Bringing Competition to Urban Water Supply

This paper proposes a market-based reform that would introduce competition into the provision of urban water. This proposal calls for a decoupling of infrastructure control and ownership of water whereby the property rights to water would be transferred to private hands. The proposal involves periodically allocation (e.g. by auction) of existing water stock held in urban catchments to virtual suppliers who then compete in providing bulk water. This change when coupled with effective third party access and retail competition would lead to a competitive market for the provision of urban water. The approach aims to address concerns over inefficient pricing and infrastructure provision under the current arrangement.Water Utilities, Efficient Water Pricing, Water Provider Competition

Multiple environmental controls explain global patterns in soil animal communities

Soil animals play important roles in ecosystem functioning and stability, but the environmental controls on their communities are not fully understood. In this study, we compiled a dataset of soil animal communities for which the abundance and body mass of multiple soil animal groups were recorded. The mass–abundance scaling relationships were then used to investigate multiple environmental controls on soil animal community composition. The data reveal latitudinal shifts from high abundances of small soil animals at high latitudes to greater relative abundances of large soil animals at low latitudes. A hierarchical linear mixed effects model was applied to reveal the environmental variables shaping these latitudinal trends. The final hierarchical model identified mean annual temperature, soil pH and soil organic carbon content as key environmental controls explaining global mass–abundance scaling relationships in soil animal communities (R2c = 0.828, Ngroup = 117). Such relationships between soil biota with climate and edaphic conditions have been previously identified for soil microbial, but not soil animal, communities at a global scale. More comprehensive global soil community datasets are needed to better understand the generality of these relationships over a broader range of global ecosystems and soil animal groups

Genetic polymorphisms between altruism and selfishness close to the Hamilton threshold rb = c

Genes that in certain conditions make their carriers altruistic are being identified, and altruism and selfishness have been shown to be heritable in man. This raises the possibility that genetic polymorphisms for altruism/selfishness exist in man and other animals. Here we characterise some of the conditions in which genetic polymorphisms may occur. We show for dominant or recessive alleles how the positions of stable equilibria depend on the benefit to the recipient, b, and the cost to the altruist, c, for diploid altruists helping half or full sibs, and haplodiploid altruists helping sisters. Stable polymorphisms always occur close to the Hamilton threshold rb = c. The position of the stable equilibrium moves away 0 or 1 with both increases in c, the cost paid by the altruist, and increasing divergence from the Hamilton threshold, and alleles for selfishness can reach frequencies around 50%. We evaluate quantitative estimates of b, c and r from field studies in the light of these predictions, but the values do not fall in the regions where genetic polymorphisms are expected. Nevertheless it will be interesting to see as genes for altruism are discovered whether they are accompanied by alternate alleles for selfishness

The importance of including habitat-specific behaviour in models of butterfly movement

Dispersal is a key process affecting population persistence and major factors affecting dispersal rates are the amounts, connectedness and properties of habitats in landscapes. We present new data on the butterfly Maniola jurtina in flower-rich and flower-poor habitats that demonstrates how movement and behaviour differ between sexes and habitat types, and how this effects consequent dispersal rates. Females had higher flight speeds than males but their total time in flight was four times less. The effect of habitat type was strong for both sexes, flight speeds were ~2.5x and ~1.7x faster on resource-poor habitats for males and females respectively, and flights were approximately 50% longer. With few exceptions females oviposited in the mown grass habitat, likely because growing grass offers better food for emerging caterpillars, but they foraged in the resource-rich habitat. It seems that females faced a trade-off between ovipositing without foraging in the mown grass or foraging without ovipositing where flowers were abundant. We show that taking account of habitat-dependent differences in activity, here categorised as flight or non-flight, is crucial to obtaining good fits of an individual-based model to observed movement. An important implication of this finding is that incorporating habitat-specific activity budgets is likely necessary for predicting longer-term dispersal in heterogeneous habitats as habitat-specific behaviour substantially influences the mean (>30% difference) and kurtosis (1.4x difference) of dispersal kernels. The presented IBMs provide a simple method to explicitly incorporate known activity and movement rates when predicting dispersal in changing and heterogeneous landscapes

Taking error into account when fitting models using approximate Bayesian computation

Stochastic computer simulations are often the only practical way of answering questions relating to ecological management. However, due to their complexity, such models are difficult to calibrate and evaluate. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) offers an increasingly popular approach to this problem, widely applied across a variety of fields. However, ensuring the accuracy of ABC's estimates has been difficult. Here, we obtain more accurate estimates by incorporating estimation of error into the ABC protocol. We show how this can be done where the data consist of repeated measures of the same quantity and errors may be assumed to be normally distributed and independent. We then derive the correct acceptance probabilities for a probabilistic ABC algorithm, and update the 'coverage test' with which accuracy is assessed. We apply this method - which we call 'error-calibrated ABC' - to a toy example and a realistic 14-parameter simulation model of earthworms that is used in environmental risk assessment. A comparison with exact methods and the diagnostic 'coverage test' show that our approach improves estimation of parameter values and their credible intervals for both models

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses

Joint Effects of Population Density and Toxicant Exposure on Population Dynamics of \u3ci\u3eCapitella\u3c/i\u3e Sp. I

