Large tectonic earthquakes induce sharp temporary decreases in seismic velocity in Volcán de Colima, Mexico

International audienceWe used the ambient noise cross-correlation and stretching methods to calculate variations in seismic velocities in the region of Volcán de Colima, Mexico. More than 15 years of continuous records were processed, producing long time series of velocity variations related to volcanic activity, meteorological effects, and earthquakes. Velocity variations associated with eruptive activity are tenuous, which probably reflects the open state of the volcano during the study period. Fifteen events among 26 regional tectonic earthquakes produced sharp, temporary decreases in seismic velocities, which then recovered progressively following a linear trend as a function of the logarithm of time. For the 15 events, the amplitude of the perturbation increased almost linearly with the logarithm of the amplitude of the seismic waves that shook the edifice. The most dramatic apparent velocity variation was a drop of up to 2.6% during the nearby M7.4 Tecomán earthquake in 2003. In order to locate the perturbation in the horizontal plane we applied an inverse method based on the radiative transfer approximation. We also used an original approach based on the frequency dependence of velocity variations to estimate the depth of the perturbation. Our results show that the velocity variation was well localized in the shallow layers (< 800 m) of the volcano, with almost no variations occurring outside the edifice. We discuss several possible interpretations and conclude that the most plausible explanation for the velocity decreases is the nonlinear elastic behavior of the granular volcanic material and its mechanical softening induced by transient strains

Quantification of magma ascent rate through rockfall monitoring at the growing/collapsing lava dome of Volcán de Colima, Mexico

International audienceThe most recent eruptive phase of Volc'an de Colima, Mexico, started in 1998 and was characterized by dome growth with a variable effusion rate, interrupted intermittently by explosive eruptions. Between November 2009 and June 2011, activity at the dome was mostly limited to a lobe on the western side where it had previously started overflowing the crater rim, leading to the generation of rockfall events. As a consequence of this, no significant increase in dome volume was perceivable and the rate of magma ascent, a crucial parameter for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment could no longer be quantified via measurements of the dome's dimensions. Here, we present alternative approaches to quantify the magma ascent rate. We estimate the volume of individual rockfalls through the detailed analysis of sets of photographs (before and after individual rockfall events). The relationship between volume and infrared images of the freshly exposed dome surface and the seismic signals related to the rockfall events were then investigated. Larger rockfall events exhibited a correlation between its previously estimated volume and the surface temperature of the freshly exposed dome surface, as well as the mean temperature of rockfall mass distributed over the slope. We showed that for larger events, the volume of the rockfall correlates with the maximum temperature of the newly exposed lava dome as well as a proxy for seismic energy. It was therefore possible to calibrate the seismic signals using the volumes estimated from photographs and the count of rockfalls over a certain period was used to estimate the magma extrusion flux for the period investigated. Over the course of the measurement period, significant changes were observed in number of rockfalls, rockfall volume and hence averaged extrusion rate. The extrusion rate was not constant: it increased from 0.008±0.003 to 0.02±0.007m3 s−1 during 2010 and dropped down to 0.008±0.003m3 s−1 again in March 2011. In June 2011, magma extrusion had come to a halt. The methodology presented represents a reliable tool to constrain the growth rate of domes that are repeatedly affected by partial collapses. There is a good correlation between thermal and seismic energies and rockfall volume. Thus it is possible to calibrate the seismic records associated with the rockfalls (a continuous monitoring tool) to improve volcano monitoring at volcanoes with active dome growth

Izloženost genotoksičnim agensima iz životnog okoliša tijekom prenatalnog razvoja i djetinjstva

Health disorders and diseases related to environmental exposure in children such as cancer and immunologic disturbances (asthma, allergies) are on the rise. However, complex transplacental and prepubertal genotoxicology is given very limited consideration, even though intrauterine development and early childhood may be critical for elucidating the cancer aetiology. The foetus is transplacentally exposed to contaminants in food and environment such as various chemicals, drugs, radiochemically contaminated water and air. Target organs of xenobiotic action may differ between the mother and the foetus due to specific stage of developmental physiology and enzyme distribution. This in turn may lead to different levels of clastogenic and aneugenic metabolites of the same xenobiotic in the mother and the foetus. Adult’s protective behaviour is not sufficient to isolate children from radioisotopes, pesticides, toxic metals and metalloids, environmental tobacco smoke, endocrine disrupting chemicals, and various food contaminants, which are just a part of the stressors present in a polluted environment. In order to improve legislation related to foetus and child exposure to genotoxic and possibly carcinogenic agents, oncologists, paediatricians, environmental health specialists, and genotoxicologists should work together much more closely to make a more effective use of accumulated scientific data, with the final aim to lower cancer incidence and mortality.Unatoč velikim naporima da se smanji okolišna izloženost u djece se dalje bilježi trend porasta pojavnosti karcinoma i imunosnih poremećaja (astma, alergije). Premda su intrauterini razvoj i rano djetinjstvo kritično razdoblje za tumačenje etiologije nastanka karcinoma, transplacentalna i prepubertetna genotoksikologija do danas su slabo istražene. Fetus je transplacentalno izložen brojnim fizikalnim i kemijskim čimbenicima: kontaminantima iz hrane i okoliša, radiokemijski kontaminiranoj vodi, zraku te lijekovima. Ciljna tkiva za djelovanje ksenobiotika mogu biti različita u majke i fetusa zbog različitosti u razvojnoj fiziologiji i distribuciji enzima. Zbog toga u organizmu majke i fetusa mogu nastati različite razine klastogenih i aneugenih metabolita istog ksenobiotika. Zaštitna uloga odraslih u namjeri da spriječe negativne utjecaje onečišćenog okoliša na djetetovo zdravlje često je ograničena jer su radioizotopi, olovo, PCB, pasivno pušenje, živa, endokrino aktivne tvari, pesticidi i kontaminanti prisutni u svim životnim područjima tijekom razvoja i rasta djeteta. Kako bi se poboljšalo zakonodavstvo vezano uz izloženost djece genotoksičnim i vjerojatno kancerogenim tvarima, tijekom razvoja potrebna je bolja suradnja onkologa, pedijatara, stručnjaka zdravstvene ekologije i genotoksikologa. Na taj način ostvarilo bi se uspješnije iskorištavanje postojećih znanstvenih podataka u cilju smanjenja incidencije karcinoma i mortaliteta

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradients

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers

Vocabulario de la sociedad civil, la ruralidad y los movimientos sociales en América Latina

El Vocabulario de la Sociedad Civil, la Ruralidad y los Movimientos Sociales en América Latina tiene como objetivo desarrollar vocablos relacionados con temas de gran trascendencia para la vida colectiva de la población Latinoamericana; pretende introducir a estudiantes, personas del ámbito académico y activistas en la comprensión de estas categorías de análisis. A través de la mirada de 70 especialistas que participaron en este vocabulario, es posible comprender muchos de los términos que se utilizan dentro de la investigación social y áreas relacionadas con las ciencias políticas, ambientales y rurales, a partir de una mayor explicación y detalle. Es por ello que se inserta este trabajo desde una mirada colectiva y amplia de los conceptos que se exponen. En este libro podrá encontrar las ideas de varios autores y autoras de distintas universidades, con una visión multi, inter y transdisciplinaria. El esfuerzo que se realizó para conjuntar varios términos y analizar su compleja red de interpretaciones, permitirá que este manuscrito pueda ser consultado por estudiantes, personas del ámbito científico-académico, y ciudadanía; porque contiene el estado del arte, la historia del paulatino avance de múltiples conceptos y su vigencia en el contexto actual

2021 taxonomic update for phylum Negarnaviricota (Riboviria: Orthornavirae), including the large orders Bunyavirales and Mononegavirales

peer reviewedIn March 2021, following the annual International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) ratification vote on newly proposed taxa, the phylum Negarnaviricota was amended and mended. The phylum was expanded by four families (Aliusviridae, Crepuscuviridae, yriaviridae, and Natareviridae), three subfamilies (Alpharhabdovirinae, Betarhabdovirinae, and ammarhabdovirinae), 42 genera, and 200 species. Thirty-nine species were renamed and/ or moved and seven species were abolished. This article presents the updated taxonomy of Negarnaviricota as now accepted by the ICTV