Installment Three of "Creating a Sustainable Food Future": Achieving Replacement Level Fertility

How can the world adequately feed more than 9 billion people by 2050 in a manner that advances economic development and reduces pressure on the environment? This is one of the paramount questions the world faces over the next four decades. Answering it requires a "great balancing act" of three needs -- each of which must be simultaneously met. First, the world needs to close the gap between the food available today and that needed by 2050. Second, the world needs agriculture to contribute to inclusive economic and social development. Third, the world needs to reduce agriculture's impact on the environment. The forthcoming 2013-14 World Resources Report, Creating a Sustainable Food Future, seeks to answer this question by proposing a menu of solutions that can achieve the great balancing act. "Achieving Replacement Level Fertility" profiles one of these solutions or "menu items," and is an installment in a series of working papers leading up to the World Resources Report. Since the 1980s, the World Resources Report has provided decisionmakers from government, business, and civil society with analyses and insights on major issues at the nexus of development and the environment. For more information about the World Resources Report and to access previous installments and editions, visit www.worldresourcesreport.or

Sniffer ER26. Model validation using monitored data from Scottish poultry farms

The report outlines the bespoke monitoring conducted for the validation of the SCAIL tool in order to better assess that the tool provides realistic yet conservative results. Two farm sites were selected for the validation monitoring. The study collected data for odour, ammonia and airborne particulate data as well as recording on-site meteorological information. In conclusion the SCAIL-Agriculture model was found to broadly meet recognised acceptability criteria for the prediction of ammonia, PM10 and odour concentration arising from farm buildings. There are however a number of areas where further research could clearly improve the assessment of agricultural sources

The Importance of Capturing Local Measurement-Driven Adjustment of Modelled <i>j</i>(NO₂)

Accurate photolysis rate constants are essential for simulation of local air quality but their values can vary substantially with changes in local meteorological and surface conditions. This study demonstrates the use of local radiometer measurements for capturing via hourly measurement-driven adjustment factors (MDAF) the temporal resolution needed to adjust clear-sky or cloud-free model estimates of j(NO2). Measurements simultaneously at two sites in the UK (Auchencorth Moss and Manchester) showed that TUV (v5.3) model estimates of j(NO2)↓ in cloud-free conditions (used as an example of modelled j-values) were, on average, approximately 45% larger than measured j(NO2)↓, which would lead to substantial model bias in the absence of local adjustment. At Auchencorth Moss, MDAF values based on 4π and 2π radiometer inlets generally agreed very well with each other (<6% average difference). However, under conditions of particularly high surface albedo (such as snow cover), increased upwelling local diffuse radiation yielded an MDAF derived using total radiation (sum of ↓ and ↑ components) ~40% larger than the MDAF derived using only ↓ radiation. The study has demonstrated: (1) the magnitude of potential impact of local conditions—principally cloud cover, but also changes in surface albedo—on assumed j-values; (2) that whilst annual mean MDAF values are similar at Auchencorth Moss and Manchester, there is no contemporaneous correlation between them at hourly resolution; hence MDAF values derived at one site cannot readily be applied at another site. These data illustrate the need to routinely deploy long-term radiometer measurements alongside compositional measurements to support atmospheric chemistry modelling

Science and Ideology in Economic, Political, and Social Thought

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, then by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences. The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing

Risk algorithm using serial biomarker measurements doubles the number of screen-detected cancers compared with a single-threshold rule in the United Kingdom collaborative trial of ovarian cancer screening

PURPOSE: Cancer screening strategies have commonly adopted single-biomarker thresholds to identify abnormality. We investigated the impact of serial biomarker change interpreted through a risk algorithm on cancer detection rates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 46,237 women, age 50 years or older underwent incidence screening by using the multimodal strategy (MMS) in which annual serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) was interpreted with the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA). Women were triaged by the ROCA: normal risk, returned to annual screening; intermediate risk, repeat CA-125; and elevated risk, repeat CA-125 and transvaginal ultrasound. Women with persistently increased risk were clinically evaluated. All participants were followed through national cancer and/or death registries. Performance characteristics of a single-threshold rule and the ROCA were compared by using receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: After 296,911 women-years of annual incidence screening, 640 women underwent surgery. Of those, 133 had primary invasive epithelial ovarian or tubal cancers (iEOCs). In all, 22 interval iEOCs occurred within 1 year of screening, of which one was detected by ROCA but was managed conservatively after clinical assessment. The sensitivity and specificity of MMS for detection of iEOCs were 85.8% (95% CI, 79.3% to 90.9%) and 99.8% (95% CI, 99.8% to 99.8%), respectively, with 4.8 surgeries per iEOC. ROCA alone detected 87.1% (135 of 155) of the iEOCs. Using fixed CA-125 cutoffs at the last annual screen of more than 35, more than 30, and more than 22 U/mL would have identified 41.3% (64 of 155), 48.4% (75 of 155), and 66.5% (103 of 155), respectively. The area under the curve for ROCA (0.915) was significantly (P = .0027) higher than that for a single-threshold rule (0.869). CONCLUSION: Screening by using ROCA doubled the number of screen-detected iEOCs compared with a fixed cutoff. In the context of cancer screening, reliance on predefined single-threshold rules may result in biomarkers of value being discarded

Observational study of regional aortic size referenced to body size: production of a cardiovascular magnetic resonance nomogram

Background: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is regarded as the gold standard for clinical assessment of the aorta, but normal dimensions are usually referenced to echocardiographic and computed tomography data and no large CMR normal reference range exists. As a result we aimed to 1) produce a normal CMR reference range of aortic diameters and 2) investigate the relationship between regional aortic size and body surface area (BSA) in a large group of healthy subjects with no vascular risk factors. Methods: 447 subjects (208 male, aged 19–70 years) without identifiable cardiac risk factors (BMI range 15.7–52.6 kg/m2) underwent CMR at 1.5 T to determine aortic diameter at three levels: the ascending aorta (Ao) and proximal descending aorta (PDA) at the level of the pulmonary artery, and the abdominal aorta (DDA), at a level 12 cm distal to the PDA. In addition, 201 of these subjects had aortic root imaging, allowing for measurements at the level of the aortic valve annulus (AV), aortic sinuses and sinotubular junction (STJ). Results: Normal diameters (mean ±2 SD) were; AV annulus male(♂) 24.4 ± 5.4, female (♀) 21.0 ± 3.6 mm, aortic sinus♂32.4 ± 7.7, ♀27.6 ± 5.8 mm, ST-junction ♂25.0 ± 7.4, ♀21.8 ± 5.4 mm, Ao ♂26.7 ± 7.7, ♀25.5 ± 7.4 mm, PDA ♂20.6 ± 5.6, +18.9 ± 4.0 mm, DDA ♂17.6 ± 5.1, ♀16.4 ± 4.0 mm. Aortic root and thoracic aortic diameters increased at all levels measured with BSA. No gender difference was seen in the degree of dilatation with increasing BSA (p > 0.5 for all analyses). Conclusion: Across both genders, increasing body size is characterized by a modest degree of aortic dilatation, even in the absence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors

A systematic approach to diverse, lead-like scaffolds from α,α-disubstituted amino acids.

A powerful strategy for the efficient lead-oriented synthesis of novel molecular scaffolds is demonstrated. Twenty two scaffolds were prepared from just four α-amino acid-derived building blocks and a toolkit of six connective reactions. Importantly, each individual scaffold has the ability to specifically target lead-like chemical space