Very few studies have analyzed the dependence of population growth rate on population density, and even fewer have considered interaction effects of density and other stresses, such as exposure to toxic chemicals. Yet without such studies we cannot know whether chemicals harmful at low density have effects on carrying capacity or, conversely, whether chemicals reducing carrying capacity are also harmful at low density, impeding a population’s capacity to recover from disturbance. This study examines the combined effects of population density and a toxicant (fluoranthene) on population growth rate (pgr) and carrying capacity using the deposit-feeding polychaete Capitella sp. I as a test organism. Populations were initiated with a stable age distribution, and population density and age/size distribution were followed during a period of 28 wk. Fluoranthene (FLU), population density, and their interaction influenced population growth rate. Population growth rate declined linearly with the logarithm of population biomass, but the slope of the relationship was steeper for the control populations than for populations exposed to 50 μg FLU/(g sediment dry mass). Populations exposed to 150 μg FLU/(g sediment dry mass) went extinct after 8 wk of exposure. Despite concerns that toxicant effects would be exacerbated at high density, we found the reverse to be the case, and effects of fluoranthene on population growth rate were much reduced in the region of carrying capacity. Fluoranthene did reduce carrying capacity by 46%, and this could have important implications for interacting species and/or sediment biogeochemical processes

A general approach to incorporating spatial and temporal variation in individual-based models of fish populations with application to Atlantic mackerel

Fish population dynamics are affected by multiple ecosystem drivers, such as food-web interactions, exploitation, density-dependence and the wider environment. While tactical management is still dominated by single-species models that do not explicitly account for these drivers, more holistic ecosystem models are used in strategic management. One way forward in this regard is with individual-based models (IBMs), which provide a single framework in which these drivers can be represented explicitly. We present a generic marine fish IBM that incorporates spatial and temporal variation in food availability, temperature and exploitation. Key features of the model are that it (1) includes realistic energy budgets; (2) includes the full life cycle of fish; (3) is spatially-explicit and (4) incorporates satellite remote-sensing data to represent the environmental drivers. The rates at which individuals acquire and use energy depend on local food availability and temperature. Their state variables, including life stage, size and energy reserves, are updated daily, from which population structure and dynamics emerge. To demonstrate the use of the model we calibrate it for mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North East Atlantic. Most parameters are taken from the literature, except the background early mortality rate and the strength predator density dependence, which were estimated by fitting the model to data using Approximate Bayesian Computation. The calibrated model successfully matches the available data on mackerel population dynamics and structure. We demonstrate the use of the model for management purposes by simulating the population effects of opening and closing a sector of the North Sea to mackerel fishing. Our model uses basic principles of behavioural and physiological ecology to establish how spatial and temporal variations in ecosystem drivers affect the individuals in the population. Population dynamics and structure are calculated from the collective effects on individuals. Application to a test case shows the method can fit available data well. Individual-based approaches such as this study have potential for use in strategic management because they can account for spatial structuring, food-web interactions, density dependence, and environmental drivers within a single framework

How phenotypic matching based on neutral mating cues enables speciation in locally adapted populations

Maynard Smith's (American Naturalist, 1966, 100, 637) suggestion that in some cases a prerequisite for speciation is the existence of local ecological adaptations has not received much attention to date. Here, we test the hypothesis using a model like that of Maynard Smith but differing in the way animals disperse between niches. In previous studies, males disperse randomly between niches but females stay put in their natal niche. As a first step toward generalizing the model, we here analyze the case that equal proportions of the two sexes disperse between niches before breeding. Supporting Maynard Smith's (1966) hypothesis, we find that once local adaptations are established, a neutral mating cue at an independent locus can rapidly enable speciation in populations with a suitable mechanism for phenotype matching. We find that stable ecological polymorphisms are relatively insensitive to the strength of selection, but depend crucially on the extent of dispersal between niches, with a threshold of ~5% if population sizes in two niches are equal. At higher levels of dispersal, ecological differentiation is lost. These results contrast with those of earlier studies and shed light on why parapatric speciation is limited by the extent of gene flow. Our testable model provides a candidate explanation for the rapid speciation rates, diversity of appearance and occurrence of “species flocks” observed among some African cichlids and neotropical birds and may also have implications for the occurrence of punctuational change on phylogenies

How body mass and lifestyle affect juvenile biomass production in placental mammals

In mammals, the mass-specific rate of biomass production during gestation and lactation, here called maternal productivity, has been shown to vary with body size and lifestyle. Metabolic theory predicts that post-weaning growth of offspring, here termed juvenile productivity, should be higher than maternal productivity, and juveniles of smaller species should be more productive than those of larger species. Furthermore because juveniles generally have similar lifestyles to their mothers, across species juvenile and maternal productivities should be correlated. We evaluated these predictions with data from 270 species of placental mammals in 14 taxonomic/lifestyle groups. All three predictions were supported. Lagomorphs, perissodactyls and artiodactyls were very productive both as juveniles and as mothers as expected from the abundance and reliability of their foods. Primates and bats were unproductive as juveniles and as mothers, as expected as an indirect consequence of their low predation risk and consequent low mortality. Our results point the way to a mechanistic explanation for the suite of correlated life-history traits that has been called the slow–fast continuum