Risk-Smoothing Across Time and the Demand for Inventories: A Mean-Variance Approach

The standard production smoothing model of inventory demand cannot represent the added incentives for smoothing risks or explain the impact of market shocks that independently affect expectations and uncertainty. Those limitations are overcome by modeling inventory demand as a problem in deterministic optimal control, with the risk-averse firm maximizing utility that is a separable function of the mean and variance of returns and the firm controlling on two decision variables, production and inventory investment. Support for the mean-variance approach comes from regressions using Survey of Professional Forecasters data to show how changes in the mean forecasts of the GDP price deflator and changes in the disagreement among deflator forecasts can explain changes in aggregate inventory investment over time. Further support comes from the ability of the model to explain the excess volatility of industry output over sales—a fact at odds with the production smoothing theory.

Cinema advertising and the Sea Witch ‘Lost Island’ film (1965)

Cinema advertising films have for many decades constituted an important element of British cinema programmes, yet they remain relatively under-researched. This article examines the production, distribution and reception of one such film, a 90-second mini-epic called ‘Lost Island’, which was made in 1965 to promote Sea Witch hair dyes. As well as outlining the technological and experiential aspects of the cinema and cinemagoing that continued to make film an attractive medium for advertisers even after the advent of mass television ownership, the article explores the success of the ‘Lost Island’ film and its eventual transmission on commercial television in the United Kingdom. As such, an investigation of ‘Lost Island’ allows for an assessment of the appeal of the cinema in the mid-1960s, and also the appeal of the cinema relative to other advertising media in the same period

Third Day of the Heart

I want to take on the theme of this conference and talk to you about the third day of the heart, the third day of the heart. Exodus 19:1 from the New King James Version

Investigation of the transient fuel preburner manifold and combustor

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model with finite rate reactions, FDNS, was developed to study the start transient of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) fuel preburner (FPB). FDNS is a time accurate, pressure based CFD code. An upwind scheme was employed for spatial discretization. The upwind scheme was based on second and fourth order central differencing with adaptive artificial dissipation. A state of the art two-equation k-epsilon (T) turbulence model was employed for the turbulence calculation. A Pade' Rational Solution (PARASOL) chemistry algorithm was coupled with the point implicit procedure. FDNS was benchmarked with three well documented experiments: a confined swirling coaxial jet, a non-reactive ramjet dump combustor, and a reactive ramjet dump combustor. Excellent comparisons were obtained for the benchmark cases. The code was then used to study the start transient of an axisymmetric SSME fuel preburner. Predicted transient operation of the preburner agrees well with experiment. Furthermore, it was also found that an appreciable amount of unburned oxygen entered the turbine stages

Wrestling with Decadence: The Touchables (1968) and Swinging London Cinema of the 1960s

The primary touchstones when considering the relationship between decadence and cinema are probably those films in closest chronological proximity to the emergence of the decadent tradition in literature and the visual arts in the fin-de-siècle period of the late nineteenth century – the same historical moment in which cinema itself was born. Hollywood cinema of the pre-sound era spanning the 1890s to the 1920s certainly offers no shortage of figures whose work is amenable to being categorized as decadent, including directors such as Cecil B. DeMille or Erich Von Stroheim, or stars such as Theda Bara or Louise Brooks (figures whose vampishness would eventually transmogrify into the spider women and femmes fatales of 40s film noir). Alternately, one might turn to representations of particular historical moments seen as decadent, such as the fall of Babylon or the decline of Rome, or in the twentieth century, the Weimar era and its tragic aftermath: the ‘divine decadence’ Liza Minnelli’s Sally Bowles attributes to her green nail polish in Cabaret (1972) that was also on dark display in films like Luchino Visconti’s The Damned (1969) and Liliana Caviani’s The Night Porter (1974), both decried by Susan Sontag for espousing a sense of perverse decadent glamour. Or perhaps the relationship between cinema and decadence might be most effectively conceptualized through the aesthetic and narrative obsessions of particular filmmakers, possible examples including the likes of Visconti, Josef von Sternberg, Federico Fellini, or David Lynch, whose respective oeuvres are coloured by different kinds of engagement with decadent images and ideas. &nbsp

Integrated Arable Farming Systems and their potential uptake in the UK

Integrated Arable Farming Systems are examined from the perspective of the farmer considering the use of such techniques, and data are presented which suggest that the uptake of the approach may expose the manager to a greater degree of risk. Observations are made about the possible uptake of such systems in the UK and the implications this may have for agricultural and environmental policy in general

Die sensorische Lateralität als Indikator für emotionale und kognitive Reaktionen auf Umweltreize beim Tier. The use of sensory laterality for indicating emotional and cognitive reactions on environmental stimuli in animals

