The projection and measurement of cyberpower

Cyberspace and cyberpower are terms that are increasingly used in common parlance, but are notoriously difficult to define and measure. This article builds on previous work defining the properties of cyberspace in terms of vertical layers, which when combined with a representation of distance presents a three-dimensional model. The unique attributes of cyberspace can be harnessed for power projection, the aim of which is ultimately to alter the behaviour of individuals. Although cyberspace has yet to be used as a medium to demonstrate conventional hard power of coercion and threats supported by physical force, it does present a suitable medium for the projection of soft power of attraction and imitation. These are defined within the context of the online environment and by drawing on the techniques used to optimise Web-based commerce, potential methods of implementing and measuring the success of a campaign of cyberpower projection are proposed

Should Research Ethics Encourage the Production of Cost-Effective Interventions?

This project considers whether and how research ethics can contribute to the provision of cost-effective medical interventions. Clinical research ethics represents an underexplored context for the promotion of cost-effectiveness. In particular, although scholars have recently argued that research on less-expensive, less-effective interventions can be ethical, there has been little or no discussion of whether ethical considerations justify curtailing research on more expensive, more effective interventions. Yet considering cost-effectiveness at the research stage can help ensure that scarce resources such as tissue samples or limited subject popula- tions are employed where they do the most good; can support parallel efforts by providers and insurers to promote cost-effectiveness; and can ensure that research has social value and benefits subjects. I discuss and rebut potential objections to the consideration of cost-effectiveness in research, including the difficulty of predicting effectiveness and cost at the research stage, concerns about limitations in cost-effectiveness analysis, and worries about overly limiting researchers’ freedom. I then consider the advantages and disadvantages of having certain participants in the research enterprise, including IRBs, advisory committees, sponsors, investigators, and subjects, consider cost-effectiveness. The project concludes by qualifiedly endorsing the consideration of cost-effectiveness at the research stage. While incorporating cost-effectiveness considerations into the ethical evaluation of human subjects research will not on its own ensure that the health care system realizes cost-effectiveness goals, doing so nonetheless represents an important part of a broader effort to control rising medical costs

Adaptive Honeypot Engagement through Reinforcement Learning of Semi-Markov Decision Processes

A honeynet is a promising active cyber defense mechanism. It reveals the fundamental Indicators of Compromise (IoCs) by luring attackers to conduct adversarial behaviors in a controlled and monitored environment. The active interaction at the honeynet brings a high reward but also introduces high implementation costs and risks of adversarial honeynet exploitation. In this work, we apply infinite-horizon Semi-Markov Decision Process (SMDP) to characterize a stochastic transition and sojourn time of attackers in the honeynet and quantify the reward-risk trade-off. In particular, we design adaptive long-term engagement policies shown to be risk-averse, cost-effective, and time-efficient. Numerical results have demonstrated that our adaptive engagement policies can quickly attract attackers to the target honeypot and engage them for a sufficiently long period to obtain worthy threat information. Meanwhile, the penetration probability is kept at a low level. The results show that the expected utility is robust against attackers of a large range of persistence and intelligence. Finally, we apply reinforcement learning to the SMDP to solve the curse of modeling. Under a prudent choice of the learning rate and exploration policy, we achieve a quick and robust convergence of the optimal policy and value.Comment: The presentation can be found at https://youtu.be/GPKT3uJtXqk. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.0139

A genealogy of hacking

Hacking is now a widely discussed and known phenomenon, but remains difficult to define and empirically identify because it has come to refer to many different, sometimes incompatible, material practices. This paper proposes genealogy as a framework for understanding hacking by briefly revisiting Foucault’s concept of genealogy and interpreting its perspectival stance through the feminist materialist concept of the situated observer. Using genealogy as a theoretical frame a history of hacking will be proposed in four phases. The first phase is the ‘pre-history’ of hacking in which four core practices were developed. The second phase is the ‘golden age of cracking’ in which hacking becomes a self-conscious identity and community and is for many identified with breaking into computers, even while non-cracking practices such as free software mature. The third phase sees hacking divide into a number of new practices even while old practices continue, including the rise of serious cybercrime, hacktivism, the division of Open Source and Free Software and hacking as an ethic of business and work. The final phase sees broad consciousness of state-sponsored hacking, the re-rise of hardware hacking in maker labs and hack spaces and the diffusion of hacking into a broad ‘clever’ practice. In conclusion it will be argued that hacking consists across all the practices surveyed of an interrogation of the rationality of information techno-cultures enacted by each hacker practice situating itself within a particular techno-culture and then using that techno-culture to change itself, both in changing potential actions that can be taken and changing the nature of the techno-culture itself

