Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme - ERAMMP Report-57: Image Resolution Testing for Soil Erosion and Damage Features

Maintaining healthy soils in Wales is important in order to ensure the sustainable management of natural resources under the environment act. Monitoring of soils in Wales is conducted in order to assess the state and change of soils and forms part of the state of natural resources reporting cycle (SoNaRR), quantify the impact of Glastir on soil health and contribute to a range of other reporting requirements. Soil monitoring by ERAMMP is primarily based on structured sampling of topsoil but has also used aerial photography for peat condition and modelling. This report details work that examines the potential use of remote sensing for assessing the extent of soil erosion and damage (SED), and landsliding from space. The objective was to test different remote sensing imagery data sources, e.g. sentinel (~10m) and planet data (~3m) against high resolution APGB aerial imagery (~0.25m, by Bluesky International Limited), to determine if the resolution of the imagery is acceptable to replace aerial photographs for identifying features. The report summarises two tests of the data, one on the extent of soil erosion and damage and the other on coastal erosion and landslides

Macromolecular theory of solvation and structure in mixtures of colloids and polymers

The structural and thermodynamic properties of mixtures of colloidal spheres and non-adsorbing polymer chains are studied within a novel general two-component macromolecular liquid state approach applicable for all size asymmetry ratios. The dilute limits, when one of the components is at infinite dilution but the other concentrated, are presented and compared to field theory and models which replace polymer coils with spheres. Whereas the derived analytical results compare well, qualitatively and quantitatively, with mean-field scaling laws where available, important differences from ``effective sphere'' approaches are found for large polymer sizes or semi-dilute concentrations.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figure

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems

A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19

DATA AVAILABILITY : All data and study material are provided either in the Supplementary information or through the two online repositories (OSF and Tableau Public, both accessible via https://psyarxiv.com/58udn). No code was used for analyses in this work.Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process. In April 2020, an influential paper proposed 19 policy recommendations (‘claims’) detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms ‘physical distancing’ and ‘social distancing’. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization.The National Science Foundation; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education); Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education); the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation | Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (National Council for Scientific and Technological Development); National Science Foundation grants; the European Research Council; the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.http://www.nature.com/naturehj2024Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)Non

The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set

Background Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy

Duration of Early Vocalisations

The duration of three infants’ vocalisations were examined during a six-month longitudinal study. In contrast to most other infant research, this study included in its analysis all vocalisations including those deemed vegetative or those having nonmodal voice quality. All three infants produced vocalisations which decreased in duration in the initial months. However between the 3rd and 5th month a significant increase (p<0.001) in the duration of vocalisations was found (from mean 207ms to 431ms). When vocalisations were analysed using perceptual voice quality categories, all were found to have significant differences (p<0.05) in duration relative to modal voice. Nonmodal voice qualities showed initial decreases in duration before increasing in duration in later months. In contrast those vocalisations produced using modal voice showed a positive linear trend and had the greatest linear rate of change across the study. These findings highlight the importance of including a wide variety of infant vocalisations including those with nonmodal voice quality in infant linguistic developmental studies

Development of temporal and distance parameters of gait in normal children

Temporal and distance parameters of 33 normal children were obtained from instrumented gait analysis prospectively over five consecutive years. The parameters were normalised to minimise the confounding effects of increasing height and leg length. Rank correlations were performed on normalised speed, normalised stride length, normalised cadence and normalised walk ratio across consecutive pairs of years to examine the ranking of these parameters for an individual child over time. Consistent trends of increasing rank correlation were observed in normalised stride length and normalised walk ratio suggesting that individual children were continuing to adjust these gait parameters towards their own characteristic position within the normal range. Consistent trends were not observed in the rank correlations for normalised speed and normalised cadence. These findings support the concept that individual children predominantly adjusted their cadence to effect changes in speed, while the development of stride length was dictated by other factors specific to the individual child. Rank correlation coefficients for walk ratio between consecutive years increased from the ages of 7-11 years of age and hence walk ratio appears be a feature of gait that matures beyond the age of 7 years. This accords with the proposal that it is an invariant parameter for an individual

Sagittal joint kinematics, moments, and powers are predominantly characterised by speed of progression, not age, in normal children

Twenty-six healthy 7-year-old children were enrolled in a 5-year longitudinal study to examine the importance of age and speed in the characterization of sagittal joint angles, moments, and powers. In 740 gait trials, children walking at self-selected speeds were examined on the basis of age and normalized speed [speed/(height xg)1/2]. The kinematics and kinetics in these children were characterized predominantly by normalized speed of progression and not age. The clinical relevance of these findings is that normalized speed of walking, rather than age, should be considered when comparing normal with pathologic gait

Reliability and validity of the Visual Gait Assessment Scale for children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy when used by experienced and inexperienced observers

This study investigated the reliability and validity of the Visual Gait Assessment Scale when used by experienced and inexperienced observers. Four experienced and six inexperienced observers viewed videotaped footage of four children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy on two separate occasions. Validity of the Scale was obtained by comparison with three-dimensional gait analysis (3DGA). The experienced observers generally had higher inter-observer and intra-observer reliability than the inexperienced observers. Both groups showed higher agreement for assessments made at the ankle and foot than at the knee and hip. The experienced observers had slightly higher agreement with 3DGA than the inexperienced observers. The inexperienced observers showed a learning effect and had higher inter-observer agreement and higher agreement with 3DGA in the second assessment of the videotapes. This scale can be used by inexperienced observers but is limited to observations in the sagittal plane and by poor reliability at the knee and hip for experienced and inexperienced observers