Revisiting the Leading Drivers of Pacific Coastal Drought Variability in the Contiguous United States

Coastal droughts that simultaneously affect California, Oregon, and Washington are rare, but they have extensive and severe impacts (e.g., wildfire and agriculture). To better understand these events, historical observations are used to investigate 1) drought variability along the Pacific coast of the contiguous United States and 2) years when extreme drought affects the entire coast. The leading pattern of cold-season (October–March) precipitation variability along the Pacific coast favors spatially coherent moisture anomalies, accounting for >40% of the underlying variance, and is forced primarily by internal atmospheric dynamics. This contrasts with a much weaker dipole mode (~20% of precipitation variability) characterized by antiphased moisture anomalies across 40°N and strong correlations with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Sixteen coastal-wide summer droughts occurred from 1895 to 2016 (clustering in the 1920s–1930s and post-2000), events most strongly linked with the leading precipitation mode and internal atmospheric variability. The frequency of landfalling atmospheric rivers south of 40°N is sharply reduced during coastal droughts but not north of this boundary, where their frequency is more strongly influenced by the dipole. The lack of a consistent pattern of SST forcing during coastal droughts suggests little potential for skillful seasonal predictions. However, their tendency to cluster in time and the impact of warming during recent droughts may help inform decadal and longer-term drought risks

The Curious Case of Projected Twenty-First-Century Drying but Greening in the American West

Climate models project significant twenty-first-century declines in water availability over the American West from anthropogenic warming. However, the physical mechanisms underpinning this response are poorly characterized, as are the uncertainties from vegetation’s modulation of evaporative losses. To understand the drivers and uncertainties of future hydroclimate in the American West, a 35-member single model ensemble is used to examine the response of summer soil moisture and runoff to anthropogenic forcing. Widespread dry season soil moisture declines occur across the region despite increases in total water-year precipitation and ubiquitous increases in plant water-use efficiency. These modeled soil moisture declines are initially forced by significant snowpack losses that directly diminish summer soil water, even in regions where water-year precipitation increases. When snowpack priming is coupled with a warming- and CO2-induced shift in phenology and increased primary production, widespread increases in leaf area further reduces summer soil moisture and runoff by outpacing decreased stomatal conductance from high CO2. The net effects lead to the co-occurrence of both a “greener” and “drier” future across the western United States. Because simulated vegetation exerts a large influence on predicted changes in water availability in the American West, these findings highlight the importance of reducing the substantial uncertainties in the ecological processes increasingly incorporated into numerical Earth system models

Disentangling the Regional Climate Impacts of Competing Vegetation Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO₂

Biophysical vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) affect regional hydroclimate through two competing mechanisms. Higher CO(2) increases leaf area (LAI), thereby increasing transpiration and water losses. Simultaneously, elevated CO(2) reduces stomatal conductance and transpiration, thereby increasing rootzone soil moisture. Which mechanism dominates in the future is highly uncertain, partly because these two processes are difficult to explicitly separate within dynamic vegetation models. We address this challenge by using the GISS ModelE global climate model to conduct a novel set of idealized 2×CO(2) sensitivity experiments to: evaluate the total vegetation biophysical contribution to regional climate change under high CO(2); and quantify the separate contributions of enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance to regional hydroclimate responses. We find that increased LAI exacerbates soil moisture deficits across the sub‐tropics and more water‐limited regions, but also attenuates warming by ∼0.5–1°C in the US Southwest, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and northern South America. Reduced stomatal conductance effects contribute ∼1°C of summertime warming. For some regions, enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance produce nonlinear and either competing or mutually amplifying hydroclimate responses. In northeastern Australia, these effects combine to exacerbate radiation‐forced warming and contribute to year‐round water limitation. Conversely, at higher latitudes these combined effects result in less warming than would otherwise be predicted due to nonlinear responses. These results highlight substantial regional variation in CO(2)‐driven vegetation responses and the importance of improving model representations of these processes to better quantify regional hydroclimate impacts

West Nile Virus and High Death Rate in American Crows

We document effects of West Nile virus (WNV) on American Crows. More than two thirds of our crows died of WNV infection, peaking when the proportion of infected mosquitoes at roosts was greatest. WNV antibody prevalence in crows was low. Local ecologic effects can be dramatic as WNV inhabits new areas