Progression of Biopsy-Measured Liver Fibrosis in Untreated Patients with Hepatitis C Infection: Non-Markov Multistate Model Analysis

BACKGROUND: Fibrosis stages from liver biopsies reflect liver damage from hepatitis C infection, but analysis is challenging due to their ordered but non-numeric nature, infrequent measurement, misclassification, and unknown infection times. METHODS: We used a non-Markov multistate model, accounting for misclassification, with multiple imputation of unknown infection times, applied to 1062 participants of whom 159 had multiple biopsies. Odds ratios (OR) quantified the estimated effects of covariates on progression risk at any given time. RESULTS: Models estimated that progression risk decreased the more time participants had already spent in the current stage, African American race was protective (OR 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.95, p = 0.018), and older current age increased risk (OR 1.33 per decade, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.54, p = 0.0002). When controlled for current age, older age at infection did not appear to increase risk (OR 0.92 per decade, 95% confidence interval 0.47 to 1.79, p = 0.80). There was a suggestion that co-infection with human immunodeficiency virus increased risk of progression in the era of highly active antiretroviral treatment beginning in 1996 (OR 2.1, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 4.4, p = 0.059). Other examined risk factors may influence progression risk, but evidence for or against this was weak due to wide confidence intervals. The main results were essentially unchanged using different assumed misclassification rates or imputation of age of infection. DISCUSSION: The analysis avoided problems inherent in simpler methods, supported the previously suspected protective effect of African American race, and suggested that current age rather than age of infection increases risk. Decreasing risk of progression with longer time already spent in a stage was also previously found for post-transplant progression. This could reflect varying disease activity, with recent progression indicating active disease and high risk, while longer time already spent in a stage indicates quiescent disease and low risk

Anti-Equivalence: Pragmatics of post-liberal dispute

In the early 21st century, liberal democracies have witnessed their foundational norms of critique and deliberation being disrupted by a combination of populist and technological forces. A distinctive style of dispute has appeared, in which a speaker denounces the unfairness of all liberal and institutional systems of equivalence, including the measures of law, economics and the various other ‘tests’ which convention scholars have deemed core to organisations. The article reviews how sociologists of critique have tended to treat critical capacities as oriented towards consensus, but then considers how technologies of real-time ‘control’ circumvent liberal critique altogether. In response, a different type of dispute emerges in the digital public sphere, which abandons equivalences in general, instead adopting a non-representational template of warfare. This style of post-liberal dispute is manifest in the rhetoric of populists, but does not originate there

Deterrence in Cyberspace: An Interdisciplinary Review of the Empirical Literature

The popularity of the deterrence perspective across multiple scientific disciplines has sparked a lively debate regarding its relevance in influencing both offenders and targets in cyberspace. Unfortunately, due to the invisible borders between academic disciplines, most of the published literature on deterrence in cyberspace is confined within unique scientific disciplines. This chapter therefore provides an interdisciplinary review of the issue of deterrence in cyberspace. It begins with a short overview of the deterrence perspective, presenting the ongoing debates concerning the relevance of deterrence pillars in influencing cybercriminals’ and cyberattackers’ operations in cyberspace. It then reviews the existing scientific evidence assessing various aspects of deterrence in the context of several disciplines: criminology, law, information systems, and political science. This chapter ends with a few policy implications and proposed directions for future interdisciplinary academic research

Development of Plasma Vitellogenin Assay for Estrogenic Effects of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals Using Ovariectomized Goldfish (Carassius auratus)

Plasma vitellogenin (VTG) assay was developed using ovariectomized goldfish (Carassius auratus) for determining the estrogenic effects of endocrine-disrupting chemicals. In a laboratory study, we assessed the estrogenic activity of commercial fish diets by using a diet for ornamental carp (CD) and a casein-based formulated fish diet (FD), which was shown to not contain soybean or fish meal in a previous study. In ovariectomized fish, plasma VTG concentrations were significantly higher in the CD-fed group than in the FD-fed group. These results indicate that the estrogen activity of CD may be high enough to cause induction of plasma VTG in ovariectomized goldfish as previously observed in male goldfish. Moreover, the effect of estrogen on plasma VTG induction was confirmed by significant plasma VTG production following the exposure of FD-fed ovariectomized goldfish to a nominal estradiol-17β concentration of 100 μg/l for 31 days. Our data suggest that induction of plasma VTG using ovariectomized goldfish is a good tool for evaluating the estrogenic effects of endocrine-disrupting chemicals