Re-framing the threat of global warming: an empirical causal loop diagram of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse

Funder: The General Sir John Monash FoundationFunder: The Cambridge TrustAbstractThere is increasing concern that climate change poses an existential risk to humanity. Understanding these worst-case scenarios is essential for good risk management. However, our knowledge of the causal pathways through which climate change could cause societal collapse is underdeveloped. This paper aims to identify and structure an empirical evidence base of the climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse pathway. We first review the societal collapse and existential risk literature and define a set of determinants of societal collapse. We develop an original methodology, using these determinants as societal collapse proxies, to identify an empirical evidence base of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse in contemporary society and then structure it using a novel-format causal loop diagram (CLD) defined at global scale and national granularity. The resulting evidence base varies in temporal and spatial distribution of study and in the type of data-driven methods used. The resulting CLD documents the spread of the evidence base, using line thickness and colour to depict density and type of data-driven method respectively. It enables exploration of how the effects of climate change may undermine agricultural systems and disrupt food supply, which can lead to economic shocks, socio-political instability as well as starvation, migration and conflict. Suggestions are made for future work that could build on this paper to further develop our qualitative understanding of, and quantitative complex systems modelling capabilities for analysing, the causal pathways between climate change and societal collapse.</jats:p

An efficient and locking-free material point method for three dimensional analysis with simplex elements

The Material Point Method is a relative newcomer to the world of solid mechanicsmodelling. Its key advantage is the ability to model problems having large defor-mations while being relatively close to standard nite element methods, howeverits use for realistic engineering applications will happen only if the material pointcan be shown to be both ecient and accurate (compared to standard nite elementmethods), when modelling complex geometries with a range of material models. Inthis paper we present developments of the standard material point method aimed atrealising these goals. The key contribution provided here is the development of amaterial point method that avoids volumetric locking (arising from elastic or elasto-plastic material behaviour) whilst using low order tetrahedral nite elements forthe background computational mesh, hence allowing unstructured background gridsto be used for complex geometries. We also show that these developments can beeectively parallelised to improve computational ecienc

Questioning Classic Patient Classification Techniques in Gait Rehabilitation: Insights from Wearable Haptic Technology

Classifying stroke survivors based on their walking abilities is an important part of the gait rehabilitation process. It can act as powerful indicator of function and prognosis in both the early days after a stroke and long after a survivor receives rehabilitation. This classification often relies solely on walking speed; a quick and easy measure, with only a stopwatch needed. However, walking speed may not be the most accurate way of judging individual’s walking ability. Advances in technology mean we are now in a position where ubiquitous and wearable technologies can be used to elicit much richer measures to characterise gait. In this paper we present a case study from one of our studies, where within a homogenous group of stroke survivors (based on walking speed classification) important differences in individual results and the way they responded to rhythmic haptic cueing were identified during the piloting of a novel gait rehabilitation technique

The Outjoyment Report: A Research Report on the Well-being and Mental Health Benefits of Camping

A research report on the well-being and mental health benefits of campin

Clustering and Alignment of Polymorphic Sequences for HLA-DRB1 Genotyping

Located on Chromosome 6p21, classical human leukocyte antigen genes are highly polymorphic. HLA alleles associate with a variety of phenotypes, such as narcolepsy, autoimmunity, as well as immunologic response to infectious disease. Moreover, high resolution genotyping of these loci is critical to achieving long-term survival of allogeneic transplants. Development of methods to obtain high resolution analysis of HLA genotypes will lead to improved understanding of how select alleles contribute to human health and disease risk. Genomic DNAs were obtained from a cohort of n = 383 subjects recruited as part of an Ulcerative Colitis study and analyzed for HLA-DRB1. HLA genotypes were determined using sequence specific oligonucleotide probes and by next-generation sequencing using the Roche/454 GSFLX instrument. The Clustering and Alignment of Polymorphic Sequences (CAPSeq) software application was developed to analyze next-generation sequencing data. The application generates HLA sequence specific 6-digit genotype information from next-generation sequencing data using MUMmer to align sequences and the R package diffusionMap to classify sequences into their respective allelic groups. The incorporation of Bootstrap Aggregating, Bagging to aid in sorting of sequences into allele classes resulted in improved genotyping accuracy. Using Bagging iterations equal to 60, the genotyping results obtained using CAPSeq when compared with sequence specific oligonucleotide probe characterized 4-digit genotypes exhibited high rates of concordance, matching at 759 out of 766 (99.1%) alleles. © 2013 Ringquist et al

