Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan terhadap Nilai Tukar, Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia

This paper analyzes the impact of trade liberalization in Indonesia with the aim of this paper was to discover (1) the effect of trade liberalization on the exchange rate, inflation rate and economic growth ; (2) the effect of the terms of trade on the exchange rate, inflation rate and economic growth as well; \ud This paper used secondary data since 1986 up to 2007 and using the two-stage least squares model (2SLS model) , which the analyses indicate that (1) trade liberalization has a positive significant effect on the exchange rate, inflation rate and economic growth while the effect is negative significant on the exchange rate, inflation rate and economic growth directly; and trade liberalization has a positive significant effect on the exchange rate, inflation rate and economic growth in Indonesia indirectly; (2) there are positive significant effect of exchange rate, inflation rate on the economic growth, while negative significant effect of the trade tax revenue on the social welfare directly; (3) the terms of trade has a positive significant effect on the total tax revenue directly and positive significant on the social welfare indirectly, while it has a negative effect on the trade tax revenue as well as on the social welfare indirectly, eventhough these effect were not significant

Product Competitiveness and Market Penetration in South Sulawesi: Mapping of Leading Export Commodities

This study analyzes the competitiveness and market penetration of the leading export commodities of South Sulawesi. The Klassen typology and Export Product Dynamic method used to map the leading export commodities based on the competitiveness, market penetration power, and export dynamic of each commodity. This study focuses on measuring competitiveness and market penetration of each leading export commodity by using the "Revealed Comparative Advantage" and "Index of Export Market Penetration" indicators.This study also aims to analyze the determinants of competitiveness and market penetration of these leading export commodities, as well as their ability to encourage increased economic prosperity and create an effective and harmonious business environment in South Sulawesi.This study found that are Nickel, Lac, Fish, and Cocoa are leading export commodities of South Sulawesi which have very strong competitiveness and high market penetration. Meanwhile, the leading export commodities of South Sulawesi which have very strong competitiveness but moderate market penetration are Salt, then commodities have strong competitiveness and moderate market penetration are Coffee, Preparations of Meat and Fish, and Residues from food industries. Furthermore, Fruits; Oil Seeds; and Sugars are commodity that have strong competitiveness but low market penetration. There are six commodities in rising star position and five commodities in a loss opportunity position

Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pengangguran terhadap Kesenjangan Output: Pendekatan VECM

Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) untuk mengestimasi efek jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antar variabel dari data deret waktu. Variabel inflasi dan pengangguran sebagai variabel independen dan variabel output gap sebagai variabel dependen. Penelitian ini memiliki tujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan antar variabel dan untuk mengetahui respon dari variabel independen terhadap shock dari variabel lain yang ada didalam model VECM. Hasil kointegrasi menunjukkan bahwa terjadi kointegrasi antar variabel. Estimasi jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa variabel inflasi dan pengangguran pada lag ke 2 berpengaruh positif pada taraf lima persen yaitu masing-masing sebesar 0.009295 persen dan 0.051819 persen. Dari analisis kausalitas Granger terdapat hubungan kausalitas searah antara variabel output gap (OGAP) dan inflasi (INF), sementara variabel output gap (OGAP) dan pengangguran (UN) juga memiliki hubungan kausalitas searah. Berdasarkan hasil analisis Impulse Response Function (IRF) memperlihatkan semua variabel bergerak fluktuatif dan diamati bahwa butuh waktu 16 bulan bagi output gap bisa kembali mencapai nilai keseimbangannya ketika terjadi peningkatan angka inflasi yang disertai dengan pergerakan variabel pengangguran yang relatif stagnan. Hasil analisis Variance Decomposite (VD) menunjukkan bahwa respon pergerakan output gap lebih dipengaruhi oleh shock inflasi dari pada shock pengangguran. Kata Kunci: Output Gap, Inflasi, Pengangguran, Model Koreksi, VEC

Problematika Ekonomi dan Pandemi Covid-19

Indonesia mengonfirmasi kasus pertama infeksi virus corona penyebab Covid-19 pada awal Maret 2020. Sejak itu, berbagai upaya penanggulangan dilakukan pemerintah untuk meredam dampak dari pandemi Covid-19 di berbagai sektor. Hampir seluruh sektor terdampak, tak hanya kesehatan. Sektor ekonomi juga mengalami dampak serius akibat pandemi virus corona. Pembatasan aktivitas masyarakat berpengaruh pada aktivitas bisnis yang kemudian berimbas pada perekonomian