Blue Water Trade-Offs With Vegetation in a CO2-Enriched Climate

Present and future freshwater availability and drought risks are physically tied to the responses of surface vegetation to increasing CO2. A single-model large ensemble identifies the occurrence of colocated warming- and CO2-induced leaf area index increases with summer soil moisture declines. This pattern of “greening” and “drying,” which occurs over 42% of global vegetated land area, is largely attributable to changes in the partitioning of precipitation at the land surface away from runoff and toward terrestrial vegetation ecosystems. Changes in runoff and ecosystem partitioning are inversely related, with changes in runoff partitioning being governed by changes in precipitation (mean and extremes) and ecosystem partitioning being governed by ecosystem water use and surface resistance to evapotranspiration (ET). Projections show that warming-influenced and CO2-enriched terrestrial vegetation ecosystems use water that historically would have been partitioned to runoff over 48% of global vegetated land areas, largely in Western North America, the Amazon, and Europe, many of the same regions with colocated greening and drying. These results have implications for how water available for people will change in response to anthropogenic warming and raise important questions about model representations of vegetation water responses to high CO2

Acoustic Signal Applications in Detection and Management of Rhynchophorus spp. in Fruit-Crops and Ornamental Palms

Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Dryophthoridae) is an economically important, internally feeding pest of ornamental and fruit-producing palms in many subtropical regions. A related weevil, Rhynchophorus cruentatus (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Dryophthoridae), is an internally feeding palm pest in the southeastern USA. Acoustic methods for detection of early instars hidden in palms in field environments have been investigated for both species. Acoustic methods also have been used to examine the effectiveness of physical, biological, and other control treatments. This report addresses several physical, physiological, and behavioral factors that influence the spectral and temporal patterns of sounds produced by palm weevil larvae under different laboratory and field experiment conditions, which must be considered carefully in interpreting larval sound production. Such factors include the leakage of fluid from the palm tree tissues into tunnels scraped out by larvae as they move and feed within the tree trunk, as well as occurrences of molting between periods of feeding activity, and frequency-dependent damping that distorts signals as the distance between insects and sensors increases. Methods are discussed that combine effects of environmental, physiological, and behavioral variability to facilitate reliable interpretations of Rhynchophorus and other insect larval acoustic activity in hidden environments.Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Dryophthoridae) es una plaga económicamente importante que se alimenta internamente de palmeras ornamentales y frutícolas en muchas regiones subtropicales. Un gorgojo relacionado, Rhynchophorus cruentatus (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Dryophthoridae), es una plaga de la palma que se alimenta internamente en el sureste de los EE. UU. Métodos acústicos para la detección de estadios tempranos escondidos en palmas en ambientes de campo han sido investigados para ambas especies. Los métodos acústicos también se han utilizado para examinar la efectividad de los tratamientos físicos, biológicos y otros tratamientos de control. Este informe aborda varios factores físicos, fisiológicos y de comportamiento que influyen en los patrones espectrales y temporales de los sonidos producidos por las larvas del gorgojo de la palma en diferentes condiciones de laboratorio y experimentos de campo, que deben considerarse cuidadosamente al interpretar la producción del sonido larval. Tales factores incluyen la fuga de líquido de los tejidos de la palmera hacia túneles raspados por las larvas a medida que se mueven y se alimentan dentro del tronco del árbol, así como las ocurrencias de las mudas entre los períodos de actividad de alimentación y la amortiguación dependiente de la frecuencia que distorsiona las señales al aumentar la distancia entre los insectos y los sensores aumenta. Se discuten los métodos que combinan los efectos de la variabilidad ambiental, fisiológica y de comportamiento para facilitar interpretaciones confiables de la actividad acústica de larvas de Rhynchophorus y otros insectos en ambientes ocultos.We thank the Laboratory of Plant Pathology, University of Alicante, Glen Biotech S. L., the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, the Municipality of Elche, The Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, and the Malaysia Ministry of Higher Education for funding assistance

The 2016 Southeastern U.S. Drought: An Extreme Departure From Centennial Wetting and Cooling

The fall 2016 drought in the southeastern United States (SE U.S.) appeared exceptional based on its widespread impacts, but the current monitoring framework that only extends from 1979 to present does not readily facilitate evaluation of soil-moisture anomalies in a centennial context. A new method to extend monthly gridded soil-moisture estimates back to 1895 is developed, indicating that since 1895, October–November 2016 soil moisture (0–200 cm) in the SE U.S. was likely the second lowest on record, behind 1954. This severe drought developed rapidly and was brought on by low September–November precipitation and record-high September–November daily maximum temperatures (Tmax). Record-high Tmax drove record-high atmospheric moisture demand, accounting for 28% of the October–November 2016 soil-moisture anomaly. Drought and heat in fall 2016 contrasted with 20th century wetting and cooling in the region but resembled conditions more common from 1895–1956. Dynamically, the exceptional drying in fall 2016 was driven by anomalous ridging over the central United States that reduced south-southwesterly moisture transports into the SE U.S. by approximately 75%. These circulation anomalies were partly promoted by a moderate La Niña and warmth in the tropical Atlantic, but these processes accounted for very little of the SE U.S. drying in fall 2016, implying a large role for internal atmospheric variability. The extended analysis back to 1895 indicates that SE U.S. droughts as strong as the 2016 event are more likely than indicated from a shorter 60 year perspective and continued multidecadal swings in precipitation may combine with future warming to further enhance the likelihood of such events

Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy–model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy–model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy–model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections

Investigating the Causes of Increased Twentieth-Century Fall Precipitation over the Southeastern United States

Much of the eastern United States experienced increased precipitation over the twentieth century. Characterizing these trends and their causes is critical for assessing future hydroclimate risks. Here, U.S. precipitation trends are analyzed for 1895–2016, revealing that fall precipitation in the southeastern region north of the Gulf of Mexico (SE-Gulf) increased by nearly 40%, primarily increasing after the mid-1900s. Because fall is the climatological dry season in the SE-Gulf and precipitation in other seasons changed insignificantly, the seasonal precipitation cycle diminished substantially. The increase in SE-Gulf fall precipitation was caused by increased southerly moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, which was almost entirely driven by stronger winds associated with enhanced anticyclonic circulation west of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) and not by increases in specific humidity. Atmospheric models forced by observed SSTs and fully coupled models forced by historical anthropogenic forcing do not robustly simulate twentieth-century fall wetting in the SE-Gulf. SST-forced atmospheric models do simulate an intensified anticyclonic low-level circulation around the NASH, but the modeled intensification occurred farther west than observed. CMIP5 analyses suggest an increased likelihood of positive SE-Gulf fall precipitation trends given historical and future GHG forcing. Nevertheless, individual model simulations (both SST forced and fully coupled) only very rarely produce the observed magnitude of the SE-Gulf fall precipitation trend. Further research into model representation of the western ridge of the fall NASH is needed, which will help us to better predict whether twentieth-century increases in SE-Gulf fall precipitation will persist into the future

Disentangling the Regional Climate Impacts of Competing Vegetation Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO2

Biophysical vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect regional hydroclimate through two competing mechanisms. Higher CO2 increases leaf area (LAI), thereby increasing transpiration and water losses. Simultaneously, elevated CO2 reduces stomatal conductance and transpiration, thereby increasing rootzone soil moisture. Which mechanism dominates in the future is highly uncertain, partly because these two processes are difficult to explicitly separate within dynamic vegetation models. We address this challenge by using the GISS ModelE global climate model to conduct a novel set of idealized 2×CO2 sensitivity experiments to: evaluate the total vegetation biophysical contribution to regional climate change under high CO2; and quantify the separate contributions of enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance to regional hydroclimate responses. We find that increased LAI exacerbates soil moisture deficits across the sub-tropics and more water-limited regions, but also attenuates warming by ∼0.5–1°C in the US Southwest, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and northern South America. Reduced stomatal conductance effects contribute ∼1°C of summertime warming. For some regions, enhanced LAI and reduced stomatal conductance produce nonlinear and either competing or mutually amplifying hydroclimate responses. In northeastern Australia, these effects combine to exacerbate radiation-forced warming and contribute to year-round water limitation. Conversely, at higher latitudes these combined effects result in less warming than would otherwise be predicted due to nonlinear responses. These results highlight substantial regional variation in CO2-driven vegetation responses and the importance of improving model representations of these processes to better quantify regional hydroclimate impacts