The Estimation of Prewar GNP: Methodology and New Evidence

The paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar GNP, taps previously unused data sources, and develops new estimates for the periods 1869-08 and 1869-28. Primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation, communications, and construction sectors, and estimates of the consumer price index. New measures of real GNP, nominal GNP, and the GNP deflator are developed. The new estimates of real GNP are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional Kuznets-Kendrick aeries but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others. The new estimates of the GNP deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than in the postwar period.

The Estimation of Prewar GNP Volatility, 1869-1938

New evidence is provided to assess the recent controversy regarding the volatility of real economic activity before 1929 relative to the period since World War II. Some recent work claims that the longstanding stylized fact of greater prewar volatility is "spurious". In contrast, this paper reconfirms the greater amplitude of business fluctuations prior to the Great Depression. The basic technique is the regression method, which estimates equations for real GNP during 1909-38, with one or more explanatory variables for components of GNP, and then uses the estimated coefficients to "backcast" real GNP or the period 1869-1908. The paper contains an extensive examination of the sensitivity of these regression indexes to alternative dependent variables, sample periods, detrending methods, and the inclusion of alternative explanatory variables. Particular attention is paid to the conflicting evidence regarding the amplitude of cycles in construction activity between 1870 and 1890. The resulting prewar/postwar volatility ratios, for 1869-1928 as compared to 1950-1980, range from 1.43 to 2.16. The paper concludes by suggesting that this range of volatility ratios is more likely to understate than overstate the prewar/postwar volatility ratio.

Pasolini as Jew:Between Israel and Europe

Pasolini’s first turn beyond Europe can be dated to three lengthy journeys to Asia and Africa undertaken between December 1960 and February 1963. The places he visited quickly bring to mind a long series of subsequent projects – poems, screenplays, films realized or unfinished – from throughout the remaining fifteen years of Pasolini’s life, during which he pitched himself in a wholly new light as a poet of the Third World

Tempering glass spheres and related topics

The generation of permanent STRESSES in glass spheres by rapid cooling is described, starting with transient STRESSES that arise during the tempering process. The Utility of tempered glass spheres is briefly considered in the context of the permanent STRESSES produced. Two possible effects of transient STRESSES are: the risk of in-process breakage as a result of excessive tension in an already cold surface, and bubble formation in - or other distortion of - spheres as a result of high hydrostatic tension in their interior while that is still hot and fluid. In that connection, the distortion of the edges of tempered glass plates is also briefly considered. The mathematical model of tempering spheres, on which this discussion is based, is outlined in an appendix

A new method of observing weak extended x-ray sources with RHESSI

We present a new method, fan-beam modulation, for observing weak extended x-ray sources with the Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). This space-based solar x-ray and gamma-ray telescope has much greater sensitivity than previous experiments in the 3-25 keV range, but is normally not well suited to detecting extended sources since their signal is not modulated by RHESSI's rotating grids. When the spacecraft is offpointed from the target source, however, the fan-beam modulation time-modulates the transmission by shadowing resulting from exploiting the finite thickness of the grids. In this paper we detail how the technique is implemented and verify its consistency with sources with clear known signals that have occurred during RHESSI offpointing: microflares and the Crab Nebula. In both cases the results are consistent with previous and complementary measurements. Preliminary work indicates that this new technique allows RHESSI to observe the integrated hard x-ray spectrum of weak extended sources on the quiet Sun.Comment: Publishe

Precision Power and Its Application to the Selection of Regression Sample Sizes

Because of contradictions among the various methods, sample size selection in multiple regression has been problematic. For example, how does one reconcile the difference between a 15: 1 subject-to-variable rule and a 30: 1 rule? The purpose of this paper is to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods of selecting sample sizes in regression. A discussion of the importance of cross-validity to prediction studies will be followed by descriptions of the three categories of sample size methods: cross-validation approaches, rules-of-thumb, and statistical power methods. A rationale will then be developed for the application of precision power to multiple regression, leading to the presentation, through multiple examples, of the precision power method for sample size selection in prediction studies

Reforming the Unbargained Contract: Avoiding Bondholder Claims for Surprise Par Calls

Until the last couple of decades, interest rates remained relatively stable, thus providing little incentive for corporate borrowers to seek novel ways of redeeming purportedly non-callable bonds at par. But with the advent of junk bonds and periods of great interest rate volatility, issuers have been provided with powerful incentives to explore the relatively uncharted waters of par calls. This Article examines the authority for and legality of such par calls and ultimately proposes a redefinition of the issuer-bondholder relationship. This redefinition accounts for the realities of the marketplace and should lead a return to more settled expectations in both issuer and investor camps. Along the way, the redefinition suggests a principled framework within which to litigate disputes when they arise, without resort to artificial constructs based on bargaining that does not actually take place or unsatisfactory contort theories

On two 10th order mock theta identities

We give short proofs of conjectural identities due to Gordon and McIntosh involving two 10th order mock theta functions.Comment: 5 pages, to appear in the Ramanujan Journa

Referencing Sources of Molecular Spectroscopic Data in the Era of Data Science: Application to the HITRAN and AMBDAS Databases

The application described has been designed to create bibliographic entries in large databases with diverse sources automatically, which reduces both the frequency of mistakes and the workload for the administrators. This new system uniquely identifies each reference from its digital object identifier (DOI) and retrieves the corresponding bibliographic information from any of several online services, including the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data Systems (ADS) and CrossRef APIs. Once parsed into a relational database, the software is able to produce bibliographies in any of several formats, including HTML and BibTeX, for use on websites or printed articles. The application is provided free-of-charge for general use by any scientific database. The power of this application is demonstrated when used to populate reference data for the HITRAN and AMBDAS databases as test cases. HITRAN contains data that is provided by researchers and collaborators throughout the spectroscopic community. These contributors are accredited for their contributions through the bibliography produced alongside the data returned by an online search in HITRAN. Prior to the work presented here, HITRAN and AMBDAS created these bibliographies manually, which is a tedious, time-consuming and error-prone process. The complete code for the new referencing system can be found at \url{https://github.com/hitranonline/refs}.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, already published online at https://doi.org/10.3390/atoms802001