Dynamic Factor Models for Multivariate Count Data: An Application to Stock-Market Trading Activity

We propose a dynamic factor model for the analysis of multivariate time series count data. Our model allows for idiosyncratic as well as common serially correlated latent factors in order to account for potentially complex dynamic interdependence between series of counts. The model is estimated under alternative count distributions (Poisson and negative binomial). Maximum Likelihood estimation requires high-dimensional numerical integration in order to marginalize the joint distribution with respect to the unobserved dynamic factors. We rely upon the Monte-Carlo integration procedure known as Efficient Importance Sampling which produces fast and numerically accurate estimates of the likelihood function. The model is applied to time series data consisting of numbers of trades in 5 minutes intervals for five NYSE stocks from two industrial sectors. The estimated model accounts for all key dynamic and distributional features of the data. We find strong evidence of a common factor which we interpret as reflecting market-wide news. In contrast, sector-specific factors are found to be statistically insignifficant. --Dynamic latent variables,Importance sampling,Mixture of distribution models,Poisson distribution,Simulated Maximum Likelihood

Atrial fibrillation and its determinants after radiofrequency ablation of chronic common atrial flutter

Aim. Atrial fibrillation (AFib) is a major clinical issue and its occurrence is the main problem after catheter ablation of atrial flutter. The long-term occurrence of AFib after common atrial flutter ablation is still matter of debate as it may influence the therapeutic approach. So, the aim of our study was to analyze the determinants and the time course of AFib after radiofrequency catheter ablation of chronic common atrial flutter. Methods and Results. 89 consecutive patients (67.5 ± 12.0 yrs) underwent RF ablation of chronic common atrial flutter. 38.2 % had previous history of paroxysmal AFib. 51% had no underlying structural heart disease. Over a mean follow-up of 38 ± 13 months, the occurrence rate of AFib progressively increased up to 32.9% at the end of follow-up. The median occurrence time for AFib was 8 months. AFib occurrence was significantly associated with previous AFib history (P=0.01) but not with the presence of underlying heart disease (P=n.s.). Of particular interest, in our study, AFib never occurred in patients without previous AFib history. Palpitations after chronic common atrial flutter ablation was mostly related to AFib. Conclusion. In conclusion, after chronic common atrial flutter ablation, AFib incidence progressively increased over the follow-up in all patients. Patients with prior AFib history appeared to be a very high risk group. In these patients, closer monitoring is mandatory and the persistent risk of AFib recurrences may justify prolonged anticoagulation policy

Mounting structure

A mounting platform for heat producing instruments operated in a narrow equilibrium temperature range comprises a grid-like structure with relatively large openings therein. The instruments are secured to and thermally coupled with the grid surface facing the instruments. Excess heat from the instruments is selectively radiated to the ambient through openings in the grid, the grid surfaces at these openings exhibiting low thermal emissivity and adsorptivity. The remainder of the grid is maintained at the equilibrium temperature and is covered with a thermal insulating blanket. Thus, the entire system including the platform and instruments is maintained substantially isothermal, whereby the instruments remain in fixed physical relationship to one another

Leaf-Encapsulated Vaccines: Agroinfiltration and Transient Expression of the Antigen Staphylococcal Endotoxin B in Radish Leaves.

Transgene introgression is a major concern associated with transgenic plant-based vaccines. Agroinfiltration can be used to selectively transform nonreproductive organs and avoid introgression. Here, we introduce a new vaccine modality in which Staphylococcal enterotoxin B (SEB) genes are agroinfiltrated into radishes (Raphanw sativus L.), resulting in transient expression and accumulation of SEB in planta. This approach can simultaneously express multiple antigens in a single leaf. Furthermore, the potential of high-throughput vaccine production was demonstrated by simultaneously agroinfiltrating multiple radish leaves using a multichannel pipette. The expression of SEB was detectable in two leaf cell types (epidermal and guard cells) in agroinfiltrated leaves. ICR mice intranasally immunized with homogenized leaves agroinfiltrated with SEB elicited detectable antibody to SEB and displayed protection against SEB-induced interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) production. The concept of encapsulating antigens in leaves rather than purifying them for immunization may facilitate rapid vaccine production during an epidemic disease

Screening for Chlamydia trachomatis in Low-Risk Obstetric Patients

Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis in our rural obstetric population and assess the appropriateness of selective vs. universal prenatal screening

Mathematical modeling of char reactivity in Ar-O2 and CO2-O2 mixtures

The kinetics of the coal char + O2 reaction was studied by thermogravimetry. Low sample masses were employed to ensure an approximate kinetic regime. Special emphasis was placed on clarifying how the recirculation of the flue gases (i.e. the presence of a high amount of CO2 at low O2 concentrations) affects the reactivity. The ambient gas concentrations varied from 100% O2 to 5% O2 in CO2 or Ar. A semi-empirical model is presented which can approximate the reactivity changes during the conversion and takes into account the heterogeneity of the samples. A least squares evaluation procedure resulted in a good fit to the experimental data over a wide variety of temperature programs and ambient gas concentrations. The overall burn-off time of the samples varied from eight minutes to three hours depending on the experimental conditions. The reaction rate was found to be proportional to the O2 concentration of the ambient gas and was not influenced by the presence of high amounts of CO2. The reaction started with a sharp acceleration period indicating an initial activation of the char surface

Safeguards Envelope: The First Steps

The possibility exists for real time accountancy and assay of nuclear materials as they move through a reprocessing facility. This project aims to establish working parameters and local figures of merit to identify possible diversion in real time with minimal operational impact. Factors such as pH, NOX gas concentration, flow speeds and radiation fields are rarely taken into account in safeguards methodologies and will be included to increase the confidence of location and assay of nuclear materials. An adaptable, real data model is being created of the contactors of the Advanced Fuel Cycle Facility and will be analyzed using the appropriate modeling codes. This model will then be subjected to three, diversion scenarios and a figure of merit methodology will be utilized to create the operational parameters under which these diversion scenarios would be detected. This analysis for figure of merit methodology will include statistical fluctuations, operator error, and a rudimentary analysis of transient conditions. The long term goal of the project includes expansion universally over the plant, methods of detection without requiring access to proprietary information, and an evaluation of the requirements for future figure of merit methodologies