Building prognostic models for adverse outcomes in a prospective cohort of hospitalised patients with acute leptospirosis infection in the Philippines

Leptospirosis is endemic to the Philippines. Ten per cent of cases will develop severe or fatal disease. Predicting progression to severity is difficult. Risk factors have been suggested, but few attempts have been made to create predictive models to guide clinical decisions. We present two models to predict the risk of mortality and progression to severe disease. Data was used from a prospective cohort study conducted between 2011 and 2013 in San Lazaro Hospital, Manila. Predictive factors were identified from a literature review. A strategy utilizing backwards stepwise-elimination and multivariate fractional polynomials identified key predictive factors. A total of 203 patients met the inclusion criteria. The overall mortality rate was 6.84%. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that neutrophil counts [OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.15–1.67] and platelet counts [OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.97–0.99] were predictive for risk of mortality. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that male sex (OR 3.29, 95% CI 1.22–12.57) and number of days between symptom onset and antibiotic use (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.08–1.53) were predictive for risk of progression to severe disease. The multivariable prognostic models for the risks of mortality and progression to severe disease developed could be useful in guiding clinical management by the early identification of patients at risk of adverse outcomes

Frequent Community Use of Antibiotics among a Low-Economic Status Population in Manila, the Philippines: A Prospective Assessment Using a Urine Antibiotic Bioassay

The widespread unregulated use of antibiotics without medical consultation contributes to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Southeast Asian countries. This study investigated antibiotic use before hospital consultation. In aprospective observational study from February 2, 2015, to July 2, 2015, we enrolled febrile patients attending theemergency room in San Lazaro Hospital, Manila, the Philippines.Aurine sample was collected and a bioassay was used todetect antibiotic activity in urine using Bacillus stearothermophilus (ATCC7953), Escherichia coli (ATCC25922), andStreptococcus pyogenes (ATCC19615). Patients or caregivers reported their medication history, clinical information, andsocioeconomic status. During the study period, 410 patients were enrolled. The median (interquartile range) age was 14(7?23) years and 158 (39%) reported prior antibiotic use, predominantly a beta-lactam antibiotic. A total of 164 (40%,95%confidence interval [CI]: 35?45) patients were urine bioassay positive with any of three organisms. The Bacillus assay wasthe most sensitive, detecting 162 (99%, 95%CI: 96?100) cases. Among bioassay positive patients, dengue (N= 91, 55%,95% CI: 48?63) was the most frequent diagnosis, followed by other viral infections, including measles, rubella, and mumps (N= 17, 10%,95%CI: 6?16). Patients with a positive bioassay were significantly more likely to be from the lowestincome group (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1?2.6) and required hospital admission (AOR: 2.1; 95% CI:1.3?3.5). Unnecessary antibiotic use for febrile illnesses before hospital consultation is common in a low-income, highly populated urban community in Manila. Education targeting this group should be implemented to reduce unnecessaryantibiotic use

A prospective observational study of community-acquired bacterial bloodstream infections in Metro Manila, the Philippines

