Pricing Rainfall Based Futures Using Genetic Programming

Rainfall derivatives are in their infancy since starting trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) since 2011. Being a relatively new class of financial instruments there is no generally recognised pricing framework used within the literature. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for pricing contracts using Genetic Programming (GP). Our novel framework requires generating a risk-neutral density of our rainfall predictions generated by GP supported by Markov chain Monte Carlo and Esscher transform. Moreover, instead of having a single rainfall model for all contracts, we propose having a separate rainfall model for each contract. We compare our novel framework with and without our proposed contract-specific models for pricing against the pricing performance of the two most commonly used methods, namely Markov chain extended with rainfall prediction (MCRP), and burn analysis (BA) across contracts available on the CME. Our goal is twofold, (i) to show that by improving the predictive accuracy of the rainfall process, the accuracy of pricing also increases. (ii) contract-specific models can further improve the pricing accuracy. Results show that both of the above goals are met, as GP is capable of pricing rainfall futures contracts closer to the CME than MCRP and BA. This shows that our novel framework for using GP is successful, which is a significant step forward in pricing rainfall derivatives

Origins, diversity and naturalization of Eucalyptus globulus (Myrtaceae) in California

Eucalyptus globulus is native to southeastern Australia, including the island of Tasmania, but is one of the most widely grown hardwood forestry species in the world and is naturalized on several continents. We studied its naturalization in California, where the species has been planted for over 150 years. We sampled 70 E. globulus trees from 53 locations spanning the entire range of the species in California to quantify the genetic variation present and test whether particular genotypes or native origin affect variation in naturalization among locations. Diversity and native affinities were determined based on six nuclear microsatellite markers and sequences from a highly variable chloroplast DNA region (JLA+). The likely native origin was determined by DNA-based comparison with a range-wide native stand collection. Most of California’s E. globulus originated from eastern Tasmania. Genetic diversity in California is greatly reduced compared with that of the native Australian population, with a single chloroplast haplotype occurring in 66% of the Californian samples. Throughout California, the degree of E. globulus naturalization varies widely but was not associated with genotype or native origin of the trees, arguing that factors such as local climate and disturbance are more important than pre-introduction evolutionary history

Timed inhibition of CDC7 increases CRISPR-Cas9 mediated templated repair.

Repair of double strand DNA breaks (DSBs) can result in gene disruption or gene modification via homology directed repair (HDR) from donor DNA. Altering cellular responses to DSBs may rebalance editing outcomes towards HDR and away from other repair outcomes. Here, we utilize a pooled CRISPR screen to define host cell involvement in HDR between a Cas9 DSB and a plasmid double stranded donor DNA (dsDonor). We find that the Fanconi Anemia (FA) pathway is required for dsDonor HDR and that other genes act to repress HDR. Small molecule inhibition of one of these repressors, CDC7, by XL413 and other inhibitors increases the efficiency of HDR by up to 3.5 fold in many contexts, including primary T cells. XL413 stimulates HDR during a reversible slowing of S-phase that is unexplored for Cas9-induced HDR. We anticipate that XL413 and other such rationally developed inhibitors will be useful tools for gene modification

Comparative maturation of cynomolgus monkey oocytes in vivo and in vitro

BACKGROUND: In vitro maturation (IVM) of oocytes followed by fertilization in vitro (IVF) and embryo transfer offers an alternative to conventional IVF treatment that minimises drug administration and avoids ovarian hyperstimulation. However, the technique is less efficient than maturation in vivo. In the present study, a non-human primate model was used to address the hypothesis that the number of oocytes is increased and their nuclear and cytoplasmic maturity after IVM are improved when maturation is initiated in vivo by priming with hCG. METHODS: Young, adult cynomolgus monkeys were given recombinant human (rh) gonadotropins to stimulate the development of multiple follicles, and oocytes were aspirated 0, 12, 24, or 36 h after injection of an ovulatory dose of rhCG. The nuclear status of oocytes was determined at the time of recovery and after culture for a total elapsed time of 40–44 hours after hCG. RESULTS: Priming with hCG significantly increased the number of oocytes harvested, especially after delaying aspiration for 24 h or longer. Nuclear maturation after the full period in culture was also enhanced by priming: 71.5, 83.6, and 94.6% of oocytes collected at 0, 12, and 24 h hCG had progressed to MII by the end of the culture period, compared to 87.8% of oocytes that were retrieved at 36 h. A large proportion of oocytes reaching the MII stage had either or both abnormal spindles (>40%) and misaligned chromosomes (>60%), judging by immunofluorescence microscopy, but these abnormalities were independent of culture time. The mitochondria were evenly distributed throughout the cytoplasm at all stages of maturation. Importantly, there was no microscopic evidence that the duration of culture had any injurious effects on the cells. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the evidence supports this non-human primate as a model for human IVM and the practice of priming with hCG to promote developmental potential

Pre-ejection period by radial artery tonometry supplements echo doppler findings during biventricular pacemaker optimization

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Biventricular (Biv) pacemaker echo optimization has been shown to improve cardiac output however is not routinely used due to its complexity. We investigated the role of a simple method involving computerized pre-ejection time (PEP) assessment by radial artery tonometry in guiding Biv pacemaker optimization.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Blinded echo and radial artery tonometry were performed simultaneously in 37 patients, age 69.1 ± 12.8 years, left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF) 33 ± 10%, during Biv pacemaker optimization. Effect of optimization on echo derived velocity time integral (VTI), ejection time (ET), myocardial performance index (MPI), radial artery tonometry derived PEP and echo-radial artery tonometry derived PEP/VTI and PEP/ET indices was evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significant improvement post optimization was achieved in LV ET (286.9 ± 37.3 to 299 ± 34.6 ms, p < 0.001), LV VTI (15.9 ± 4.8 cm to 18.4 ± 5.1 cm, p < 0.001) and MPI (0.57 ± 0.2 to 0.45 ± 0.13, p < 0.001) and in PEP (246.7 ± 36.1 ms to 234.7 ± 35.5 ms, p = 0.003), PEP/ET (0.88 ± 0.21 to 0.79 ± 0.17, p < 0.001), and PEP/VTI (17.3 ± 7 to 13.78 ± 4.7, p < 0.001). The correlation between comprehensive echo Doppler and radial artery tonometry-PEP guided optimal atrioventricular delay (AVD) and optimal interventricular delay (VVD) was 0.75 (p < 0.001) and 0.69 (p < 0.001) respectively. In 29 patients with follow up assessment, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class reduced from 2.5 ± 0.8 to 2.0 ± 0.9 (p = 0.004) at 1.8 ± 1.4 months.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>An acute shortening of PEP by radial artery tonometry occurs post Biv pacemaker optimization and correlates with improvement in hemodynamics by echo Doppler and may provide a cost-efficient approach to assist with Biv pacemaker echo optimization.</p

Morphometric characteristics of basal cell carcinoma peritumoral stroma varies among basal cell carcinoma subtypes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The role that the peritumoral stroma plays in the growth of tumours is currently poorly understood. In this manuscript the morphometric characteristics of basal cell carcinoma subtypes and their associated peritumoral stromas are presented.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ninety eight digitized basal cell carcinoma histology slides were categorized as infiltrative, nodular, or superficial subtypes, and were analysed using a combination of manual and computer-assisted approaches. The morphometric characteristics of the tumour nests and their associated peritumoral stroma were quantified, and the presence of a marked immune reaction or elastosis was noted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The tumour to stroma ratio was different among each tumour subtype. Elastosis was identified in a greater proportion of the infiltrative tumours.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Quantitative differences exist between the peritumoral stroma of basal cell carcinoma subtypes. Future work exploring the relation between these morphometric differences and biochemical variations in peritumoral stroma may further our understanding of the biology of carcinoma development.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Not applicable.</p

Higher Expression of CCL2, CCL4, CCL5, CCL21, and CXCL8 Chemokines in the Skin Associated with Parasite Density in Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis

Several previous studies correlated immunopathological aspects of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) with tissue parasite load and/or the clinical status of the disease. Recently, different aspects of the immune response in Leishmania-infected dogs have been studied, particularly the profile of cytokines in distinct compartments. However, the role of chemokines in disease progression or parasite burdens of the visceralising species represents an important approach for understanding immunopathology in CVL. We found an increase in inflammatory infiltrate, which was mainly composed of mononuclear cells, in the skin of animals presenting severe forms of CVL and high parasite density. Our data also demonstrated that enhanced parasite density is positively correlated with the expression of CCL2, CCL4, CCL5, CCL21, and CXCL8. In contrast, there was a negative correlation between parasite density and CCL24 expression. These findings represent an advance in the knowledge of the involvement of skin inflammatory infiltrates in CVL and the systemic consequences and may contribute to developing a rational strategy for the design of new and more efficient prophylactic tools and immunological therapies against CVL

Rye kernel breakfast increases satiety in the afternoon - an effect of food structure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The structure of whole grain cereals is maintained to varying degrees during processing and preparation of foods. Food structure can influence metabolism, including perceived hunger and satiety. A diet that enhances satiety per calorie may help to prevent excessive calorie intake. The objective of this work was to compare subjective appetite ratings after consumption of intact and milled rye kernels.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two studies were performed using a randomized, cross-over design. Ratings for appetite (hunger, satiety and desire to eat) were registered during an 8-h period after consumption of whole and milled rye kernels prepared as breads (study 1, n = 24) and porridges (study 2, n = 20). Sifted wheat bread was used as reference in both study parts and the products were eaten in iso-caloric portions with standardized additional breakfast foods. Breads and porridges were analyzed to determine whether structure (whole vs. milled kernels) effected dietary fibre content and composition after preparation of the products. Statistical evaluation of the appetite ratings after intake of the different breakfasts was done by paired t-tests for morning and afternoon ratings separately, with subjects as random effect and type of breakfast and time points as fixed effects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All rye breakfasts resulted in higher satiety ratings in the morning and afternoon compared with the iso-caloric reference breakfast with sifted wheat bread. Rye bread with milled or whole kernels affected appetite equally, so no effect of structure was observed. In contrast, after consumption of the rye kernel breakfast, satiety was increased and hunger suppressed in the afternoon compared with the milled rye kernel porridge breakfast. This effect could be related to structural differences alone, because the products were equal in nutritional content including dietary fibre content and composition.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The study demonstrates that small changes in diet composition such as cereal grain structure have the potential to effect feelings of hunger and satiety.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01042418">NCT01042418</a>.</p