of five discrete ‘weather states’, identified by the HMM. Three states are characterized respectively by very wet, moderately wet, and dry conditions at most stations; two states have enhanced rainfall along the coast and dry conditions inland. Each HMM rainfall state is associated with a distinct atmospheric circulation regime. The two wet states are accompanied by monsoonal circulation patterns with large-scale ascent, low-level inflow from the north-west, and a phase reversal with height; the dry state is characterized by circulation anomalies of the opposite sense. Two of the states show significant associations with midlatitude synoptic waves. Variability of the monsoon on time-scales from subseasonal to interdecadal is interpreted in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of the five HMM rainfall states. Large subseasonal variability is identified in terms of active and break phases, and a highly variable monsoon onset date. The occurrence of the very wet and dry states is somewhat modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation. On interannual time-scales, there are clear relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interdecadal monsoonal variability is characterized by stronger monsoons during the 1970s, and weaker monsoons plus an increased prevalence of drier states in the later part of the record. Stochastic simulations of daily rainfall occurrence and amount at the 11 stations are generated by introducing predictors based on large-scale precipitation from (a) reanalysis data, (b) an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) run with observed SST forcing and (c) antecedent June–August Pacific SST anomalies. The reanalysis large-scale precipitation yields relatively accurate station-level simulations of the interannual variability of daily rainfall amount and occurrence, with rainfall intensity less well simulated. At some stations, interannual variations in 10-day dry-spell frequency are also simulated reasonably well. The interannual quality of the simulations is markedly degraded when the GCM simulations are used as inputs, while antecedent Pacific SST inputs yield an anomaly correlation skill comparable to that of the GCM

Subseasonal-to-interdecadal variability of the Australian monsoon over North Queensland

Daily rainfall occurrence and amount at 11 stations over North Queensland are examined for summers 1958–1998, using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Daily rainfall variability is described in terms of the occurrence of five discrete ‘weather states’, identified by the HMM. Three states are characterized respectively by very wet, moderately wet, and dry conditions at most stations; two states have enhanced rainfall along the coast and dry conditions inland. Each HMM rainfall state is associated with a distinct atmospheric circulation regime. The two wet states are accompanied by monsoonal circulation patterns with large-scale ascent, low-level inflow from the north-west, and a phase reversal with height; the dry state is characterized by circulation anomalies of the opposite sense. Two of the states show significant associations with midlatitude synoptic waves. Variability of the monsoon on time-scales from subseasonal to interdecadal is interpreted in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of the five HMM rainfall states. Large subseasonal variability is identified in terms of active and break phases, and a highly variable monsoon onset date. The occurrence of the very wet and dry states is somewhat modulated by the Madden–Julian oscillation. On interannual time-scales, there are clear relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interdecadal monsoonal variability is characterized by stronger monsoons during the 1970s, and weaker monsoons plus an increased prevalence of drier states in the later part of the record. Stochastic simulations of daily rainfall occurrence and amount at the 11 stations are generated by introducing predictors based on large-scale precipitation from (a) reanalysis data, (b) an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) run with observed SST forcing and (c) antecedent June–August Pacific SST anomalies. The reanalysis large-scale precipitation yields relatively accurate station-level simulations of the interannual variability of daily rainfall amount and occurrence, with rainfall intensity less well simulated. At some stations, interannual variations in 10-day dry-spell frequency are also simulated reasonably well. The interannual quality of the simulations is markedly degraded when the GCM simulations are used as inputs, while antecedent Pacific SST inputs yield an anomaly correlation skill comparable to that of the GCM

Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking at Infinite Momentum without P+ Zero-Modes

The nonrelativistic interpretation of quantum field theory achieved by quantization in an infinite momentum frame is spoiled by the inclusion of a mode of the field carrying p+=0. We therefore explore the viability of doing without such a mode in the context of spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB), where its presence would seem to be most needed. We show that the physics of SSB in scalar quantum field theory in 1+1 space-time dimensions is accurately described without a zero-mode.Comment: LaTeX, 8 pages, 3 eps figure

Starlight Demonstration of the Dragonfly Instrument: an Integrated Photonic Pupil Remapping Interferometer for High Contrast Imaging

In the two decades since the first extra-solar planet was discovered, the detection and characterization of extra-solar planets has become one of the key endeavors in all of modern science. Recently direct detection techniques such as interferometry or coronography have received growing attention because they reveal the population of exoplanets inaccessible to Doppler or transit techniques, and moreover they allow the faint signal from the planet itself to be investigated. Next-generation stellar interferometers are increasingly incorporating photonic technologies due to the increase in fidelity of the data generated. Here, we report the design, construction and commissioning of a new high contrast imager; the integrated pupil-remapping interferometer; an instrument we expect will find application in the detection of young faint companions in the nearest star-forming regions. The laboratory characterisation of the instrument demonstrated high visibility fringes on all interferometer baselines in addition to stable closure phase signals. We also report the first successful on-sky experiments with the prototype instrument at the 3.9-m Anglo-Australian Telescope. Performance metrics recovered were consistent with ideal device behaviour after accounting for expected levels of decoherence and signal loss from the uncompensated seeing. The prospect of complete Fourier-coverage coupled with the current performance metrics means that this photonically-enhanced instrument is well positioned to contribute to the science of high contrast companions.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, accepted to Mon. Not. of Roy. Ast. Soc., 201

Performance of cages as large animal-exclusion devices in the deep sea

Sedimentary, deep-sea communities include megafaunal animals (e.g., sea cucumbers, brittle stars, crabs) and demersal fishes, collectively termed the large, motile epifauna (LME). Individuals of the LME are common, and their biomass approximates that of the macrofauna. Based on analogies with shallow-water animals, they are likely to be sources of mortality for the infauna and to create spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the community. Given present theories of deep-sea community organization, such effects could be important. Unfortunately, this hypothesis has not been tested because of the difficulty of conducting experiments in the deep sea and because tools for manipulating the LME have not been developed. We studied the suitability of exclusion cages for this purpose at 780 m depth in San Diego Trough. We placed 16 cages of two mesh sizes for 4.5 months over regions of the seafloor that appeared free of LME. Time-lapse photographs of a cage and a control plot coupled with observations of all cages at the end of the experiment indicated that small (1.27-cm × 1.27-cm square)-mesh cages were effective at excluding LME. Further, the cages were essentially free of cage artifacts that have been reported in shallow-water studies. Large, mobile and disruptive animals (e.g., fishes, crabs) did not establish long-term residence adjacent to or on the cages. Bio-fouling slightly reduced the open surface area of the cage mesh, potentially reducing flow through the cage, but the composition of surface sediments in terms of organic C and N, phytoplankton-derived pigments, and grain size was indistinguishable between cages and control areas. Activities of excess 234Th were significantly higher (average = 37%) inside of small-mesh cages, which might suggest enhanced particulate deposition inside cages. However, this measurement was an artifact of experimental manipulation. Particles that accumulated on the cage during the experiment were dislodged and settled to the seafloor when the cage was opened just prior to sampling. These particles would have been highly enriched in 234Th, and their inclusion in core samples artificially inflated the calculated sediment accumulation rates inside cages. Therefore, the cages performed well; they excluded the targeted LME without causing artifacts and thus should be useful for experimental study of a group of animals that may have substantial impact on the structure and organization of deep-sea communities