Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the "high hazardous" category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures

The interaction of flow regimes and nutrient fluxes on the water quality and ecosystem health of a clear, freshwater wetland

Across the globe, the hydrology and ecology of wetland systems have been altered by anthropogenic activities, sometimes leading to regime shift or even ecosystem collapse. Often, it is not only the impact of one stressor, but the combination of multiple stressors interacting that ultimately leads to adverse ecological impact in wetland systems. However, because of the difficulty in measuring the combined, dynamic effects of multiple stressors, relatively few studies estimate the relative importance of multiple stressors on wetland ecosystems. We combined controlled laboratory and field experiments with a modeling exercise to examine the relative importance of flow and nutrient loads on the resilience of a clear, groundwater-fed wetland dominated by macrophytes. We examined the potential for a combination of lower inflow and higher nutrient loads to increase phytoplankton growth and reduce light availability, culminating in a reduction in macrophyte growth due to the shading of the phytoplankton. This combination of events could result in a collapse of this endemic ecosystem, including local extinction of several endangered species. We found that the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated wetlands is maintained by preserving high flow even under increasing phosphorus concentrations. Nutrient availability increases as flow decreases, favoring pelagic algal development and inducing a shift in the ecosystem conditions. This shows that focusing only on input nutrient levels, as is often done in open waters of concern, is not sufficient to preserve the native ecosystem and highlights the need to consider multiple factors when assessing anthropogenic impacts on wetlands.Margaret Shanafield, Anna Rigosi, Yang Liu and Justin Brooke

Quantum Hall resistance dartboards using graphene p-n junction devices with Corbino geometries

The use of multiple current terminals on millimeter-scale graphene p-n junction devices fabricated with Corbino geometries, or quantum Hall resistance dartboards, has enabled the measurement of several fractional multiples of the quantized Hall resistance at the ν = 2 plateau (RH ≈ 12 906 Ω). Experimentally obtained values agreed with the corresponding numerical simulations performed with the LTspice circuit simulator. More complicated designs of the quantum Hall resistance dartboard were simulated to establish the potential parameter space within which these Corbino-type devices could output resistance. Most importantly, these measurements support simpler processes of ultraviolet lithography as a more efficient means of scaling up graphene-based device sizes while maintaining sufficiently narrow junctions

Allelopathic interactions of linoleic acid and nitric oxide increase the competitive ability of Microcystis aeruginosa

The frequency and intensity of cyanobacterial blooms are increasing worldwide with major societal and economic costs. Interactions between toxic cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algal competitors can affect toxic bloom formation, but the exact mechanisms of interspecies interactions remain unknown. Using metabolomic and proteomic profiling of co-cultures of the toxic cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa with a green alga as well as of microorganisms collected in a Microcystis spp. bloom in Lake Taihu (China), we disentangle novel interspecies allelopathic interactions. We describe an interspecies molecular network in which M. aeruginosa inhibits growth of Chlorella vulgaris, a model green algal competitor, via the release of linoleic acid. In addition, we demonstrate how M. aeruginosa takes advantage of the cell signaling compound nitric oxide produced by C. vulgaris, which stimulates a positive feedback mechanism of linoleic acid release by M. aeruginosa and its toxicity. Our high-throughput system-biology approach highlights the importance of previously unrecognized allelopathic interactions between a broadly distributed toxic cyanobacterial bloom former and one of its algal competitors

Lateralization in the Invertebrate Brain: Left-Right Asymmetry of Olfaction in Bumble Bee, Bombus terrestris

Brain and behavioural lateralization at the population level has been recently hypothesized to have evolved under social selective pressures as a strategy to optimize coordination among asymmetrical individuals. Evidence for this hypothesis have been collected in Hymenoptera: eusocial honey bees showed olfactory lateralization at the population level, whereas solitary mason bees only showed individual-level olfactory lateralization. Here we investigated lateralization of odour detection and learning in the bumble bee, Bombus terrestris L., an annual eusocial species of Hymenoptera. By training bumble bees on the proboscis extension reflex paradigm with only one antenna in use, we provided the very first evidence of asymmetrical performance favouring the right antenna in responding to learned odours in this species. Electroantennographic responses did not reveal significant antennal asymmetries in odour detection, whereas morphological counting of olfactory sensilla showed a predominance in the number of olfactory sensilla trichodea type A in the right antenna. The occurrence of a population level asymmetry in olfactory learning of bumble bee provides new information on the relationship between social behaviour and the evolution of population-level asymmetries in animals

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.Peer reviewe

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009

Peer reviewe

A multimodal approach for tracing lateralization along the olfactory pathway in the honeybee through electrophysiological recordings, morpho-functional imaging, and behavioural studies

Recent studies have revealed asymmetries between the left and right sides of the brain in invertebrate species. Here we present a review of a series of recent studies from our labs, aimed at tracing asymmetries at different stages along the honeybee's (Apis mellifera) olfactory pathway. These include estimates of the number of sensilla present on the two antennae, obtained by scanning electron microscopy, as well as electroantennography recordings of the left and right antennal responses to odorants. We describe investigative studies of the antennal lobes, where multi-photon microscopy is used to search for possible morphological asymmetries between the two brain sides. Moreover, we report on recently published results obtained by two-photon calcium imaging for functional mapping of the antennal lobe aimed at comparing patterns of activity evoked by different odours. Finally, possible links to the results of behavioural tests, measuring asymmetries in single-sided olfactory memory recall, are discussed.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figure