The global warming potential misrepresents the physics of global warming thereby misleading policy makers: November 2020

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is widely used to compare the climate change effects of various greenhouse gases. Although GWP has an established role in international climate agreements, GWP does not describe any specific identifiable impact of greenhouse gas emissions on climate. It is argued here that GWP is unphysical, unintuitive, arbitrary, ignores the time dependence of emission sources, and is in some cases misleading. Therefore it has no place in describing the effects of climate change mitigation strategies beyond a 20 year horizon. This paper argues for the broader use of global mean temperature change trajectories in educating policy makers and the public about greenhouse gas control, thereby making climate policy discussions more scientifically rigorous while demystifying the criteria upon which policy choices are made. Examples provided include multiyear emissions, venting versus flaring of natural gas, electric power generated by natural gas versus coal, European gas supply by LNG versus pipeline, European electric power by imported gas versus coal, and livestock reduction

EPA methane emission controls, Obama vs Trump vs Biden: what needs to be fixed and what should be left alone

On 13 August 2020, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promulgated its final rule amending the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for the Oil and Natural Gas Sector. Both adherents and detractors of President Donald J. Trump saw the new rule as contributing to the President’s deregulatory agenda, taking an important step toward American dominance in fossil fuels (desirable or not), and winning yet another battle in the war on the environmental protection legacy of President Barack Obama. This simple story line is compelling, but when the details are examined, it is found that the changes were in some ways more important, and in other ways less important than advertised by supporters and opponents. Moreover, some of the changes have damaged positions Trump championed, while others have the potential to substantially improve the environmental performance of the oil and gas industry. Most importantly, some major sources of methane emissions have been inadequately dealt with across both administrations. Therefore the Biden administration EPA, in re-examining NSPS, should take care to discard the mistakes made by the Trump administration, retain the improvements, and move forward on a number of new fronts. Topics explored include redundancy of methane and volatile organic compound leak detection, regulation of older and low production facilities, abandoned wells, pneumatic controllers, oil storage tanks, routine flaring, malfunctioning and unlit flares, gathering pipelines, and EPA certification of new methane emission detection technology. All results and any errors in this report are the responsibility of the author

Fracture-controlled gas hydrate systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico

High-angle, open mode fractures control the presence of natural gas hydrate in water-saturated clays at the Keathley Canyon 151 site in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which was investigated for gas hydrates as part of the Chevron Joint Industry Project drilling in 2005. We analyze logging-while-drilling resistivity images and infer that gas hydrate accumulated in situ in two modes: filling fractures and saturating permeable beds. High-angle hydrate-filled fractures are the most common mode for gas hydrate occurrence at this site, with most of these fractures dipping at angles of more than 40° and occurring between 220 and 300 m below seafloor. These fractures all strike approximately N–S, which agrees with the 165°SE–345°NW maximum horizontal stress direction determined from borehole breakouts and which aligns with local bathymetric contours. In one interval of hydrate-filled fractures, porosity increases with increasing hydrate saturation. We suggest that high pore pressure may have dilated sediments during fracture formation, causing this increase in porosity. Furthermore, the formation of gas hydrate may have heaved fractures apart, also increasing the formation porosity in this interval

The Influence of Early Respondents: Information Cascade Effects in Online Event Scheduling

Sequential group decision-making processes, such as online event scheduling, can be subject to social influence if the decisions involve individuals’ subjective preferences and values. Indeed, prior work has shown that scheduling polls that allow respondents to see others’ answers are more likely to succeed than polls that hide other responses, suggesting the impact of social influence and coordination. In this paper, we investigate whether this difference is due to information cascade effects in which later respondents adopt the decisions of earlier respondents. Analyzing more than 1.3 million Doodle polls, we found evidence that cascading effects take place during event scheduling, and in particular, that early respondents have a larger influence on the outcome of a poll than people who come late. Drawing on simulations of an event scheduling model, we compare possible interventions to mitigate this bias and show that we can optimize the success of polls by hiding the responses of a small percentage of low availability respondents.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134703/1/Romero et al 2017 (WSDM).pd

Cross-over behaviour in a communication network

We address the problem of message transfer in a communication network. The network consists of nodes and links, with the nodes lying on a two dimensional lattice. Each node has connections with its nearest neighbours, whereas some special nodes, which are designated as hubs, have connections to all the sites within a certain area of influence. The degree distribution for this network is bimodal in nature and has finite variance. The distribution of travel times between two sites situated at a fixed distance on this lattice shows fat fractal behaviour as a function of hub-density. If extra assortative connections are now introduced between the hubs so that each hub is connected to two or three other hubs, the distribution crosses over to power-law behaviour. Cross-over behaviour is also seen if end-to-end short cuts are introduced between hubs whose areas of influence overlap, but this is much milder in nature. In yet another information transmission process, namely, the spread of infection on the network with assortative connections, we again observed cross-over behaviour of another type, viz. from one power-law to another for the threshold values of disease transmission probability. Our results are relevant for the understanding of the role of network topology in information spread processes.Comment: 12 figure

What Do Computer Scientists Tweet? Analyzing the Link-Sharing Practice on Twitter

Twitter communication has permeated every sphere of society. To highlight and share small pieces of information with possibly vast audiences or small circles of the interested has some value in almost any aspect of social life. But what is the value exactly for a scientific field? We perform a comprehensive study of computer scientists using Twitter and their tweeting behavior concerning the sharing of web links. Discerning the domains, hosts and individual web pages being tweeted and the differences between computer scientists and a Twitter sample enables us to look in depth at the Twitter-based information sharing practices of a scientific community. Additionally, we aim at providing a deeper understanding of the role and impact of altmetrics in computer science and give a glance at the publications mentioned on Twitter that are most relevant for the computer science community. Our results show a link sharing culture that concentrates more heavily on public and professional quality information than the Twitter sample does. The results also show a broad variety in linked sources and especially in linked publications with some publications clearly related to community-specific interests of computer scientists, while others with a strong relation to attention mechanisms in social media. This refers to the observation that Twitter is a hybrid form of social media between an information service and a social network service. Overall the computer scientists’ style of usage seems to be more on the information-oriented side and to some degree also on professional usage. Therefore, altmetrics are of considerable use in analyzing computer science

Claudin-containing exosomes in the peripheral circulation of women with ovarian cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The absence of highly sensitive and specific serum biomarkers makes mass screening for ovarian cancer impossible. The claudin proteins are frequently overexpressed in ovarian cancers, but their potential as prognostic, diagnostic, or detection markers remains unclear. Here, we have explored the possible use of these proteins as screening biomarkers for ovarian cancer detection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Claudin protein shedding from cells was examined by immunoblotting of conditioned culture media. The presence of claudins in exosomes released from ovarian cancer cells was demonstrated by sucrose gradient separation and immunogold electron microscopy experiments. Claudin-4-containing exosomes in the plasma of ovarian cancer patients were evaluated in a pilot panel of 63 ovarian cancer patients and 50 healthy volunteers. The CA125 marker was also assessed in these samples and compared with claudin-4 positivity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We show that full-length claudins can be shed from ovarian cancer cells in culture and found in the media as part of small lipid vesicles known as exosomes. Moreover, 32 of 63 plasma samples from ovarian cancer patients exhibited the presence of claudin-4-containing exosomes. In contrast, only one of 50 samples from individuals without cancer exhibited claudin-4-positive exosomes. In our small panel, at a specificity of 98%, the claudin-4 and CA125 tests had sensitivities of 51% and 71%, respectively. The two tests did not appear to be independent and were strongly correlated.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our work shows for the first time that claudin-4 can be released from ovarian cancer cells and can be detected in the peripheral circulation of ovarian cancer patients. The development of sensitive assays for the detection of claudin-4 in blood will be crucial in determining whether this approach can be useful, alone or in combination with other screening methods, for the detection of ovarian cancer.</p

A many-analysts approach to the relation between religiosity and well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N=10,535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β=0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β=0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates

A Many-analysts Approach to the Relation Between Religiosity and Well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N = 10, 535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β = 0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β = 0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates