Does Bail Reform Increase Crime? An Empirical Assessment of the Public Safety Implications of Bail Reform in Cook County, Illinois

Recently bail reform issues have been in the news across the country, as concerns about fair treatment of defendants and possible public safety risks from expanding pretrial release have collided. These issues involve important empirical questions, including whether releasing more defendants before trial leads to additional crimes. An opportunity to investigate this public safety issue has developed in Chicago, our nation’s third largest city. There, the Office of the Chief Judge of the Cook County Courts adopted new bail reform measures in September 2017 and reviewed them empirically in May 2019. Cook County’s Bail Reform Study concluded that the new procedures had released many more defendants before trial without any concomitant increase in crime. This article disputes the Study’s conclusions. This article explains that, contrary to the Study’s assertions, the new changes to pretrial release procedures appear to have led to a substantial increase in crimes committed by pretrial releasees in Cook County. Properly measured and estimated, after more generous release procedures were put in place, the number of released defendants charged with committing new crimes increased by 45%. And, more concerning, the number of pretrial releasees charged with committing new violent crimes increased by an estimated 33%. In addition, as reported by the Chicago Tribune, the Study’s data appears to undercount the number of releasees charged with new violent crimes; and a substantial number of aggravated domestic violence prosecutions prosecutors dropped after the changes, presumably because batterers were able to more frequently obtain release and intimidate their victims into not pursuing charges. These public safety concerns call into question whether the bail “reform” measures implemented in Cook County were cost-beneficial. And because Cook County’s procedures are state-of-the-art and track those being implemented in many parts of the country, Cook County’s experience suggests that other jurisdictions may similarly be suffering increases in crime due to bail reform

Understanding the cell phone effect on vehicle fatalities: a Bayesian view

Journal ArticleThis article examines the potential effect of various factors on motor vehicle fatality rates using a rich set of panel data and classical regression analysis combined with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis, Bayesian Model Averaging and Stochastic Search Variable Selection procedures. The variables examined in the models include traditional motor vehicle and 15 socioeconomic factors. In addition, the models address the effects of cell phone usage on such accidents. The use of both classical and Bayesian techniques diminish the model and parameter uncertainties which afflict more conventional modelling methods which rely on only one of the two methods

What Caused the 2016 Chicago Homicide Spike? An Empirical Examination of the \u27ACLU Effect\u27 and the Role of Stop and Frisks in Preventing Gun Violence

Homicides increased dramatically in Chicago in 2016. In 2015, 480 Chicago residents were killed. The next year, 754 were killed–274 more homicide victims, tragically producing an extraordinary 58% increase in a single year. This article attempts to unravel what happened.This article provides empirical evidence that the reduction in stop and frisks by the Chicago Police Department beginning around December 2015 was responsible for the homicide spike that started immediately thereafter. The sharp decline in the number of stop and frisks is a strong candidate for the causal factor, particularly since the timing of the homicide spike so perfectly coincides with the spike. Regression analysis of the homicide spike and related shooting crimes identifies the stop and frisk variable as the likely cause. The results are highly statistically significant and robust over a large number of alternative specifications. And a qualitative review for possible “omitted variables” in the regression equations fails to identify any other plausible candidates that fit the data as well as the decline in stop and frisks.Our regression equations permit quantification of the costs of the decline in stop and frisks. Because of fewer stop and frisks in 2016, it appears that (conservatively calculating) approximately 239 additional victims were killed and 1129 additional shootings occurred in that year alone. And these tremendous costs are not evenly distributed, but rather are concentrated among Chicago’s African-American and Hispanic communities.The most likely explanation for the fall in stop and frisks that appears to have triggered the homicide spike is a consent decree entered into by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) with the Chicago Police Department (CPD). Accordingly, modifications to that consent decree may be appropriate.More broadly, these findings shed important light on the on-going national debate about stop and frisk policies. The fact that America’s “Second City” suffered so badly from a decline in stop and frisks suggests that the arguably contrary experience in New York City may be an anomaly. The costs of crime — and particularly gun crimes — are too significant to avoid considering every possible measure for reducing the toll. The evidence gathered here suggests that stop and frisk policies may be truly lifesaving measures that have to be considered as part of any effective law enforcement response to gun violence

Forecasting the probability of failure of Thailand's financial companies in the Asian financial crisis

Journal ArticleThe financial crisis in Southeast Asia has gained widespread attention.1 In particular, the financial problems in Thailand since early February 1997 have been a major focus of this attention. Even enthusiasts for the McKinnon-Shaw arguments for financial liberalization (eliminating financial repression) to accelerate economic development must be wary of liberalization and seek the knowledge to limit financial crises, if, as critics say, liberalization contributes to developing countries' periodic costs on the order of 10%-20%, even 50%, of gross domestic product (GDP) to recover from banking crises

Cell phone effect on motor vehicle fatality rates: a Bayesian and classical econometric evaluation

ManuscriptThis paper examines the potential effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates normalized for other driving related and socioeconomic factors. The model used is nonlinear so as to address both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones. The model is evaluated using classical methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA). The use of both classical and Bayesian methods diminishes the model and parameter uncertainties which afflict more conventional modeling methods which rely on only one of the two methods. The results indicate the presence of both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates depending on the volume of cell phone subscribers in existence

Sturdy Inference: A Bayesian Analysis of U.S. Motorcycle Helmet Laws

Motorcycle related fatalities continue to be a major concern for public health officials, economists, and policy makers interested in such matters. In 2006, 3% of all motor vehicles registered in the United States were 2-3 wheelers (motorcycle type vehicles), while riders of these vehicles accounted for 11% of vehicle related deaths. Such a disproportionate number of fatalities associated with motorcycles is certainly grounds for concern.Most studies of motorcycle fatalities attribute deaths to the avoidance of wearing helmets and the lack of helmet laws, speed, and alcohol usage. This study makes use of a rich panel data set for the period 1980 to 2010 by state and the District of Columbia to examine these factors and others. It is the first study to differentiate between the effects of universal and partial helmet laws on motorcycle fatalities. It also accounts for the effects of cell phone use, alcohol consumption, and suicidal propensities on these crashes after adjusting for a whole host of socioeconomic and driving related factors. The analysis is conducted using a new Bayesian technique, which examines the sturdiness of regression coefficients. This new method uses statistics referred to as S-values that addresses both estimation and model ambiguity. Results indicate that the variables we focus on, i.e., cell phones, alcohol consumption, and helmet laws affect motorcycle fatalities. Further, universal helmet laws appear to have a larger effect on such fatalities than partial helmet laws

Determinants of motor vehicle fatalities using classical specification testing and Bayesian sensitivity methods

Working PaperThis paper uses classical regression methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) to addresses the effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates so as to examine the potential of net life-taking and life-saving effects. The models adjust for a time trend (YEAR), the maximum blood alcohol concentration legislation (BAC) required for drunk driving arrests, annual inspection (ANNUAL), the maximum posted rural speed limit (SPEED_RU),a dummy variable indicating the presence of a seat belt law (BELT), per capita consumption of beer (BEER), the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA), the percentage of males aged 16-24 relative to the population of age 16 and over (YOUNG), and various measures of cell phone subscribers (CELL, CELLSQ, CELLCUBE). The measures of cell phones are allowed to enter the model in a nonlinear manner so as to examine the potential of non-monotonic effects of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates as suggested by Loeb et al. (forthcoming). The models are estimated using panel data for all fifty states and the District of Columbia for the years 1980 to 2004. The classical and Bayesian estimates correspond well with each other

Recruitment in Qualitative Public Health Research: Lessons Learned During Dissertation Sample Recruitment

The purpose of this article is to describe the recruitment challenges faced by eight public health graduate students when conducting qualitative dissertation research. The authors summarize their dissertation studies, describe recruitment challenges, and provide strategies and recommendations used to address challenges. The authors identified twelve recruitment issues which they grouped into three major categories: (a) obtaining consent; (b) working with gatekeepers; and (c) accessing participants. The authors propose three recommendations to consider in participant recruitment, which are: (a) collaborate with gatekeepers; (b) use additional recruitment tools; and (c) understand your target population. The compilation of experiences from multiple graduate students from a diverse selection of topics provides valuable insight and resources when planning a qualitative research study in the field of public health

Duchamp's Erotic Stereoscopic Exercises

This article explores certain links between medicine and art, with regard to their use of stereoscopy. I highlight a work by the artist Marcel Duchamp (the ready-made Stéréoscopie a la Main) and stereoscopic cards used in ophthalmic medicine. Both instances involve the drawing of graphic marks over previously existing stereoscopic cards. This similarity between Stéréoscopie a la Main and stereoscopic cards is echoed in the form of "stereoscopic exercises." Stereoscopic exercises were prescribed by doctors to be performed with the stereoscope as early as 1864. Stereoscopic cards were widely diffused in the 19th century, often promoted as "stay-at-home travel." It was over such kinds of materials that both Marcel Duchamp and doctors of ophthalmic medicine drew their graphic marks. I explore Duchamp's Stéréoscopie a la Main as a hypothetical basis for stereoscopic exercises of different types, proposing that this rectified ready-made is the locus for erotic stereoscopic exercises.Este artigo busca explorar certos elos entre a medicina e a arte por meio da estereoscopia. Destaca-se uma obra do artista Marcel Duchamp (o ready-made Stéréoscopie a la Main) e cartões estereoscópicos usados na oftalmologia. As duas instâncias envolvem o desenho de marcas gráficas sobre cartões estereoscópicos pré-existentes. A similaridade entre Stéréoscopie a la Main e os ditos cartões ecoa também na forma dos exercícios estereoscópicos. O cartão estereoscópico foi amplamente difundido na segunda metade do séc. XIX, frequentemente na forma da "viagem sem sair de casa." Foi sobre esse tipo de material que tanto médicos quanto Marcel Duchamp desenharam suas marcas. Explora-se a obra Stéréoscopie a la Main como um sítio hipotético para uma espécie de exercício, propondo que tal ready-made retificado seja um lugar para exercícios estereoscópicos eróticos

Changes in medication safety indicators in England throughout the covid-19 pandemic using OpenSAFELY: population based, retrospective cohort study of 57 million patients using federated analytics

Objective: To implement complex, PINCER (pharmacist led information technology intervention) prescribing indicators, on a national scale with general practice data to describe the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on safe prescribing.Design: Population based, retrospective cohort study using federated analytics.Setting: Electronic general practice health record data from 56.8 million NHS patients by use of the OpenSAFELY platform, with the approval of the National Health Service (NHS) England.Participants: NHS patients (aged 18-120 years) who were alive and registered at a general practice that used TPP or EMIS computer systems and were recorded as at risk of at least one potentially hazardous PINCER indicator.Main outcome measure: Between 1 September 2019 and 1 September 2021, monthly trends and between practice variation for compliance with 13 PINCER indicators, as calculated on the first of every month, were reported. Prescriptions that do not adhere to these indicators are potentially hazardous and can cause gastrointestinal bleeds; are cautioned against in specific conditions (specifically heart failure, asthma, and chronic renal failure); or require blood test monitoring. The percentage for each indicator is formed of a numerator of patients deemed to be at risk of a potentially hazardous prescribing event and the denominator is of patients for which assessment of the indicator is clinically meaningful. Higher indicator percentages represent potentially poorer performance on medication safety.Results: The PINCER indicators were successfully implemented across general practice data for 56.8 million patient records from 6367 practices in OpenSAFELY. Hazardous prescribing remained largely unchanged during the covid-19 pandemic, with no evidence of increases in indicators of harm as captured by the PINCER indicators. The percentage of patients at risk of potentially hazardous prescribing, as defined by each PINCER indicator, at mean quarter 1 (Q1) 2020 (representing before the pandemic) ranged from 1.11% (age ≥65 years and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) to 36.20% (amiodarone and no thyroid function test), while Q1 2021 (representing after the pandemic) percentages ranged from 0.75% (age ≥65 years and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) to 39.23% (amiodarone and no thyroid function test). Transient delays occurred in blood test monitoring for some medications, particularly angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (where blood monitoring worsened from a mean of 5.16% in Q1 2020 to 12.14% in Q1 2021, and began to recover in June 2021). All indicators substantially recovered by September 2021. We identified 1 813 058 patients (3.1%) at risk of at least one potentially hazardous prescribing event.Conclusion: NHS data from general practices can be analysed at national scale to generate insights into service delivery. Potentially hazardous prescribing was largely unaffected by the covid-19 pandemic in primary care health records in England