Community-acquired bacterial bloodstream infections are caused by diverse pathogens with changing antimicrobial-resistance patterns. In low-middle income countries in Southeast Asia, where dengue fever is endemic and a leading cause of fever, limited information is available about bacterial bloodstream infections due to challenges of implementing a blood culture service. This study describes bacterial bloodstream pathogens and antimicrobial-resistance patterns in Metro Manila, the Philippines. We aimed to identify the proportion of patients with a positive blood culture, the bacteria isolated and their antimicrobial resistance patterns, and the clinical characteristics of these patients, in this dengue endemic area. We conducted a prospective observational study in a single hospital enrolling febrile patients clinically suspected of having a community-acquired bacterial bloodstream infection between 1st July 2015 and 30th June 2019. Each patient had a blood culture and additional diagnostic tests according to their clinical presentation. We enrolled 1315 patients and a significant positive blood culture was found in 77 (5.9%) including Staphylococcus aureus (n=20), Salmonella enterica Typhi (n=18), Escherichia coli (n=16), Streptococcus pneumoniae (n=3) and Burkholderia pseudomallei (n=2). Thirty-four patients had meningococcal disease diagnosed by culture (n=8) or blood PCR (n=26). Additional confirmed diagnoses included leptospirosis (n=177), dengue virus infection (n=159) and respiratory diphtheria (n=50). There were 79 (6.0%, 95%CI 4.8%−7.4%) patients who died within 28 days of enrollment. Patients with a positive blood culture were significantly more likely to die than patients with negative culture (15.2 % vs 4.4 %, P<0.01). Among S. aureus isolates, 11/20 (55%) were methicillin-resistant (MRSA) and ST30 : USA1100 was dominant sequence type (88.9%). Antimicrobial-susceptibility was well preserved in S. enterica Typhi. Among hospitalized patients with clinically suspected community-acquired bacterial bloodstream infection in Metro Manila, the Philippines, 5.9% had a blood culture confirmed infection of whom 15.6% died. S. aureus, including a significant number of MRSA (USA1100 clones), S. enterica Typhi, E.coli and Neisseria meningitidis were frequently identified pathogens

Diagnostic Accuracy of Recombinant Immunoglobulin-like Protein A-Based IgM ELISA for the Early Diagnosis of Leptospirosis in the Philippines

Background Leptospirosis is an important but largely under-recognized public health problem in the tropics. Establishment of highly sensitive and specific laboratory diagnosis is essential to reveal the magnitude of problem and to improve treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of a recombinant LigA protein based IgM ELISA during outbreaks in the clinical-setting of a highly endemic country. Methodology/Principal Findings A prospective study was conducted from October 2011 to September 2013 at a national referral hospital for infectious diseases in Manila, Philippines. Patients who were hospitalized with clinically suspected leptospirosis were enrolled. Plasma and urine were collected on admission and/or at discharge and tested using the LigA-IgM ELISA and a whole cellbased IgM ELISA. Sensitivity and specificity of these tests were evaluated with cases diagnosed by microscopic agglutination test (MAT), culture and LAMP as the composite reference standard and blood bank donors as healthy controls: the mean+3 standard deviation optical density value of healthy controls was used as the cut-off limit (0.062 for the LigA-IgM ELISA and 0.691 for the whole cell-based IgM ELISA). Of 304 patients enrolled in the study, 270 (89.1%) were male and the median age was 30.5 years; 167 (54.9%) were laboratory confirmed. The sensitivity and ROC curve AUC for the LigA-IgM ELISA was significantly greater than the whole cell-based IgM ELISA (69.5% vs. 54.3%, p<0.01; 0.90 vs. 0.82, p<0.01) on admission, but not at discharge. The specificity of LigA-IgM ELISA and whole cell-based IgM ELISA were not significantly different (98% vs. 97%). Among 158 MAT negative patients, 53 and 28 were positive by LigA- and whole cell-based IgM ELISA, respectively; if the laboratory confirmation was re-defined by LigA-IgM ELISA and LAMP, the clinical findings were more characteristic of leptospirosis than the diagnosis based on MAT/ culture/LAMP. Conclusions/Significance The newly developed LigA-IgM ELISA is more sensitive than the whole cell-based IgM based ELISA. Although the final diagnosis must be validated by more specific tests, LigAIgM ELISA could be a useful diagnostic test in a real clinical-setting, where diagnosis is needed in the early phase of infection

Study enrollment and sample collection.

<p>Study enrollment and sample collection.</p

A prospective observational study of community-acquired bacterial bloodstream infections in Metro Manila, the Philippines. Data file of the study

Dataset associated with "A prospective observational study of community-acquired bacterial bloodstream infections in Metro Manila, the Philippines"

Comparison of sensitivity of diagnostic examination and day of illness among laboratory confirmed cases (N = 153).

<p>This figure included pair serum results of MAT and LigA / Patoc-based IgM ELISA. 11 plasma samples and 12 urine samples were not included in this analysis due to a lack of information. Vertical bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.</p

Comparison of sensitivity between serovars (N = 134).

<p>Vertical bars indicate 95% confidence intervals.</p