Growth, convergence and public investment : a bayesian model averaging approach [WP]

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also, we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. The second objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robust to model speci¯cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.L'objectiu d'aquest estudi és doble. Primer, estudiem els factors determinants del creixement econòmic entre un ampli ventall de possibles variables per a les províncies espanyoles. Entre aquests determinant s'inclouen difrents tipus de capital privat, públic i humà. A més, s'analitza si les províncies espanyoles han convergit en termes econòmics. El segon objectiu és l'obtenció d¿estimacions, transversals i amb dades de panell, robustes a l'especificació del model utilitzant una metodologia bayesiana, la qual construeix els paràmetres estimats com una mitja ponderada dels estimadors lineals de totes les possibles combinacions de models donades les variables tingudes en compte. La ponderació de cada paràmetre estimat bé donada per la probabilitat a posteriori de cada model

The Frisch Elasticity in the Mercosur Countries: A Pseudo-Panel Approach

This paper provides estimates for the Mercosur countries of the Frisch elasticity – i.e., the elasticity of substitution between worked hours and real wages holding constant the marginal utility of wealth. We find a strong heterogeneity, with estimated elasticities ranging from 12.8 in Argentina to -13.1 in Paraguay. Brazil and Uruguay are in between, both with negative values of -1.9 and -1.4, respectively. We argue that the existence of severe liquidity constraints is the main reason behind the negative estimates found in Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The heterogeneity of these estimates is the outcome of differences in many relevant economic dimensions – ranging from sectorial specialization to welfare state provisions and labor market specificities – all of them crucially affecting the socioeconomic situation of individuals. The diversity of Frisch elasticities calls for the development of a cross-country (rather than a within-country) policy approach, since they crucially affect the dynamics of the business cycle and business cycle synchronization is a step prior to the design of macro-convergence policies in the Mercosur context.Frisch elasticity, labor supply, liquidity constraints, Mercosur, life-cycle models, pseudo-panel (synthetic panel)

La campaña negativa en la elección presidencial de 2006 en México. Marketing político y criminología mediática unidos

La llamada campaña de contraste, que se fraguó contra el candidato presidencial Andrés Manuel López Obrador en la campaña electoral del 2006 en México, rompió los límites formales del marketing político y mostró el alcance real de este concepto y su incapacidad de funcionamiento cuando se topa con actores y acciones no consideradas. Este trabajo busca ubicar estas limitantes y exponer sus características; después propone la aplicación del concepto de criminología mediática para cubrir estos vacíos. Se pretende demostrar que la propuesta de Raúl Zaffaroni parece ser una vía, si no alterna, sí complementaria, para el análisis de los fenómenos de comunicación política que, en el contexto de una mayor competencia electoral, presentan matices distintos y más complejos

Don't Ask Me If You Will Not Listen: The Dilemma of Participative Decision Making.

We study the effect of participative decision making in an experimental principalagent game, where the principal can consult the agent’s preferred option regarding the task to be undertaken in the final stage of the game. We show that consulting the agent was beneficial to principals as long as they followed the agent’s choice. Ignoring the agent’s choice was detrimental to the principal as it engendered negative emotions and low levels of transfers. Nevertheless, the majority of principals were reluctant to change their mind and adopt the agent’s proposal. Our results suggest that the ability to change one’s own mind is an important dimension of managerial success.organizational behavior, participative decision making, principal-agent model

Thin film instability with thermal noise

We study the effects of stochastic thermal fluctuations on the instability of the free surface of a flat liquid film upon a solid substrate. These fluctuations are represented as a standard Brownian motion that can be added to the deterministic equation for the film thickness within the lubrication approximation. Here, we consider that while the noise term is white in time, it is coloured in space. This allows for the introduction of a finite correlation length in the description of the randomized intermolecular interaction. Together with the expected spatial periodicity of the flow, we find a dimensionless parameter, $\beta$, that accounts for the relative importance of the spatial correlation. We perform here the linear stability analysis (LSA) of the film under the influence of both terms, and find the corresponding power spectra for the amplitudes of the normal modes of the instability. We compare this theoretical result with the numerical simulations of the complete non-linear problem, and find a good agreement for early times. For late times, we find that the stochastic LSA predictions on the dominant wavelength remains basically valid. We also use the theoretical spectra to fit experimental data from a nanometric melted copper film, and find the corresponding times of the evolution as well as the values of the parameter, $\beta$