FRA2A is a CGG repeat expansion associated with silencing of AFF3

Folate-sensitive fragile sites (FSFS) are a rare cytogenetically visible subset of dynamic mutations. Of the eight molecularly characterized FSFS, four are associated with intellectual disability (ID). Cytogenetic expression results from CGG tri-nucleotide-repeat expansion mutation associated with local CpG hypermethylation and transcriptional silencing. The best studied is the FRAXA site in the FMR1 gene, where large expansions cause fragile X syndrome, the most common inherited ID syndrome. Here we studied three families with FRA2A expression at 2q11 associated with a wide spectrum of neurodevelopmental phenotypes. We identified a polymorphic CGG repeat in a conserved, brain-active alternative promoter of the AFF3 gene, an autosomal homolog of the X-linked AFF2/FMR2 gene: Expansion of the AFF2 CGG repeat causes FRAXE ID. We found that FRA2A-expressing individuals have mosaic expansions of the AFF3 CGG repeat in the range of several hundred repeat units. Moreover, bisulfite sequencing and pyrosequencing both suggest AFF3 promoter hypermethylation. cSNP-analysis demonstrates monoallelic expression of the AFF3 gene in FRA2A carriers thus predicting that FRA2A expression results in functional haploinsufficiency for AFF3 at least in a subset of tissues. By whole-mount in situ hybridization the mouse AFF3 ortholog shows strong regional expression in the developing brain, somites and limb buds in 9.5-12.5dpc mouse embryos. Our data suggest that there may be an association between FRA2A and a delay in the acquisition of motor and language skills in the families studied here. However, additional cases are required to firmly establish a causal relationship

Systematic review and meta-analysis of reduction in all-cause mortality from walking and cycling and shape of dose response relationship

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Walking and cycling have shown beneficial effects on population risk of all-cause mortality (ACM). This paper aims to review the evidence and quantify these effects, adjusted for other physical activity (PA). DATA SOURCES: We conducted a systematic review to identify relevant studies. Searches were conducted in November 2013 using the following health databases of publications: Embase (OvidSP); Medline (OvidSP); Web of Knowledge; CINAHL; SCOPUS; SPORTDiscus. We also searched reference lists of relevant texts and reviews. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA AND PARTICIPANTS: Eligible studies were prospective cohort design and reporting walking or cycling exposure and mortality as an outcome. Only cohorts of individuals healthy at baseline were considered eligible. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Extracted data included study population and location, sample size, population characteristics (age and sex), follow-up in years, walking or cycling exposure, mortality outcome, and adjustment for other co-variables. We used random-effects meta-analyses to investigate the beneficial effects of regular walking and cycling. RESULTS: Walking (18 results from 14 studies) and cycling (8 results from 7 studies) were shown to reduce the risk of all-cause mortality, adjusted for other PA. For a standardised dose of 11.25 MET.hours per week (or 675 MET.minutes per week), the reduction in risk for ACM was 11% (95% CI = 4 to 17%) for walking and 10% (95% CI = 6 to 13%) for cycling. The estimates for walking are based on 280,000 participants and 2.6 million person-years and for cycling they are based on 187,000 individuals and 2.1 million person-years. The shape of the dose-response relationship was modelled through meta-analysis of pooled relative risks within three exposure intervals. The dose-response analysis showed that walking or cycling had the greatest effect on risk for ACM in the first (lowest) exposure interval. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The analysis shows that walking and cycling have population-level health benefits even after adjustment for other PA. Public health approaches would have the biggest impact if they are able to increase walking and cycling levels in the groups that have the lowest levels of these activities. REVIEW REGISTRATION: The review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (International database of prospectively registered systematic reviews in health and social care) PROSPERO 2013: CRD42013004266

Stress related epigenetic changes may explain opportunistic success in biological invasions in Antipode mussels

Different environmental factors could induce epigenetic changes, which are likely involved in the biological invasion process. Some of these factors are driven by humans as, for example, the pollution and deliberate or accidental introductions and others are due to natural conditions such as salinity. In this study, we have analysed the relationship between different stress factors: time in the new location, pollution and salinity with the methylation changes that could be involved in the invasive species tolerance to new environments. For this purpose, we have analysed two different mussels’ species, reciprocally introduced in antipode areas: the Mediterranean blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the New Zealand pygmy mussel Xenostrobus securis, widely recognized invaders outside their native distribution ranges. The demetylathion was higher in more stressed population, supporting the idea of epigenetic is involved in plasticity process. These results can open a new management protocols, using the epigenetic signals as potential pollution monitoring tool. We could use these epigenetic marks to recognise the invasive status in a population and determine potential biopollutants