Understanding the Hydrological Response of Changed Environmental Boundary Conditions in Semi-Arid Regions: Role of Model Choice and Model Calibration

Arid and semi-arid basins in the Western United States (US) have been significantly impacted by human alterations to the water cycle and are among the most susceptible to water stress from urbanization and climate change. The climate of the Western US is projected to change in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Combined with land use/land cover (LULC) change, it can influence both surface and groundwater resources, both of which are a significant source of water in the US. Responding to this challenge requires an improved understanding of how we are vulnerable and the development of strategies for managing future risk. In this dissertation, I explored how hydrology of semi-arid regions responds to LULC and climate change and how hydrologic projections are influenced by the choice and calibration of models. The three main questions I addressed with this dissertation are: 1. Is it important to calibrate models for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes? 2. Do LSMs make reasonable estimates of groundwater recharge in the western US? 3. How might recharge change under projected climate change in the western US? Results from this study suggested that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. Our results also highlighted that LSMs have the potential to capture the spatial and temporal patterns as well as seasonality of recharge at large scales. Therefore, LSMs (specifically VIC and Noah) can be used as a tool for estimating current and future recharge in data limited regions. Average annual recharge is projected to increase in about 62% of the region and decrease in about 38% of the western US in future and varies significantly based on location (-50% - +94 for near future and -90% to >100% for far future). Recharge is expected to decrease significantly (-13%) in the South region in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge in both in the near (+5.1%) and far (+9.0%) future. Overall, this study suggested that land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change significantly impacts hydrology in semi-arid regions. Model choice and model calibrations also influence the hydrological predictions. Hydrological projections from models have associated uncertainty, but still provide valuable information for water managers with long term water management planning.Release 01-Jan-201

Comparing potential recharge estimates from three Land Surface Models across the western US

Groundwater is a major source of water in the western US. However, there are limited recharge estimates in this region due to the complexity of recharge processes and the challenge of direct observations. Land surface Models (LSMs) could be a valuable tool for estimating current recharge and projecting changes due to future climate change. In this study, simulations of three LSMs (Noah, Mosaic and VIC) obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) are used to estimate potential recharge in the western US. Modeled recharge was compared with published recharge estimates for several aquifers in the region. Annual recharge to precipitation ratios across the study basins varied from 0.01% to 15% for Mosaic, 3.2% to 42% for Noah, and 6.7% to 31.8% for VIC simulations. Mosaic consistently underestimates recharge across all basins. Noah captures recharge reasonably well in wetter basins, but overestimates it in drier basins. VIC slightly overestimates recharge in drier basins and slightly underestimates it for wetter basins. While the average annual recharge values vary among the models, the models were consistent in identifying high and low recharge areas in the region. Models agree in seasonality of recharge occurring dominantly during the spring across the region. Overall, our results highlight that LSMs have the potential to capture the spatial and temporal patterns as well as seasonality of recharge at large scales. Therefore, LSMs (specifically VIC and Noah) can be used as a tool for estimating future recharge in data limited regions

Multi-gauge Calibration for Modeling the Semi-Arid Santa Cruz Watershed in Arizona-Mexico Border Area Using SWAT

In most watershed-modeling studies, flow is calibrated at one monitoring site, usually at the watershed outlet. Like many arid and semi-arid watersheds, the main reach of the Santa Cruz watershed, located on the Arizona-Mexico border, is discontinuous for most of the year except during large flood events, and therefore the flow characteristics at the outlet do not represent the entire watershed. Calibration is required at multiple locations along the Santa Cruz River to improve model reliability. The objective of this study was to best portray surface water flow in this semi-arid watershed and evaluate the effect of multi-gauge calibration on flow predictions. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated at seven monitoring stations, which improved model performance and increased the reliability of flow predictions, in the Santa Cruz watershed. The most sensitive parameters to affect flow were found to be curve number (CN2), soil evaporation and compensation coefficient (ESCO), threshold water depth in shallow aquifer for return flow to occur (GWQMN), base flow alpha factor (ALPHA_BF), and effective hydraulic conductivity of the soil layer (CH_K2). In comparison, when the model was established with a single calibration at the watershed outlet, flow predictions at other monitoring gauges were inaccurate. This study emphasizes the importance of multi-gauge calibration to develop a reliable watershed model in arid and semi-arid environments. The developed model, with further calibration of water quality parameters will be an integral part of the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem portfolio Model (SCWEPM), an online decision support tool, to assess the impacts of climate change and urban growth in the Santa Cruz watershed

Evaluating five remote sensing based single-source surface energy balance models for estimating daily evapotranspiration in a humid subtropical climate

In the last two decades, a number of single-source surface energy balance (SEB) models have been proposed for mapping evapotranspiration (ET); however, there is no clear guidance on which models are preferable under different conditions. In this paper, we tested five models-Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping ET at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), and operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop)-to identify the single-source SEB models most appropriate for use in the humid southeastern United States. ET predictions from these models were compared with measured ET at four sites (marsh, grass, and citrus surfaces) for 149 cloud-free Landsat image acquisition days between 2000 and 2010. The overall model evaluation statistics showed that SEES generally outperformed the other models in terms of estimating daily ET from different land covers (e.g., the root mean squared error (RMSE) was 0.74 mm day(-1)). SSEBop was consistently the worst performing model and overestimated ET at all sites (RMSE = 1.67 mm day(-1)), while the other models typically fell in between SSEBop and SEBS. However, for short grass conditions, SEBAL, METRIC, and S-SEBI appear to work much better than SEBS. Overall, our study suggests that SEBS may be the best SEB model in humid regions, although it may require modifications to work better over short vegetation.clos

Modelling Development of Riparian Ranchlands Using Ecosystem Services at the Aravaipa Watershed, SE Arizona

This paper describes how subdivision and development of rangelands within a remote and celebrated semi-arid watershed near the US–Mexico border might affect multiple ecohydrological services provided, such as recharge of the aquifer, water and sediment yield, water quality, flow rates and downstream cultural and natural resources. Specifically, we apply an uncalibrated watershed model and land-change forecasting scenario to consider the potential effects of converting rangelands to housing developments and document potential changes in hydrological ecosystem services. A new method to incorporate weather data in watershed modelling is introduced. Results of introducing residential development in this fragile arid environment portray changes in the water budget, including increases in surface-water runoff, water yield, and total sediment loading. Our findings also predict slight reductions in lateral soil water, a component of the water budget that is increasingly becoming recognized as critical to maintaining water availability in arid regions. We discuss how the proposed development on shrub/scrub rangelands could threaten to sever imperative ecohydrological interactions and impact multiple ecosystem services. This research highlights rangeland management issues important for the protection of open space, economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services, conservation easements, and incentives to develop markets for these

Framing Scenarios of Binational Water Policy with a Tool to Visualize, Quantify and Valuate Changes in Ecosystem Services

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Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/ location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 degrees longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems