Comparison of CFD and operational dispersion models in an urban-like environment

Chemical plants, re???neries, transportation of hazardous materials are some of the most attractive facilities for external attacks aimed at the release of toxic substances. Dispersion of these substances into the atmosphere forms a concentration distribution of airborne pollutants with severe consequences for exposed individuals. For emergency preparedness and management, the availability of assessed/vali- dated dispersion models, which can be able to predict concentration distribution and thus dangerous zones for exposed individuals, is of primary importance. Air quality models, integral models and analytical models predict the transport and the turbulent dispersion of gases or aerosols after their release without taking into account in detail the presence of obstacles. Obstacles can modify the velocity ???eld and in turn the concentration ???eld. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models on the other hand are able to describe such phenomena, but they need to be correctly set up, tested and validated in order to obtain reliable results. Within the project Europa-ERG1 TA 113.034 "NBC Modelling and Simulation" several different approaches in CFD modelling of turbulent dispersion in closed, semi-con???ned and urban-like environ- ment were adopted and compared with experimental data and with operational models. In this paper the results of a comparison between models describing the dispersion of a neutral gas in an idealized urban-like environment are presented and discussed. Experimental data available in the literature have been used as a benchmark for assessing statistical performance for each model. Selected experimental trials include some water channel tests, that were performed by Coanda at 1:205 scale, and one full-scale case that was tested in the fall of 2001 at the Dugway Proving Grounds in Utah, using an array of shipping containers. The paper also suggests the adoption of improved statistical parameters in order to better address differences between models, and to have a more straightforward method for comparing models suitable for emergency preparedness aims

Early Probiotic Supplementation and the Risk of Celiac Disease in Children at Genetic Risk

AbstractProbiotics are linked to positive regulatory effects on the immune system. The aim of the study was to examine the association between the exposure of probiotics via dietary supplements or via infant formula by the age of 1 year and the development of celiac disease autoimmunity (CDA) and celiac disease among a cohort of 6520 genetically susceptible children. Use of probiotics during the first year of life was reported by 1460 children. Time-to-event analysis was used to examine the associations. Overall exposure of probiotics during the first year of life was not associated with either CDA (n = 1212) (HR 1.15; 95%CI 0.99, 1.35; p = 0.07) or celiac disease (n = 455) (HR 1.11; 95%CI 0.86, 1.43; p = 0.43) when adjusting for known risk factors. Intake of probiotic dietary supplements, however, was associated with a slightly increased risk of CDA (HR 1.18; 95%CI 1.00, 1.40; p = 0.043) compared to children who did not get probiotics. It was concluded that the overall exposure of probiotics during the first year of life was not associated with CDA or celiac disease in children at genetic risk.Abstract Probiotics are linked to positive regulatory effects on the immune system. The aim of the study was to examine the association between the exposure of probiotics via dietary supplements or via infant formula by the age of 1 year and the development of celiac disease autoimmunity (CDA) and celiac disease among a cohort of 6520 genetically susceptible children. Use of probiotics during the first year of life was reported by 1460 children. Time-to-event analysis was used to examine the associations. Overall exposure of probiotics during the first year of life was not associated with either CDA (n = 1212) (HR 1.15; 95%CI 0.99, 1.35; p = 0.07) or celiac disease (n = 455) (HR 1.11; 95%CI 0.86, 1.43; p = 0.43) when adjusting for known risk factors. Intake of probiotic dietary supplements, however, was associated with a slightly increased risk of CDA (HR 1.18; 95%CI 1.00, 1.40; p = 0.043) compared to children who did not get probiotics. It was concluded that the overall exposure of probiotics during the first year of life was not associated with CDA or celiac disease in children at genetic risk

Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset trooppisiin hirmumyrskyihin Pohjois-Atlantilla ja läntisellä Tyynellämerellä

Tässä tutkielmassa tutustutaan trooppisten hirmumyrskyjen syntymekanismeihin sekä sääilmiöihin, jotka vaikuttavat myrskyjen esiintymiseen Pohjois-Atlantilla ja läntisellä osalla Tyyntä valtamerta. Taustalla on ajatus ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksista hirmumyrskyjen esiintymiseen, sillä useat tutkijat ovat raportoineet lämpenevän ilmaston suotuisista vaikutuksista trooppisten myrskyjen kehittymisen suhteen. Lämpenevässä ilmastossa odotetaan muutoksia merien pintalämpötiloissa, tuuliolosuhteissa, ilmakehässä sekä sääilmiöissä. Läntisellä Tyynellämerellä ENSO:n voimistuminen ja heikkenevä Walkerin kiertokulku voivat edesauttaa entistä useampien ja voimakkaampien taifuunien esiintymistä alueella. Vastaavasti Pohjois-Atlantilla voimistuva ENSO ja kasvavat vertikaaliset tuulet haittaavat hirmumyrskyjen kehittymistä ja siellä on odotettavissa vähemmän hirmumyrskyaktiivisuutta

Comparison of CFD and operational dispersion models in an urban-like environment

Chemical plants, refineries, transportation of hazardous materials are some of the most attractive facilities for external attacks aimed at the release of toxic substances. Dispersion of these substances into the atmosphere forms a concentration distribution of airborne pollutants with severe consequences for exposed individuals. For emergency preparedness and management, the availability of assessed/vali- dated dispersion models, which can be able to predict concentration distribution and thus dangerous zones for exposed individuals, is of primary importance. Air quality models, integral models and analytical models predict the transport and the turbulent dispersion of gases or aerosols after their release without taking into account in detail the presence of obstacles. Obstacles can modify the velocity field and in turn the concentration field. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models on the other hand are able to describe such phenomena, but they need to be correctly set up, tested and validated in order to obtain reliable results. Within the project Europa-ERG1 TA 113.034 "NBC Modelling and Simulation" several different approaches in CFD modelling of turbulent dispersion in closed, semi-confined and urban-like environ- ment were adopted and compared with experimental data and with operational models. In this paper the results of a comparison between models describing the dispersion of a neutral gas in an idealized urban-like environment are presented and discussed. Experimental data available in the literature have been used as a benchmark for assessing statistical performance for each model. Selected experimental trials include some water channel tests, that were performed by Coanda at 1:205 scale, and one full-scale case that was tested in the fall of 2001 at the Dugway Proving Grounds in Utah, using an array of shipping containers. The paper also suggests the adoption of improved statistical parameters in order to better address differences between models, and to have a more straightforward method for comparing models suitable for emergency preparedness aims

Risk of pediatric celiac disease according to HLA haplotype and country

BACKGROUND: The presence of HLA haplotype DR3-DQ2 or DR4-DQ8 is associated with an increased risk of celiac disease. In addition, nearly all children with celiac disease have serum antibodies against tissue transglutaminase (tTG). METHODS: We studied 6403 children with HLA haplotype DR3-DQ2 or DR4-DQ8 prospectively from birth in the United States, Finland, Germany, and Sweden. The primary end point was the development of celiac disease autoimmunity, which was defined as the presence of tTG antibodies on two consecutive tests at least 3 months apart. The secondary end point was the development of celiac disease, which was defined for the purpose of this study as either a diagnosis on biopsy or persistently high levels of tTG antibodies. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 60 months (interquartile range, 46 to 77). Celiac disease autoimmunity developed in 786 children (12%). Of the 350 children who underwent biopsy, 291 had confirmed celiac disease; an additional 21 children who did not undergo biopsy had persistently high levels of tTG antibodies. The risks of celiac disease autoimmunity and celiac disease by the age of 5 years were 11% and 3%, respectively, among children with a single DR3-DQ2 haplotype, and 26% and 11%, respectively, among those with two copies (DR3-DQ2 homozygosity). In the adjusted model, the hazard ratios for celiac disease autoimmunity were 2.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.70 to 2.56) among heterozygotes and 5.70 (95% CI, 4.66 to 6.97) among homozygotes, as compared with children who had the lowest-risk genotypes (DR4-DQ8 heterozygotes or homozygotes). Residence in Sweden was also independently associated with an increased risk of celiac disease autoimmunity (hazard ratio, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.61 to 2.25). CONCLUSIONS: Children with the HLA haplotype DR3-DQ2, especially homozygotes, were found to be at high risk for celiac disease autoimmunity and celiac disease early in childhood. The higher risk in Sweden than in other countries highlights the importance of studying environmental factors associated with celiac disease. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others.)Nejm, free fulltext, erratum: N Engl J Med. 2014 Jul 24;371(4):39