Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. This paper presents a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrates its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physics-based model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns, which can lead to the identification of model structural errors

Growth and alteration of uranium-rich microlite

Uranium-rich microlite, a pyrochlore-group mineral, occurs in 440 Ma old lithium pegmatites of the Mozambique Belt in East Africa. Microlite exhibits a pronounced growth zoning, with a U-free core surrounded by a U-rich rim (UO{sub 2} up to 17 wt.%). The core exhibits conjugate sets of straight cracks (cleavage planes) which provided pathways for a late-stage U-enriched pegmatitic fluid which interacted with the U-free microlite to produce a distinct U enrichment along the cracks and led to the formation of the U-rich rim. Following the stage of U incorporation into microlite, a second generation of hydrothermal fluids deposited mica along the cleavage planes. Subsequent to these two hydrothermal stages, the host rock was uplifted and subjected to intense low-temperature alteration during which Na, Ca and F were leached from the microlite crystals. This alteration also led to a hydration of microlite, but there is no evidence of U loss. These low-temperature alteration effects were only observed in the U-rich rim which is characterized by a large number of irregular cracks which are most probably the result of metamictization, as indicated by electron diffraction images and powder X-ray patterns. The pyrochlore-group minerals provide excellent natural analogues for pyrochlore-based nuclear waste forms, because samples of variable age and with high actinide contents are available

New limits on dark--matter WIMPs from the Heidelberg--Moscow experiment

New results after 0.69 kg yr of measurement with an enriched 76Ge detector of the Heidelberg--Moscow experiment with an active mass of 2.758 kg are presented. An energy threshold of 9 keV and a background level of 0.042 counts/(kg d keV) in the energy region between 15 keV and 40 keV was reached.The derived limits on the WIMP--nucleon cross section are the most stringent limits on spin--independent interactions obtained to date by using essentially raw data without background subtraction.Comment: 8 pages (latex) including 5 postscript figures and 2 tables. To appear in Phys. Rev. D, 15. December 199

New constraints on WIMPs from the Canfranc IGEX dark matter search

The IGEX Collaboration enriched 76Ge double-beta decay detectors are currently operating in the Canfranc Underground Laboratory with an overburden of 2450 m.w.e. A recent upgrade has made it possible to use them in a search for WIMPs. A new exclusion plot has been derived for WIMP-nucleon spin-independent interaction. To obtain this result, 30 days of data from one IGEX detector, which has an energy threshold of ~4 keV, have been considered. These data improve the exclusion limits derived from other germanium diode experiments in the ~50 GeV DAMA region, and show that with a moderate improvement of the background below 10 keV, the DAMA region may be tested with an additional 1 kg-year of exposure.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Physics Letter

Particle Dark Matter Physics: An Update

This write--up gives a rather elementary introduction into particle physics aspects of the cosmological Dark Matter puzzle. A fairly comprehensive list of possible candidates is given; in each case the production mechanism and possible ways to detect them (if any) are described. I then describe detection of the in my view most promising candidates, weakly interacting massive particles or WIMPs, in slightly more detail. The main emphasis will be on recent developments.Comment: Invited talk at the 5th Workshop on Particle Physics Phenomenology, Pune, India, January 1998; 21 pages, LaTeX with equation.st

Charge conservation and time-varying speed of light

It has been recently claimed that cosmologies with time dependent speed of light might solve some of the problems of the standard cosmological scenario, as well as inflationary scenarios. In this letter we show that most of these models, when analyzed in a consistent way, lead to large violations of charge conservation. Thus, they are severly constrained by experiment, including those where $c$ is a power of the scale factor and those whose source term is the trace of the energy-momentum tensor. In addition, early Universe scenarios with a sudden change of $c$ related to baryogenesis are discarded.Comment: 4 page

Search for an annual modulation of dark-matter signals with a germanium spectrometer at the Sierra Grande Laboratory

Data collected during three years with a germanium spectrometer at the Sierra Grande underground laboratory have been analyzed for distinctive features of annual modulation of the signal induced by WIMP dark matter candidates. The main motivation for this analysis was the recent suggestion by the DAMA/NaI Collaboration that a yearly modulation signal could not be rejected at the 90% confidence level when analyzing data obtained with a high-mass low-background scintillator detector. We performed two different analyses of the data: First, the statistical distribution of modulation-significance variables (expected from an experiment running under the conditions of Sierra Grande) was compared with the same variables obtained from the data. Second, the data were analyzed in energy bins as an independent check of the first result and to allow for the possibility of a crossover in the expected signal. In both cases no statistically significant deviation from the null result was found, which could support the hypothesis that the data contain a modulated component. A plot is also presented to enable the comparison of these results to those of the DAMA collaboration.Comment: New version accepted by Astroparticle Physics. Changes suggested by the referee about the theoretical prediction of rates are included. Conclusions remain unaffected. 14 pages, LaTeX, 7 figures. Uses epsfig macr

Final report on the search for neutrinoless double-β decay of 76Ge from the Gotthard underground experiment

We report here on the final results of a search for Ge-76 double-beta decay conducted in the Gotthard underground laboratory. The detector consists of an array of eight high-purity natural germanium crystals totaling 1095 cm^3 fiducial volume. The accumulated data set represents a sensitivity of 10.0 kg yr. No indication of neutrinoless double-beta decay was found. The measured half-life limits are T1/2(0+ --> 0+) > 6.0(3.3) x 10^(23) yr for the transition to the ground state and T1/2(0+ --> 2+) > 1.4(0.65) x 10^(23) yr for the transition to the first excited state at 68% (90%) C.L. From these results we derive an upper limit for the Majorana mass of the neutrino in the range of 1.8 to 6.7 eV depending on matrix-element calculations. The same results allow limits to be set for the right-handed-current parameters: < 2.2 x 10^(-8)