Zusammenfassung Viele Tiere zeigen eine eindeutige sensorische Lateralität, sprich sie benutzen bevorzugt ein Auge, ein Ohr, oder eine Nüster zur Aufnahme von Sinneseindrücken. Dies korreliert in den meisten Fällen nicht mit der motorischen Lateralität, sondern wird viel mehr durch die einseitige Verarbeitung von Informationen in den jeweiligen Gehirnhemisphären bedingt. So werden emotionale Reaktionen von der rechten, reaktiven Gehirnhemisphäre und rationale Reaktionen von der linken, kognitiven Gehirnhemisphäre gesteuert. Da die Gehirnhälften zum Großen Teil mit den kontrolateralen Sinnesorganen verbunden sind lässt die Seite mit welcher Sinneseindrücke aufgenommen werden Schlüsse auf deren Informationsgehalt zu. So zeigen Tiere bei linksseitiger Aufnahme von Sinneseindrücken vermehrt reaktive, emotionalen Reaktionen, wie etwa bei Angst oder freudige Erregung, und bei rechtsseitig aufgenommene Sinneseindrücke eher rationales, gesteuertes Verhalten. Zudem verstärkt sich die sensorische Lateralität wenn Tiere Stress erfahren, sprich wenn sie wiederholt mit Situationen anthropogenen oder natürlichen Ursprungs konfrontiert werden denen sie nicht gewachsen sind, wie etwa bei unpassenden Haltungs- und Trainingsbedingungen, oder bei unausweichlichem Raubtierdruck und sozialer Konkurrenz. Eine stark ausgeprägte, zunehmende sensorische Lateralität kann daher auf ein beeinträchtigtes Wohlergehen der Tiere hinweisen. Summary Many animals are lateralized when using sensory organs such as the eyes, ears or nostrils. Sensory laterality is not, as previously believed, caused by adjustment to motor laterality, but rather by one sided information processing in the particular brain hemispheres. While the right hemisphere predominantly analyses emotional information, the left hemisphere governs controlled rational, cognitive decisions. Since the brain hemispheres are largely connected with contralateral sensory organs, it is possible to infer how the information may be being interpreted by the side of preferred eye, ear or nostril used. The left eye usually dominates in emotional situations, i.e. fear or positive excitement, and the right eye in rational situations. Moreover, laterality increases when animals are stressed, e.g. when animals are confronted with anthropogenic or natural factors they can not handle, such as unsuitable housing or training conditions or unavoidable predation pressure and social competition. A strong or increasing laterality could therefore potentially indicate welfare issues

Perspectives of people experiencing homelessness with recent non-fatal street drug overdose on the Pharmacist and Homeless Outreach Engagement and Non-medical Independent prescribing Rx (PHOENIx) intervention

IntroductionIn Scotland, a third of all deaths of people experiencing homelessness (PExH) are street-drug-related, and less than half of their multiple physical- and mental health conditions are treated. New, holistic interventions are required to address these health inequalities. PHOENIx (Pharmacist Homeless Outreach Engagement and Non-medical Independent prescribing Rx) is delivered on outreach by National Health Service (NHS) pharmacist independent prescribers in partnership with third sector homelessness charity workers. We describe participant’s perspectives of PHOENIx.MethodsThis study aims to understand experiences of the PHOENIx intervention by participants recruited into the active arm of a pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT). Semi-structured in-person interviews explored participants’ evaluation of the intervention. In this study, the four components (coherence, cognitive participation, collective action, reflexive monitoring) of the Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) framework underpinned data collection and analyses.ResultsWe identified four themes that were interpreted within the NPT framework that describe participant evaluation of the PHOENIx intervention: differentiating the intervention from usual care (coherence), embedding connection and consistency in practice (cognitive participation), implementation of practical and emotional operational work (collective action), and lack of power and a commitment to long-term support (reflexive monitoring). Participants successfully engaged with the intervention. Facilitators for participant motivation included the relationship-based work created by the PHOENIx team. This included operational work to fulfil both the practical and emotional needs of participants. Barriers included concern regarding power imbalances within the sector, a lack of long-term support and the impact of the intervention concluding.ConclusionsFindings identify and describe participants’ evaluations of the PHOENIx intervention. NPT is a theoretical framework facilitating understanding of experiences, highlighting both facilitators and barriers to sustained engagement and investment. Our findings inform future developments regarding a subsequent definitive RCT of PHOENIx, despite challenges brought about by challenging micro and macro-economic and political landscapes

Sensory laterality in affiliative interactions in domestic horses and ponies (Equus caballus)

Many studies have been carried out into both motor and sensory laterality of horses in agonistic and stressful situations. Here we examine sensory laterality in affiliative interactions within four groups of domestic horses and ponies (N = 31), living in stable social groups, housed at a single complex close to Vienna, Austria, and demonstrate for the first time a significant population preference for the left side in affiliative approaches and interactions. No effects were observed for gender, rank, sociability, phenotype, group, or age. Our results suggest that right hemisphere specialization in horses is not limited to the processing of stressful or agonistic situations, but rather appears to be the norm for processing in all social interactions, as has been demonstrated in other species including chicks and a range of vertebrates. In domestic horses, hemispheric specialization for sensory input appears not to be based on a designation of positive versus negative, but more on the perceived need to respond quickly and appropriately in any given situation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe