Less Than 2 °C Warming by 2100 Unlikely.

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya's identity to develop a statistically-based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960-2010, including the UN's probabilistic population projections for all countries2-4, we develop a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for GDP per capita and carbon intensity. We find that the 90% interval for cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC's two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0-4.9°C, with median 3.2°C and a 5% (1%) chance that it will be less than 2°C (1.5°C). Population growth is not a major contributing factor. Our model is not a "business as usual" scenario, but rather is based on data which already show the effect of emission mitigation policies. Achieving the goal of less than 1.5°C warming will require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past

Moving up the sanitation ladder with the help of microfinance in urban Malawi

Abstract We carried out a stated preference survey in Malawi to examine whether access to microfinance for sanitation would significantly increase the proportion of households upgrading to improved pit latrines or alternative improved sanitation technologies (urine diverting dry toilet, fossa alterna, pour flush). We presented a range of sanitation options at local market prices, initially without and then with a real microfinance option, to 1,300 households sampled across 27 low-income urban settlements in the two largest cities, Lilongwe and Blantyre. When we gave respondents a microfinance option, the proportion of households stating an intention to install improved and unimproved pit latrines decreased significantly, while the proportion stating an intention to upgrade to alternative improved sanitation technologies increased significantly. However, households in the lowest wealth quintile were more likely to state a preference for unimproved pit latrines, suggesting that the benefits of microfinance for sanitation may not accrue equally across wealth strata. Organisations seeking to improve access to safely managed sanitation by promoting alternative sanitation technologies would succeed if households have access to affordable alternative sanitation technologies and microfinance for sanitation. However, poorer households would need more affordable improved sanitation technologies, flexible microfinance options and possibly targeted subsidies to gain access to safely managed sanitation.</jats:p

Garnet stability during crustal melting: implications for chemical mohometry and secular change in arc magmatism and continent formation

Understanding how new felsic crust is formed and subsequently evolves through time is critical to identifying the geodynamic regimes that have dominated various parts of Earth history, and have important implications for feedbacks between the lithosphere and biosphere, such as controlling the influx of continental detritus into the oceans. In recent years, several trace element-based geochemical proxies have been proposed to allow determination of paleo-crustal thicknesses, which have been calibrated primarily using data collected from modern-day arcs. The application of these proxies through deep time has revealed surprising results, including the suggestion that the mid-Proterozoic continents were atypically thin compared to those in the Archean and the Phanerozoic; however, a range of factors may influence commonly cited trace element ratios (e.g. Sr/Y) rather than just crustal depth, leading to additional and unexpected magnitudes of uncertainty. Here we perform geochemical modelling to deduce the effect of variable bulk-rock composition and geothermal gradient on the trace element signature of felsic melts generated in arc systems. Using a range of protoliths representative of deep arc crust, the results show that considerable care must be taken when analysing simple trace element ratios of granitoid melts and making direct interpretations of the pressure of crystallisation. In particular, changes in geothermal gradients and differences in arc basalt composition impart strong controls on the relative stability of garnet and plagioclase during metamorphism and partial melting, and wide ranges of Sr/Y and La/Yb may be produced in derivative felsic melts produced at the same crustal depth. The interpretation of mid-Proterozoic continental arcs being atypically thin may instead be an artefact of underestimation of the active geothermal gradient at the time of magma formation, which acts to reduce Sr/Y and La/Yb ratios, even in normal thickness (∼35–40 km) crust. Furthermore, we argue that the potentially garnet-free residua during the formation of mid-Proterozoic felsic magmas points to crust formation without lower crustal foundering, and thus, that this commonly invoked paradigm for formation of the continental crust may only be applicable to certain periods of Earth history

Constraints on the thermal evolution of metamorphic core complexes from the timing of high-pressure metamorphism on Naxos, Greece

Metamorphic core complexes are classically interpreted to have formed during crustal extension, although many also occur in compressional environments. New U–(Th)–Pb allanite and xenotime geochronologic data from the structurally highest Zas Unit (Cycladic Blueschist Unit) of the Naxos metamorphic core complex, Greece, integrated with pressure–temperature–time (P–T–t) histories, are incorporated into a thermal model to test the role of crustal thickening and extension in forming metamorphic core complexes. Metamorphism on Naxos is diachronous, with peak metamorphic conditions propagating down structural section over a ~30–35 m.y. period, from ca. 50 Ma to 15 Ma. At the highest structural level, the Zas Unit records blueschist-facies metamorphism (~14.5–19 kbar, 470–570 °C) at ca. 50 Ma, during northeast-directed subduction of the Adriatic continental margin. The Zas Unit was subsequently extruded toward the SW and thrust over more proximal continental margin and basement rocks (Koronos and Core units). This contractional episode resulted in crustal thickening and Barrovian metamorphism from ca. 40 Ma and reached peak kyanite-sillimanite–grade conditions of ~10–5 kbar and 600–730 °C at 20–15 Ma. Model P–T–t paths, assuming conductive relaxation of isotherms following overthrusting, are consistent with the clockwise P–T–t evolution. In contrast, extension results in exhumation and cooling of the crust, which is inconsistent with key components of the thermal evolution. Barrovian metamorphism on Naxos is therefore interpreted to have resulted from crustal thickening over a ~30–35 m.y. time period prior to extension, normal faulting, and rapid exhumation after a thermal climax at ca. 15 Ma

Effect of salbutamol on neuromuscular junction function and structure in a mouse model of DOK7 congenital myasthenia.

Congenital myasthenic syndromes (CMS) are characterized by fatigable muscle weakness resulting from impaired neuromuscular transmission. β2-adrenergic agonists are an effective treatment for DOK7-CMS. DOK7 is a component within the AGRN-LRP4-MUSK-DOK7 signalling pathway that is key for the formation and maintenance of the synaptic structure of the neuromuscular junction (NMJ). The precise mechanism of action of β2-adrenergic agonists at the NMJ is not fully understood. In this study, we investigated whether β2-adrenergic agonists improve both neurotransmission and structural integrity of the NMJ in a mouse model of DOK7-CMS. Ex-vivo electrophysiological techniques and microscopy of the NMJ were used to study the effect of salbutamol, a β2-adrenergic agonist, on synaptic structure and function. DOK7-CMS model mice displayed a severe phenotype with reduced weight gain and perinatal lethality. Salbutamol treatment improved weight gain and survival in DOK7 myasthenic mice. Model animals had fewer active NMJs, detectable by endplate recordings, compared with age-matched wild-type littermates. Salbutamol treatment increased the number of detectable NMJs during endplate recording. Correspondingly, model mice had fewer acetylcholine receptor-stained NMJs detected by fluorescent labelling, but following salbutamol treatment an increased number were detectable. The data demonstrate that salbutamol can prolong survival and increase NMJ number in a severe model of DOK7-CMS

Genetic Diversity of PCR-Positive, Culture-Negative and Culture-Positive Mycobacterium ulcerans Isolated from Buruli Ulcer Patients in Ghana.

Culture of Mycobacterium ulcerans from Buruli ulcer patients has very low sensitivity. Thus confirmation of M. ulcerans infection is primarily based on PCR directed against IS2404. In this study we compare the genotypes obtained by variable number of tandem repeat analysis of DNA from IS2404-PCR positive cultures with that obtained from IS2404 positive, culture-negative tissue. A significantly greater genetic heterogeneity was found among culture-negative samples compared with that found in cultured strains but a single genotype is over-represented in both sample sets. This study provides evidence that both the focal location of bacteria in a lesion as well as differences in the ability to culture a particular genotype may underlie the low sensitivity of culture. Though preliminary, data from this work also suggests that mycobacteria previously associated with fish disease (M. pseudoshottsii) may be pathogenic for humans

Expression of muscle anabolic and metabolic factors in mechanically loaded MLO-Y4 osteocytes

Lack of physical activity results in muscle atrophy and bone loss, which can be counteracted by mechanical loading. Similar molecular signaling pathways are involved in the adaptation of muscle and bone mass to mechanical loading. Whether anabolic and metabolic factors regulating muscle mass, i.e., insulin-like growth factor-I isoforms (IGF-I Ea), mechano growth factor (MGF), myostatin, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), or hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), are also produced by osteocytes in bone in response to mechanical loading is largely unknown. Therefore, we investigated whether mechanical loading by pulsating fluid flow (PFF) modulates the mRNA and/or protein levels of muscle anabolic and metabolic factors in MLO-Y4 osteocytes. Unloaded MLO-Y4 osteocytes expressed mRNA of VEGF, HGF, IGF-I Ea, and MGF, but not myostatin. PFF increased mRNA levels of IGF-I Ea (2.1-fold) and MGF (2.0-fold) at a peak shear stress rate of 44Pa/s, but not at 22Pa/s. PFF at 22 Pa/s increased VEGF mRNA levels (1.8- to 2.5-fold) and VEGF protein release (2.0- to 2.9-fold). Inhibition of nitric oxide production decreased (2.0-fold) PFF-induced VEGF protein release. PFF at 22 Pa/s decreased HGF mRNA levels (1.5-fold) but increased HGF protein release (2.3-fold). PFF-induced HGF protein release was nitric oxide dependent. Our data show that mechanically loaded MLO-Y4 osteocytes differentially express anabolic and metabolic factors involved in the adaptive response of muscle to mechanical loading (i.e., IGF-I Ea, MGF, VEGF, and HGF). Similarly to muscle fibers, mechanical loading enhanced expression levels of these growth factors in MLO-Y4 osteocytes. Although in MLO-Y4 osteocytes expression levels of IGF-I Ea and MGF of myostatin were very low or absent, it is known that the activity of osteoblasts and osteoclasts is strongly affected by them. The abundant expression levels of these factors in muscle cells, in combination with low expression in MLO-Y4 osteocytes, provide a possibility that growth factors expressed in muscle could affect signaling in bone cells

Wet Adhesion and Adhesive Locomotion of Snails on Anti-Adhesive Non-Wetting Surfaces

Creating surfaces capable of resisting liquid-mediated adhesion is extremely difficult due to the strong capillary forces that exist between surfaces. Land snails use this to adhere to and traverse across almost any type of solid surface of any orientation (horizontal, vertical or inverted), texture (smooth, rough or granular) or wetting property (hydrophilic or hydrophobic) via a layer of mucus. However, the wetting properties that enable snails to generate strong temporary attachment and the effectiveness of this adhesive locomotion on modern super-slippy superhydrophobic surfaces are unclear. Here we report that snail adhesion overcomes a wide range of these microscale and nanoscale topographically structured non-stick surfaces. For the one surface which we found to be snail resistant, we show that the effect is correlated with the wetting response of the surface to a weak surfactant. Our results elucidate some critical wetting factors for the design of anti-adhesive and bio-adhesion resistant surfaces